Presidential Election Cycles and the Turn‐of‐the‐Month Effect*

Objective. In this research, the presidential election cycle hypothesis is evaluated within the context of the turn‐of‐the‐month effect found in stock returns. Methods. Returns from the daily Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index, and the NASDAQ Composite index are grouped into turn‐of‐the month returns and non‐turn‐of‐the‐month returns. Statistical comparisons are conducted to evaluate the returns based on administration subperiod, temporal subperiod, and party affiliation. Results. The results provide evidence of higher turn‐of‐the‐month returns in the second half of presidential terms. The higher turn‐of‐the‐month returns account for most of the additional returns found in the second half of presidential terms evidenced in prior research. Conclusions. The persistent higher investment returns for stocks found in the second half of presidential terms can be linked to fiscal and administrative policies that increase household liquidity prior to elections. Incumbents attempt to influence voter choice and energize core constituencies by increasing household liquidity prior to elections through fiscal and administrative policies. These actions create higher turn‐of the‐month returns in the second half of presidential terms, which generate additional overall investment returns for the period.     

Selective exposure to partisan media: Moderating factors in evaluations of the president

The conditions in which moderating factors – media trust, mediabias, and political ideology – increase or limit the approval ratings of a politician in a partisan media environment were investigated using data obtained from the 2010 Pew survey. The findings show that media trust and media bias intensify negative presidential evaluations among consumers of conservative news programs, whereas these factors do not influence presidential approval among consumers of liberal news programs. The findings also reveal that conservatives tend to choose to be exposed to news messages that are congenial to their ideological orientations, while liberals select a more balanced diet of news messages. This study proposes that moderating factors have different effects on conservative and liberal news consumers.     

Voting by Mail: Turnout and Institutional Reform in Oregon*

Objectives. I test the impact of Oregon's vote‐by‐mail system on voter turnout. Methods. To determine the impact, I create a cross‐sectional time‐series regression model of state turnout in presidential elections from 1980 to 2004 and mid‐term elections from 1982 to 2006. Results. I find that Oregon's turnout increases by around 10 percentage points of registered voters in both presidential and mid‐term elections due to the voting‐by‐mail reform. Conclusions. These results suggest that one of the reasons that the United States has comparatively lower turnout is due to its more onerous voting procedures.     

Linguistic Markers of Psychological State through Media Interviews: John Kerry and John Edwards in 2004, Al Gore in 2000

What can we learn about presidential candidates by examining their speech in natural conversation? In the present study, the television interviews from the 2004 Democratic presidential primary campaign of John Kerry ( N = 29) and John Edwards ( N = 34) were examined using linguistic analyses. Results indicate that Kerry and Edwards were similar in their use of positive emotion words, but that Kerry used significantly higher rates of negative emotion words than did Edwards. Comparisons with televised interviews of Al Gore from the 2000 presidential campaign ( N = 17) revealed striking similarities in the linguistic styles of Gore and Kerry. Gore's linguistic style overlapped considerably with that of Kerry on pronoun usage and many cognitive domains. This study points to how linguistic analyses can give us a clearer picture of how political candidates think, act, and feel.     

Support for torture over time: Interrogating the American public about coercive tactics

In this study, we examine what influences public attitudes toward torture and whether the public's attitude affects or is affected by shifts in presidential policy on torture. We employed ten surveys over five years that looked at approval of torture, as well as two surveys that asked questions about specific methods. We find that public support for torture has risen mildly, but a resilient ambivalence best describes the public's attitude. The public was not affected by the change in government from an administration that strongly supported enhanced interrogation techniques to one that opposed them, and labeled them torture. Public opinion also seemed unaffected by the increased criticism of torture generally. Large majorities oppose most specific methods of interrogation, while at times a majority supports torture in general. We also find support for torture and specific methods is affected most strongly by partisanship and ideology.     

