社会安全阀机制与贫富差距调适

当前,我国贫富差距较大已是一客观不争的社会事实。社会安全阀机制则起着调适贫富差距的作用,从而缓解了贫富差距所可能导致的利益和社会冲突,维持和促进了社会的稳定与发展。研究立足于贫富差距较大的客观现实,着重对现有社会安全阀机制进行分析,并指出在健全和完善相应社会安全阀机制的基础上消除较大的贫富差距。     

Retired women and volunteering: the good, the bad, and the unrecognized

In this article, we examine varied attitudes and practices toward volunteering in later life, as shared by a group of 40 retired women. We categorize women based on their engagement in retirement and label the categories according to societal expectations as follows: traditional volunteers as "good," nonvolunteers as "bad," and caregiving volunteers as "unrecognized." Using critical gerontology and a feminist framework, we juxtapose the lived experiences of retired women with a prevailing discourse on successful aging and civic engagement. We advocate for societal recognition of caregiving as a valuable form of volunteering, as well as the need to respect multiple ways in which older women experience and find meaning in later life.     

父母与公婆之间的权衡:农村女性家庭权力与养老资源的分配

本文尝试探讨身具"儿媳—女儿"双重身份的农村已婚女性在家庭养老资源分配过程中,如何在公婆与父母之间进行权衡.通过对山东省莒南县868份问卷调查数据的分析,发现公婆与父母所获得的养老支持存在显著性差异,女性更倾向于将家庭养老资源给予自己父母而非公婆.家庭资源的多寡对女性承担公婆与父母的赡养义务均有很重要的影响作用,且家庭...     

The formal dynamics of controlled populations and the echo,the boom and the bust

This paper analyzes the pattern of fluctuations of births in an age-structured population whose growth is subject to environmental or economic constraint. It synthesizes the traditional demographic analysis of age-structured renewal with constant vital rates and the economic analysis which treats population change endogenously. When cohort fertility depends on relative cohort size, or when period fertility depends on labor force size, fluctuations of forty or more years replace the traditional "echo" or generation-length cycle. Twentieth-century U. S. fertility change agrees well with the theory, as the "Easterlin Hypothesis" suggests; but the period model fits better than the cohort model.     

社会文化变迁对婚姻家庭的影响及趋势

婚姻家庭既是人类文化的积淀,是社会文化的载体,也是传递社会文化的重要组成部分。在人类发展的历史长河中,婚姻家庭与社会文化变迁密切相关,社会文化变迁以各种方式影响着婚姻家庭的建立、形成与发展。以社会文化变迁为视角,通过对社会文化变迁与婚姻家庭的建立、形成与发展之间的互动关系的历史考察,从婚姻家庭形式、婚姻家庭制度、婚姻家庭观念、婚姻家庭习俗、婚姻家庭关系等方面探讨人类社会文化变迁与婚姻家庭变化发展之间的内在关系,揭示人类社会不同历史阶段社会文化变迁及其特点对人类社会婚姻家庭建立、形成与发展的影响,探索社会文化变迁与婚姻家庭变化规律,探寻在当代社会文化交汇、冲突、融合加快趋势下,社会文化变迁与婚姻家庭变化的趋势。     

宁夏保护农民权益构建和谐社会的调查与研究

建设社会主义新农村,是缩小城乡差距、建设全面小康社会的重大举措。农民是中国最大的社会团体,也是最弱势的群体,建设社会主义新农村必须要解决农民权益保护问题。     

Fertility and the economy

I relate the demand for children to parental incomes and the cost of rearing children — especially to the value of the time spent on child care and to public policies that change the cost of children. This paper also links the demand for children to investments in their human capital and other dimensions of the so-called quality of children. Fertility is shown to depend too on child and adult mortality, uncertainty about the sex of children — if there is a preference for boys, girls, or for variety — uncertainty about how long it takes to produce a conception, and other variables.Since biological necessity dictates that succeeding generations overlap, it is not surprising that fertility in one generation influences the fertility of succeeding generations. The overlapping generations approach provides a useful framework for relating fertility choices to population growth and macroeconomic changes.The modern approach to fertility leads to very different interactions between population growth and economic growth than is implied either by Malthusian or the usual neo-classical growth models. In particular, it provides a framework for analyzing how societies escape a Malthusian-like stagnating equilibrium and embark on the journey toward becoming modern economies, where per capita incomes, human capital, and physical capital all continue to grow, fertility declines to rather low levels, and married women participate extensively in the labor force.This essay was prepared for the Nobel Jubilee Symposium, Lund, Sweden, December 5–7, 1991. I have had valuable comments from James Heckman, Robert Willis and my discussants at the symposium: Allesandro Cigno and Richard Easterlin, and useful assistance from Becky Kilburn. I am indebted to the National Institute for Child Health and Human Development award R37-HD22054 and National Science Foundation award SES-90-10748.     

