Approximation of the Bivariate Renewal Function

Recently, Kambo and his co-researchers (2012) proposed a method of approximation for evaluating the one-dimensional renewal function based on the first three moments. Their method is simple and elegant, which gives exact values for well-known distributions. In this article, we propose an analogous method for the evaluation of bivariate renewal function based on the first two moments of the variables and their joint moment. The proposed method yields exact results for certain widely used bivariate distributions like bivariate exponential distribution, bivariate Weibull distributions, and bivariate Pareto distributions. An illustrative example in the form of a two-dimensional warranty problem is considered and comparisons of our method are made with the results of other models.     

Tests for Cointegration Breakdown Over a Short Time Period

We derive a speculative trading model with endogenous informed trading that yields a conditionally heteroscedastic time series for trading volume and the squared price changes. We use half-hourly price-change and volume data for IBM during 1988 to test the model and estimate the structural parameters using the simulated method-of-moments estimation procedure. Although the model seems to do a reasonable job fitting the unconditional moments of the volume and the squared price change processes, it fares less well in fitting the relation between current trading volume and lags of trading volume and squared volume's (and its lag's) relation to squared price changes.     

Application of Multiple Imputation in Analysis of Data from Clinical Trials with Treatment Related Dropouts

This article develops a functional form of the generalized Poisson regression model that parametrically nests the Poisson and the two well known generalized Poisson regression models (GP-1 and GP-2). The proposed model is applied on the Malaysian motor insurance claim count data.     

An improved comorbidity summary score for measuring disease burden and predicting mortality with applications to two national cohorts

Abstract

Research involving administrative healthcare data to study patient outcomes requires the investigator to account for the patient’s disease burden in order to reduce the potential for biased results. Here we develop a comorbidity summary score based on variable importance measures derived from several statistical and machine learning methods and show it has superior predictive performance to the Elixhauser and Charlson indices when used to predict 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year mortality. We used two large Veterans Administration cohorts to develop and validate the summary score and compared predictive performance using the area under ROC curve (AUC) and the Brier score.     

Assessing Type I error and power of multistate Markov models for panel data—A simulation study

Ordinal outcomes collected at multiple follow-up visits are common in clinical trials. Sometimes, one visit is chosen for the primary analysis and the scale is dichotomized amounting to loss of information. Multistate Markov models describe how a process moves between states over time. Here, simulation studies are performed to investigate the Type I error and power characteristics of multistate Markov models for panel data with limited non-adjacent state transitions. The results suggest that the multistate Markov models preserve the Type I error and adequate power is achieved with modest sample sizes for panel data with limited non-adjacent state transitions.     

An empirical approach to determine a threshold for assessing overdispersion in Poisson and negative binomial models for count data

Overdispersion is a problem encountered in the analysis of count data that can lead to invalid inference if unaddressed. Decision about whether data are overdispersed is often reached by checking whether the ratio of the Pearson chi-square statistic to its degrees of freedom is greater than one; however, there is currently no fixed threshold for declaring the need for statistical intervention. We consider simulated cross-sectional and longitudinal datasets containing varying magnitudes of overdispersion caused by outliers or zero inflation, as well as real datasets, to determine an appropriate threshold value of this statistic which indicates when overdispersion should be addressed.     

Behavior of agreement measures in the presence of zero cells and biased marginal distributions

Kappa and B assess agreement between two observers independently classifying N units into k categories. We study their behavior under zero cells in the contingency table and unbalanced asymmetric marginal distributions. Zero cells arise when a cross-classification is never endorsed by both observers; biased marginal distributions occur when some categories are preferred differently between the observers. Simulations studied the distributions of the unweighted and weighted statistics for k=4, under fixed proportions of diagonal agreement and different patterns off-diagonal, with various sample sizes, and under various zero cell count scenarios. Marginal distributions were first uniform and homogeneous, and then unbalanced asymmetric distributions. Results for unweighted kappa and B statistics were comparable to work of Muñoz and Bangdiwala, even with zero cells. A slight increased variation was observed as the sample size decreased. Weighted statistics did show greater variation as the number of zero cells increased, with weighted kappa increasing substantially more than weighted B. Under biased marginal distributions, weighted kappa with Cicchetti weights were higher than with squared weights. Both statistics for observer agreement behaved well under zero cells. The weighted B was less variable than the weighted kappa under similar circumstances and different weights. In general, B's performance and graphical interpretation make it preferable to kappa under the studied scenarios.     

A New Two‐Bin Policy for Inventory Systems with Differentiated Demand Classes

We consider an inventory system under continuous review with two demand classes that are different in terms of service level required (or penalty cost incurred for backordering of demand). Prior literature has proposed the critical level rationing (CLR) policy under which the demand from the lower priority class is backordered once inventory falls below the critical level. While this reduces the penalty cost for the higher demand class, the fill rate achieved for the lower priority demand class gets compromised. In this study, we propose a new class of two‐bin (2B) policy for the problem. The proposed 2B policy assigns separate bins of inventory for the two demand classes. The demand for each class is fulfilled from its assigned bin. However, when the bin intended for the higher demand class is empty, the demand from the higher class can still be fulfilled with the inventory from the other bin. The advantage of the 2B policy is that better fill rates are achieved, especially for the lower demand class. Computational results show that the proposed policy is able to provide a much higher service level for the lower priority class demand without increasing the total cost too much and without affecting the service level for the higher priority class. When a service level constrained optimization problem is considered, the 2B policy dominates the CLR policy when the service level difference for the two classes is not too high or the service levels required for both the classes are relatively lower.     

Context of Acceptability of Topical Microbicides: Sexual Relationships

Domains central to the effects of sexual relationships on the acceptability of a vaginal protection method were explored in 14 focus groups and 38 in-depth interviews with women and men recruited from a health department's sexually transmitted infections (STI) and family planning clinics. Findings indicate that acceptability depended on a couple's relationship type, classified as serious, casual, or "new." Potential barriers to communication about product use may be overcome through direct or indirect covert use, depending on relationship type. More men than women thought women should always tell their partners if they use microbicides, regardless of relationship type. Results indicate the importance of the relationship context in understanding the likely acceptability of using microbicides, and perhaps any method of STI/HIV protection .