Presidential rhetoric,agency turnover,and the importance of salience to bureaucratic leadership

What explains the quit rates of federal agencies? Can presidential rhetoric affect quit rates of federal agencies, particularly those that implement salient policies? Although much research examines other ways presidents may affect the federal bureaucracy, absent is a systematic examination of presidential leadership of agency quit rates, despite the importance of personnel turnover to effective bureaucratic implementation. I argue that presidential rhetoric on the size of government can affect agency turnover. This impact is only likely for agencies that implement salient policies, because salience encourages bureaucratic responsiveness to elected officials. The findings reveal that presidents who speak more favorably about government reduce aggregate turnover in the Environmental Protection Agency and Department of Education from 1980 through 2005. I conclude with some observations about what these findings mean for presidential control of the bureaucracy.     

Presidential Success in the Realm of Foreign Affairs: Institutional Reform and the Role of House Committees*

Objective This analysis focuses on institutional reform and the House foreign policy committees to assess the resurgent‐Congress explanation of presidential success in international affairs between 1953–1998. Method Logit models are used to determine the changing effects on presidential success resulting from the support of chairmen and the president's co‐partisans on the foreign policy committees due to the 1970s congressional reforms. Results The analysis illustrates differences in the effects of committee leaders and committee co‐partisans on roll‐call success before and after the reforms. Also, contrasts are found in the effects of the foreign policy panels that differentially influence presidential success. Conclusion The article offers evidence that the institutional reforms that changed the House policy process from one dominated by committee chairs to one responsive to political parties significantly altered presidential success. These findings emphasize the importance of the changing congressional environment in explaining presidential success in foreign policy.     

The photosynthetic President: Converting sunshine into popularity

This paper tests the proposition that public opinion can be measurably influenced by sunlight. Specifically, it hypothesizes that sunlight should boost Presidential approval ratings because sunlight generally makes people happy and optimistic. Analysis reveals that, in spring and winter, survey respondents are indeed more likely to indicate approval of the President on sunny days than on cloudy days, even after controlling for demographic, ideological, and geographic predictors of approval. This paper is organized into three sections. The first draws on academic literature from sociology, economics, psychology, psychiatry, and political science to explain how sunlight should affect survey response. Section 2 describes the data employed to test the proposition that sunlight boosts Presidential approval. Results and conclusions are discussed in Section 3.     

Ranking the presidential spouses

Numerous polls have offered rankings of the presidents but little effort has been made to rate the performance of the president's spouse. Not only has there been far less academic attention devoted to the first ladies, but there are difficulties inherent in assessing this “office” that presidential scholars need not worry about when ranking the commanders-in-chief. Yet, the first lady has emerged as a political “institution” worthy of scholarly attention, including an attempt at ranking them. This article provides the results of a poll ranking the first ladies, along with an analysis of the rankings between activist and traditionalist first ladies, first ladies of different historical periods, and between the presidents and their spouses.     

当代俄罗斯强权总统制的合法性及其危机

当代俄罗斯的总统制是社会转型期的一种制度选择。在实践层面,强权总统制具有现实的合法性基础,对当下的复兴与崛起发挥着有效的作用。但从民主宪政的长远发展来看,总统权力的扩张又存在深刻的危机,即特殊历史时期确立起来的以个人魅力为主导的强权总统制只是权宜之计,如何向法律型治理模式过渡是其现代进程中必须面对的问题。随着普京总统任期即将届满,俄罗斯国内种种倾向于让其留任或执掌权柄的说法,更是强权总统制合法性危机的直接体现。     

