New approaches to the estimation of migration flows from census and administrative data sources

Census data represent an important source of information about migration flows. However, existing estimation procedures based on intercensal projection are often inconvenient to apply and are sensitive to even quite small changes in enumeration completeness. 2 new estimation procedures applicable to data from 2 censuses are developed and illustrated using US data. The 1st method is essentially a modification of traditional intercensal projection techniques, but as a result of working with age groups rather than cohorts, it is simpler to apply and allows mortality of the migrants to be incorporated over the intercensal period. The 2nd method also uses information from 2 censuses, but also uses independent information on the age pattern of migration from administrative sources or from other census questions. The method uses the fact that the age pattern of recent migration is likely to be different from the age distribution of the overall population to distinguish between intercensal change due to migration and apparent intercensal change due to changes in enumeration completeness. If the method's assumptions are met, it is possible to estimate the relative coverage of the 2 censuses as well as the scale of the independent age pattern of migration relative to the coverage of 1 or other of the censuses. The illustrative applications of the methods to US data suggest that both can work reasonably well.     

The relationship between sex-union type and fertility in Costa Rica: an analysis of census data

The study objective was to provide an exploratory analysis of sex-union type and fertility in Costa Rica. 3 hypotheses were introduced on the basis of previous work in the Caribbean Islands--the instability hypothesis, the insecurity hypothesis, and characteristics hypothesis. An attempt was made to answer the question of what the independent effect of consensual union on fertility would be in Costa Rica. The data were taken from the 1973 Costa Rican census sample tapes. The total sample size used was 20,150, which represents a 1 in 80 subsample of the original file. The unit of analysis was women 15 years of age and older classified by type of sex-union. Consensual unions had higher fertility (except at ages 45+), but it was largely due to the fact that they had lower levels on socioeconomic variables in comparison to legal unions. When controls for socioeconomic characteristics were introduced, consensual unions had lower fertility (except at ages 15-24). The most significant finding was that net of socioeconomic variables, consensual unions tended to depress fertility below the more stable legal unions. The underlying mechanism for this effect was stated within the framework of the instability hypothesis, i.e., consensual unions, by virtue of their instability, lead to considerable time lost, which in turn translates into lower levels of fertility in relation to marriage unions. The fact that the independent influence of consensual union on fertility increases in strength with age adds additional credence to the instability hypothesis. As women age, the likelihood of having experienced several union break-ups increases, with the resultant effect of lowering fertility compared with the more stable legal unions. The finding with respect to women in consenual unions aged 15-24 requires further clarification.     

Marriages and fertility among Turkish and Moroccan women in Belgium: results from census data

The patterns of family formation and fertility behavior of Turkish and Moroccan women in Belgium are changing rapidly. The census data (1991) indicate a fertility decline. The reasons are changes in the nuptiality patterns, contraceptive behavior, and migratory flows. The changes are not identical in both communities. Young cohorts postpone their marriage, but this is most prominent among Moroccan women. On the other hand, young Turkish women have a clear preference for smaller families. The changes also differentiate according to migrant "generation" and level of education. The changes are not restricted to Belgium but are also observed in the countries of origin.     

Size and composition of the Arab family: census and survey data

Family characteristics in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Egypt are examined using census data from the period 1965 to 1975. A distinction is made between rural and urban families. The results suggest that the prevalence of the extended family has been exaggerated in previous studies and that most households are predominantly nuclear in type.     

Measuring power and satisfaction in societies with opinion leaders: an axiomatization

Opinion leaders are actors who have some power over their followers as they are able to influence their followers’ choice of action in certain instances. In van den Brink et al. (Homo Oeconomicus 28:161–185, 2011) we proposed a two-action model for societies with opinion leaders. We introduced a power and a satisfaction score and studied some common properties. In this paper we strengthen two of these properties and present two further properties, which allows us to axiomatize both scores for the case that followers require unanimous action inclinations of their opinion leaders to follow them independently from their own action inclinations.     