Demography and the environment

Demographers' interest in the environment has generally been enmeshed in broader issues of population growth and economic development. Empirical research by demographers on environmental issues other than natural-resource constraints is limited. In this paper, I briefly review past demographic thinking about population and the environment and suggest reasons for the limited scope of demographic research in this area. Next, I describe more recent demographic research on the environment and suggest several newer areas for demographic research. Finally, I consider the future of research on the environment in the field of demography.     

Malthus and the Philippines

Jose D. Drilon, Jr., president of Food Terminal, Inc., and a former undersecretary of the then Department of Agriculture and Natural Resources in the Philippines, attributes the widening gap between food supply and demand in developing countries to the high rate of population growth and to the inability of poor countries to produce more food. This situation, in which many countries are facing hunger, was predicted by Thomas Robert Malthus as early as the 16th century. The primary concern of Malthus was the problem of making the food supply keep pace with a constantly growing population. The question arises as to how reliable is Malthusian theory. According to Drilon, Malthus was correct in predicting that population would expand at a rate not previously imagined but that the other aspects of Malthusian theory might not hold true due to the intervention of human beings. For example, it is hoped that the imbalance between population growth and food production can be minimized in the future. In the Philippines there is good reason to be concerned about the validity of Malthusian theory. Although the country's growth rate has been reduced from 3.01% in 1970 to 2.6%, it is still quite high. However, the Philippines has actually been producing sufficient food to feed its population. To make the Philippines self-sufficient in rice, the government initiated the Masagana 99 program in May 1973. Technical and material resources from the public and private sectors were provided to aid rice producers. A nationwide information campaign was also launched to familiarize the farmers with the new methods of rice culture. Masagana 99 has been costly but effective. Since the launching of the program, rice production in the Philippines has been increasing at 7% a year. The government is now using the Masagana 99 formula to increase the production of other crops.     

Patriarchy and the Horror of the Monstrous Feminine

This paper compares the gender politics expressed in Ringu and The Ring, paying particular attention to specific and noteworthy distinctions and crucial underlying cultural differences that structure and shape the gender politics articulated in the two films. While highlighting the divergences in the films' narratives and examining how their depictions of female characters reveal the fundamental historical, cultural, social and ideological forces that structure Eastern and Western views of femininity, women, and their roles in society, this paper argues that although both films reflect a misogynist patriarchal perspective in their depiction of evil, violent, destructive females, it is the American remake that is ultimately more conservative and reactionary in its simplistic alignment of women, the feminine and maternity with evil and monstrosity. In comparison, the Japanese original offers a more ambiguous treatment of a key female character, the mysterious and deadly Sadako, allowing her to emerge as a potential figure of resistance against conservative patriarchy, an element that is distinctly absent in the American remake.     

Tempo and the TFR

Tempo effects in period fertility indicators are widely regarded as a source of bias or distortion. But is this always the case? Whether tempo change results in bias depends, in the view advanced here, on the measure used, the meaning of bias/distortion, and the objective of analysis. Two ways of construing bias in period measures are suggested, and their relevance is discussed in the context of five broad purposes for measuring period fertility: describing and explaining fertility time trends, anticipating future prospects, providing input parameters for formal models, and communicating with nonspecialist audiences. Genuine timing effects are not biasing when period fertility is the explanandum but are distorting when the aim is to estimate cohort fertility. Alternatives to tempo adjustment are available that are a more defensible solution to the issue of timing change. Tempo adjustment could be more fruitfully considered a form of modeling rather than empirical measurement. The measurement of period fertility could be improved by relying more on a statistical approach and less on indicators based on stable assumptions. Future progress will depend on integrating research on measurement with substantive investigation.     

Beliefs and values and the sterilization decision

A decision-making framework based on the models of personal decision making developed by psychologists and economists and a methodology based on axiomatic conjoint measurement are used to explore individuals' beliefs and values regarding contraceptive sterilization. Particular emphasis is given to demonstrating a. that there exist individual differences in beliefs and values, b. that there exist differences in beliefs and values between persons who choose sterilization—either tubal ligation or vasectomy—and persons who choose non-sterilization contraceptive methods when no more children are wanted, and c. that the effect of beliefs and values on the sterilization decision is an interactive one. The methodology used is compared to that typically used in studying fertility- and health-related behaviors.This research was supported by grants HD-10802 and HD-14403 from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development. The technical assistance of Doreen Victor and the editorial suggestions of Sarah Gaskill, Alice Healy, and two anonymous reviewers are greatly appreciated. This paper is Publication No. 253 of the Center for Research on Judgment and Policy, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0344. Requests for reprints should be sent to the Publications Librarian at the Center.     