Following the Rules? Candidate Strategy in Presidential Primaries*

Objectives. The competitiveness of the 2008 presidential primaries in both the Republican and Democratic parties has prompted a reconsideration of the role of delegate‐selection rules in influencing the strategic behavior of presidential candidates. Using advertising and candidate state‐visit data from the 2004 and 2008 presidential nominating campaigns, we reexamine the strategies presidential candidates use when competing for the nomination of their party. Methods. Using the Wisconsin Advertising Project Data from 2004 and 2008, we estimate several multiple regressions designed to analyze the factors predicting candidate visits and advertising. Results. We find that, to a large extent, the rules of the game help predict where candidates allocate their political advertising and campaign stops; candidates consider whether a contest is a primary or caucus, they pay attention to how many delegates are at stake, and they consider whether a state's delegate‐allocation method is largely proportional or winner take all. Yet we also find some differences in how the rules influence frontrunners and long‐shot candidates, and we discover how other factors, including a candidate's access to financial resources, influence the allocation of ads and visits. Conclusion. Our findings offer some of the first empirical evidence for the idea that a state's delegate‐allocation method influences candidates' resource‐allocation behavior. That these rules matter at all is somewhat of a surprise given that the delegate‐allocation methods used by states have become more homogenous within each party.     

Eliminating the U.S. drug lag: Implications for drug safety

An increase in new drugs first launched in the U.S. and shorter lags between first global drug launch and U.S. approval indicate that the U.S. drug lag has declined. This paper examines the impact of these changes on drug safety using adverse drug reaction data for FDA-approved drugs in 1990 to 2004. Results show two different effects. First, drugs having longer U.S. launch lags (more foreign market experience) have fewer post approval drug risks compared to drugs with shorter launch lags. This result implies that foreign market experience prior to U.S. entry provides information to help alleviate drug-related risks for U.S. patients. Second, drugs that are first launched in the U.S. have fewer serious drug reactions compared to those that were first launched abroad. This result is surprising, and may suggest that first U.S. drug launch signals information about unobserved application quality, which translates into lower post approval drug risks.     

The green vote in presidential elections: Past performance and future promise

The electoral impact of the environment issue has been debated for years. Thus far, evidence regarding the issue's electoral impact has concentrated on the 1996 presidential election. Two of the three inquiries into that contest found that the environment had a significant impact on voters’ candidate choices. In an effort to clarify the environment's electoral impact, this research expands the inquiry to include five presidential elections, 1984 through 2000. Findings indicate that the environment had a significant impact in four of these five elections—all but in 2000. The research goes on to examine reasons for variability in the environment's impact, concluding that candidates who play the role of environmental villain/adversary have a surprisingly important role in the issue's electoral strength.     

Presidential voting in the west

Voters in the western United States are becoming more Republican than the rest of the country in their presidential choices. The Solid West has replaced the Solid South as a reality of presidential campaigns. This is in spite of a long term national trend away from strong party loyalties. This article examines the ten states of the Interior West at the county level during the eight presidential elections from 1956 through 1984. All parts of the region did not simultaneously embrace the Republican Party from the onset of the New Western Normal Vote episode. Those areas that lagged were characterized by sizable employment in forestry and mining, large Hispanic or Native American populations, or were among the region's few large urban concentrations. Some of these areas still remain outside the Republican fold in presidential elections. The overall magnitude of change in Republicanism in the 549 counties was not uniform, but rather impacted some areas such as Nevada and Idaho to a much larger degree than others such as Montana and the Dakotas. This article generally confirms Archer and Taylor's assertion that the Western Periphery constitutes a new Republican heartland. But some Indian and Hispanic populations continue to vote for Democratic presidential candidates. Rural areas with strong organized labor such as the mining and forestry areas of Montana, and big cities like Denver are only weakly Republican. Hence, the conversion to strong and unwaivering Republicanism is not total and may never occur.     

Social Competence in Children At Risk Due to Prenatal Cocaine Exposure: Continuity Over Time and Associations with Cognitive and Language Abilities

The continuity of social competence between 36 months and first grade was examined in a sample of children at risk due to prenatal exposure to cocaine (N = 92). Parent report data on social competence were collected at 36 months of age and both parent and teacher report data were collected when children were in first grade. Regression analyses indicated that 36-month social competence significantly predicted first-grade parent ratings of social competence, even after controlling for cognitive ability. Thirty-six month social competence also predicted first-grade teacher ratings of competence, but these relations were mediated by child gender and cognitive ability. Early social competence was also a significant predictor of first-grade language ability, after controlling for 36-month language. These findings emphasize the importance of early social competence for later development.     