Language loss in Guatemala: A statistical analysis of the 1994 population census

This study examines several approaches linguists have taken to explain native language attrition. Five attitudinal factors linked to ethnolinguistic vitality are examined: minority status, access to, and participation in, institutions and markets, cultural strength, education, and migration. Each factor was quantified into proxy variables using information compiled from the 1994 Guatemalan national population census. After constructing the data set, the author used regression analysis of the proxy variables to determine the significance of each attitudinal factor. Minority status, participation in institutions and markets, education, and migration all showed statistically significant correlations with language attrition among Maya speakers in Guatemala. Cultural strength, however, did not show a statistically significant correlation to language loss in the country.     

The heterogeneous effects of COVID-19 on labor market flows: evidence from administrative data

The Journal of Economic Inequality - We investigate the short-term effects of COVID-19 on labor market flows and how they are mediated by labor market policy. Using Italian administrative data on a...     

Jordanian emigration: an analysis of migration data

The author uses a log-linear model to analyze data from the Multipurpose Household Survey, Jordanians Abroad 1975. This survey consisted of a six percent multistate stratified random sample of households in the East Bank of Jordan in 1975. Data are included on members of households living abroad, reasons for migration, country of residence, and selected demographic characteristics     

Economic status: a census analysis of thirty-year-old immigrant women in Canada

Dans cette note de recherche, nous utilisons les données du recensement de 1981 pour étudier la situation économique des femmes agées de trente ans au Canada. Nous comparons la population des femmes immigrantes (N= 37000) à celle des femmes nées au Canada (N= 160000), relativement à leurs niveaux éducationnel, occupationnel et financier. Les variables contrôlées individuellement par l‘étude sont: état civil, période d'immigration, origine ethnique, et dimension de la famille. Les résultats de notre recherche montrent que les femmes qui ont immigré alors qu'elles étaient enfant (dix ans ou moins) ont plus de chances que l'ensemble de connaître le succès socio-économique à l’âge adulte; par ailleurs, les femmes arrivées au Canada entre dix et vingt ans occupent le plus bas niveau de succès socio-économique. Il faut cependant noter plusieurs exceptions à ces conclusions générales. Une discussion des résultats dans le contexte de l'hypothèse de l“assimilation‘ indique que celle-ci n'est pas suffisante pour expliquer les différences de succès socio-économique au Canada des femmes nées à l’étranger: un cadre théorique plus large s'avére nécessaire. In this research note we use 1981 Census data to examine the economic position of women thirty years of age in Canada, comparing immigrants (N= 37 000) to the native born population (N= 160 000) with respect to educational, occupational, and income attainment. Variables controlled individually in the study are marital status, period of immigration, ethnic origin, and family size. The findings show that immigrant women who came to Canada as children (ten years old or under) are more likely to have an advantaged socioeconomic standing at age thirty while immigrant females who entered the country as adolescents (ten to twenty years of age) have the lowest levels of socioeconomic achievement. However, there are several exceptions to these overall findings. The results are discussed in the context of the ‘assimilation’ hypothesis, but it would seem that a more comprehensive theoretical framework is needed to explain differences in status attainment among foreign-born women in Canada.     

Defining welfare spells. Coping with problems of survey responses and administrative data

The authors explore how to define a welfare spell and how well surveys measure welfare spells. By comparing survey and administrative data from the Work Pays Demonstration Project in California on the receipt of Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC), they find that a substantial amount of administrative churning occurs in administrative data. Through a mixing model of several break lengths, the authors find that a single definition of a break in welfare is not applicable to all respondents. Additionally, it appears that there is substantial variation in the break lengths respondents utilize. Finally, the authors show that the complexity of defining an accurate break in spells creates difficulties for detecting biases in survey responses.     