Changing mortality and morbidity rates and the health status and life expectancy of the older population

This paper demonstrates the consequences of changes in mortality and health transition rates for changes in both health status life expectancy and the prevalence of health problems in the older population. A five-state multistate life table for the mid-1980s provides the baseline for estimating the effect of differing mortality and morbidity schedules. Results show that improving mortality alone implies increases in both the years and the proportion of dependent life; improving morbidity alone reduces both the years and the proportion of dependent life. Improving mortality alone leads to a higher prevalence of dependent individuals in the life table population; improving morbidity alone leads to a lower percentage of individuals with problems in functioning.     

Understanding the link between the economy and teenage sexual behavior and fertility outcomes

We use individual-level data from the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth and state unemployment rates to examine how the economy affects fertility and its proximate determinants for several groups based on gender, age (15–17 and 18–20 groups), and race/ethnicity. We find that, for 15- to 17-year-old females, several behaviors leading to pregnancies and pregnancies themselves are higher when the unemployment rate is higher, which is consistent with the counter-cyclical fertility patterns for this group. For 18- to 20-year-old males, the results suggested counter-cyclical patterns of fertility behaviors/outcomes for whites, but pro-cyclical patterns for blacks. This research was funded by grant R03HD47407 from the National Institute on Child and Health Development.     

Obesity and excess mortality among the elderly in the United States and Mexico

Increasing levels of obesity could compromise future gains in life expectancy in low-and high-income countries. Although excess mortality associated with obesity and, more generally, higher levels of body mass index (BMI) have been investigated in the United States, there is little research about the impact of obesity on mortality in Latin American countries, where very the rapid rate of growth of prevalence of obesity and overweight occur jointly with poor socioeconomic conditions. The aim of this article is to assess the magnitude of excess mortality due to obesity and overweight in Mexico and the United States. For this purpose, we take advantage of two comparable data sets: the Health and Retirement Study 2000 and 2004 for the United States, and the Mexican Health and Aging Study 2001 and 2003 for Mexico. We find higher excess mortality risks among obese and overweight individuals aged 60 and older in Mexico than in the United States. Yet, when analyzing excess mortality among different socioeconomic strata, we observe greater gaps by education in the United States than in Mexico. We also find that although the probability of experiencing obesity-related chronic diseases among individuals with high BMI is larger for the U. S. elderly, the relative risk of dying conditional on experiencing these diseases is higher in Mexico.     

长春市人口迁移状况以及人口管理模式转变的思考

20世纪90年代以来,随着我国社会主义市场经济体制逐步建立和完善,市场机制在配置资源方面发挥的作用越来越大。长春市是东北老工业基地,尽管经济发展水平与东部地区有一定差距,但是作为特大城市的经济聚集能力和人口聚集能力仍然很强,人口迁移流动在市场机制的作用下呈加速增长趋势,经济因素是推动人口流动性增加的主要原因。     

Rethinking certification theory and the educational development of the United States and Germany

This essay places work certification at the center of all modern educational regimes. I sketch the growth of the education, training, and certification systems of the United States and Germany in new ways, highlighting the role of their highly divergent certification regimes in shaping them. Whereas Germany's education and training system, anchored in the economy through employers’ associations and unions, accords well with human capital models, American practice, governed primarily by academic interests divorced from the economy, fits much better with credentialist theory. I consider how the absence of meaningful work certification at the secondary level in the US negatively affects educational justice and has encouraged the creation of a costly, inegalitarian system of higher education. Finally, I conclude with an assessment of human capital, signaling, control, and credentialist theories of certification, one that finds them all to some degree wanting.     

Different features and conditions of the fertility transition in the developed countries and the developing countries]

Differences between the demographic transition experienced by developed countries and that currently being experienced by developing countries are first discussed. The author then stresses the need for developing countries to lower fertility in order to foster socioeconomic development, rather than waiting for economic development to bring about reductions in fertility.     

吉林省人口增长与社会经济发展过程中存在的问题及对策研究

人口增长与社会经济发展的关系十分复杂,从人口学角度出发,运用五普及相关资料,对吉林省人口增长和社会经济发展进行分析,可以看到,虽然吉林省人口增长和社会经济发展总的形势比较良好,但依然存在诸如人口基数大、劳动力年龄人口增长快、老年人口增长快、城镇人口增长快等一系列问题,影响了社会经济的发展。     

西北少数民族人才队伍建设的问题、成因与对策

西部大开发,人才是关键。当前,西北地区少数民族人才严重流失,“留得住,用得上”的人才极其稀缺,难以为西北开发及西北少数民族地区经济与社会跨越式发展提供足够的智力支持和保障。加快西北少数民族人才队伍建设,实成为一项刻不容缓的任务。