Analysis of California propositions: An experiment in the empirical revelation of shared mental models

This paper uses factor analysis to analyze Californians’ voting on 12 propositions considered during the 2008 general election. The result is to create quantitative representations of shared mental models. After generating two county-level shared mental model indices, the indices are further examined to explain their variation across counties and to evaluated their performance as substitutes for previous presidential voting as an independent variable in a presidential voting model.     

论《昇平宝筏》对小说《西游记》的改编

清代宫廷大戏《昇平宝筏》受到小说《西游记》的极大影响,全面继承了《西游记》的整体框架和情节设计,但另一方面《昇平宝筏》对小说局部情节内容、结构层次、人物性格、思想主旨等也进行了改编.其改编策略的形成源于以下四点:戏曲创作实践目的的制约;小说与戏曲叙事上的差异;特殊创作、表演环境的要求;皇帝意志的决定.通过改编,《昇平宝筏》的思想意义更为单纯,表演更加集中,最终成为清代西游戏题材作品中的扛鼎之作.     

Early Social Experience and Individual Differences in Infants' Joint Attention

Fifty‐nine healthy infants were filmed with their mothers and with a researcher at two, four, six and nine months in face‐to‐face play, and in toy‐play at six and nine months. During toy‐play at both ages, two indices of joint attention (JA)—infant bids for attention, and percent of time in shared attention—were assessed, along with other behavioural measures. Global ratings were made at all four ages of infants' and mothers' interactive style. The mothers varied in psychiatric history (e.g., half had experienced postpartum depression) and socioeconomic status, so their interactive styles were diverse. Variation in nine‐month infant JA—with mother and with researcher—was predicted by variation in maternal behaviour and global ratings at six months, but not at two or four months. Concurrent adult behaviour also influenced nine‐month JA, independent of infant ratings. Six‐month maternal behaviours that positively predicted later JA (some of which remained important at nine months) included teaching, conjoint action on a toy, and global sensitivity. Other behaviours (e.g., entertaining) negatively predicted later JA. Findings are discussed in terms of social‐learning and neurobiological accounts of JA emergence.     

Religion and Presidential Politics in Florida: A List Experiment*

Objective. Although national surveys indicate that Americans have become more accepting of the prospect of a Jewish presidential candidate, this could reflect some voters' desire to be seen as having socially correct opinions. The present study uses a survey technique known as the “list experiment” to assess public reaction to the nomination of Jewish candidates for high office. Methods. Two telephone surveys of registered voters in Florida, each employing the list‐experiment methodology, were conducted in October 2000 and May/June 2002. Results. We find only limited evidence of negative affect directed at either the vice presidential candidacy of Joseph Lieberman in 2000 or a hypothetical (unnamed) Jewish presidential candidate who might choose to run in the future. Conclusions. Although there still are enough voters with anti‐Semitic views to affect the outcome of a close election, their numbers do not appear to be as great as some observers have feared.     

The Duchess: First Lady Florence Harding and the tragedy of being ahead of her time

One of the great fallacies of contemporary presidential studies is that the political partnership of the chief executive and his spouse did not exist prior to Franklin and Eleanor Roosevelt. Whereas the Roosevelt partnership evolved throughout the presidency from 1933 to 1945, the balance of power between Warren G. Harding and his wife, Florence, was a known quantity before he was even elected president in 1920 and she is deserving of consideration as the initiator of the modern activist first ladyship; in fact, its widespread publicity may have contributed to his election in the first presidential election to be dictated by the 19th amendment, giving women the right to vote.