Networked framing between source posts and their reposts: an analysis of public opinion on China's microblogs

Retweeting a post on a social media platform is a part of a process of growing significance through which public opinion formation takes place. A ‘retweet count’ on, say Twitter or weibo, can be taken as a measure of user influence. The assumption is that when B retweets A's message, B empathizes with A and wishes to disseminate the message more widely. But this assumption has hardly been tested and preliminary evidence suggests practices for retweeting on Twitter vary. Nor can retweeting practices on Twitter be assumed to apply on weibo. This paper makes the first effort to understand the practice of reposting on China's weibo, focusing on the content of reposts in comparison to that of the original messages. A quantitative comparison is made of the frame [Entman, R. M. (1993). Framing: Toward clarification of a fractured paradigm. Journal of Communication, 43(4), 51–58; Gamson, W. A., & Modigliani, A. (1989). Media discourse and public opinion on nuclear power: A constructionist approach. American Journal of Sociology, 95, 1–37] of the source post of 21 cases, and their reposts. The posts and reposts all refer to the issue of officials being exposed for corruption on Sina Weibo. The study finds sound evidence of networked framing, in which reposters revised frames of the source posters while disseminating them. Although over half of the reposts merely republished the source post without added content, what emerged were new communicative functions, case definitions, and a diagnosis of the consequences of exposing the cases. However, different types of user accounts drew different reposting frames, which points to a consistent paradigm between the source accounts and the reposters. The results are important for understanding the mechanisms behind the formation of public opinion on weibo.     

Variation within households in consent to link survey data to administrative records: evidence from the UK Millennium Cohort Study

This study expands our knowledge of consent in linking survey and administrative data by studying respondents’ behaviour when consenting to link their own records and when consenting to link those of their children. It develops and tests a number of hypothesised mechanisms of consent, some of which were not explored in the past. The hypotheses cover: parental pride, privacy concerns, loyalty to the survey, pre-existing relations with the agency holding the data, and interviewer effects. The study uses data from the longitudinal Millennium Cohort Study to analyse the correlates of consent in multiple domains (i.e. linkage of education, health and economic records). The findings show that respondent’s behaviour vary depending on the consent domain and on the person within the household for whom consent is sought. In particular, the cohort member’s cognitive skills and the main respondent’s privacy concerns have differential effects on consent. On the other hand, loyalty to the survey proxied by the longitudinal response history has a significant and strong impact on consent irrespective of the outcome. The findings also show that interviewers account for a large proportion of variations in consent even after controlling for the characteristics of the interviewer’s assignment area. In total, it is possible to conclude that the significant impact of some of the correlates will lead to sample bias which needs to be accounted for when working with linked survey and administrative data.     

Trends in Asian American racial/ethnic intermarriage: a comparison of 1980 and 1990 census data

"In this paper, we use data from the 1990 [U.S.] census to compare patterns of Asian American intermarriage with those reported by Lee and Yamanaka (1990).... Our main findings show that: (i) the overall outmarriage rate has declined; (ii) Asian American inter-ethnic marriages (that is, marriages between two Asian Americans of different Asian ethnicities) have increased; and (iii) social distance, measured by an Index of Intermarriage Distance, between Asian Americans and other racial and ethnic groups has widened. We conclude by discussing some implications of the findings for the role of racial and ethnic intermarriage as an indicator of intergroup relations."     

Sibling kinship carers in England: Evidence from the 2001 UK population census

The numbers of children in kinship care in England has been thought to be substantial, but it is only recently that research has begun to illuminate the circumstances and needs of carers and children. This paper describes the findings of an analysis of the 2001 UK Population Census. For the first time, the numbers of children in kinship care were estimated, as was the proportions of children living in formal and informal kinship care. As expected many children were being brought up by grandparents but surprisingly, large numbers of children were living with an older sibling. This group of kinship carers has not been previously identified by researchers or policy makers and their circumstances and needs may differ from grandparent kinship carers.     

Drug use,prostitution and the prevalence of AIDS: An analysis using census tracts

This paper reports on preliminary efforts to study at the census tract level the reciprocal relationships between AIDS and street crime, particularly prostitution and drug offenses and the prevalence of AIDS. The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health provided the number of reported AIDS cases by census tract. The data on reported crimes and arrests, organized by reporting districts, came primarily from the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department and the Los Angeles City Police Department. Although this strategy needs replication and extension, the present findings suggest that sexual orientation, drug use and prostitution are useful risk variables at the census track level.     

Data-based organizational change: the use of administrative data to improve child welfare programs and policy

Administrative databases hold the potential to have a significant impact on the development of effective child welfare programs and policies. This article discusses the strengths and weaknesses of administrative databases, issues with their implementation and data analysis, and effective presentation of their data at different levels in child welfare organizations.