Population constraints on pooled surveys in demographic hazard modeling

In non-experimental research, data on the same population process may be collected simultaneously by more than one instrument. For example, in the present application, two sample surveys and a population birth registration system all collect observations on first births by age and year, while the two surveys additionally collect information on women’s education. To make maximum use of the three data sources, the survey data are pooled and the population data introduced as constraints in a logistic regression equation. Reductions in standard errors about the age and birth-cohort parameters of the regression equation in the order of three-quarters are obtained by introducing the population data as constraints. A halving of the standard errors about the education parameters is achieved by pooling observations from the larger survey dataset with those from the smaller survey. The percentage reduction in the standard errors through imposing population constraints is independent of the total survey sample size.     

Maternal union instability and childhood mortality risk in the Global South, 2010–14

Efforts to improve child survival in lower-income countries typically focus on fundamental factors such as economic resources and infrastructure provision, even though research from post-industrial countries confirms that family instability has important health consequences. We tested the association between maternal union instability and children’s mortality risk in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Asia using children’s actual experience of mortality (discrete-time probit hazard models) as well as their experience of untreated morbidity (probit regression). Children of divorced/separated mothers experience compromised survival chances, but children of mothers who have never been in a union generally do not. Among children of partnered women, those whose mothers have experienced prior union transitions have a higher mortality risk. Targeting children of mothers who have experienced union instability—regardless of current union status—may augment ongoing efforts to reduce childhood mortality, especially in Africa and Latin America where union transitions are common.     

The project coordinator's problem

A project coordinator has a set of activities with known durations and values which are available for scheduling within a given horizon. There may be both precedence and corequisite restrictions (two activities are corequisites if scheduling one implies the other must be scheduled). The project coordinator's problem is to select the activities to be scheduled, and their start times, so as to maximize the net value of the project when there is no penalty for failing to schedule an activity. An efficient solution procedure is developed and illustrated and several generalizations are discussed.     

Men's influence on the onset and progress of fertility decline in Ghana, 1988-98

While lower fertility is commonly associated with women's reproductive autonomy, we demonstrate that the influence of men's education on reproductive decision-making increased during the first decade of rapid fertility decline in Ghana. Husband's education exerts a stronger influence on wife's fertility intentions than does her own education, and the magnitude of the effect of his education increased significantly from 1988 to 1998. Lower fertility in Ghana seems to be associated more with men's declining fertility desires than with women's increasing reproductive autonomy. Nevertheless, there is some indication that women's education may play a relatively greater role in reproductive decision-making as fertility decline progresses still further.     

Early Maternal Depression and Social Skills in Adolescence: A Marginal Structural Modeling Approach

Early maternal depression is a risk factor that may have adverse effects on adolescent social skills. Although evidence indicates links between early maternal depression and social outcomes during early childhood, whether an association extends to adolescence needs further examination. We tested the possible long‐term association between early maternal depression and adolescent social skills using a national secondary dataset. A secondary objective was to test if maternal parenting at the transition to adolescence mediated the association, with the notion that adverse outcomes of early maternal depression could be ameliorated by positive parenting practices at an important developmental transition. Data were obtained from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development. Marginal structural modeling within the context of structural equation modeling revealed a significant association between early maternal depression and adolescent social skills while controlling for maternal depression during pre‐adolescence and adolescence. Maternal parenting skills partially mediated the association between early maternal depression and mother report of adolescent social skills. These findings have important implications for understanding the link between early maternal depression and adolescent social skills, and for informing parenting practices during pre‐adolescence.     

A short term forecasting model for R & D expenditures

Whenever budget requests for individual R & D projects contain a built-in contingency then this will result in inefficient use of scarce resources. At the end of the year the annual budget may have been fully allocated but not necessarily fully utilized. This can result in delays or even complete cancellation of other proposed R & D projects because of an apparent lack of funding.The objective of the study was to forecast monthly R & D expenditures with a better accuracy than available from the subjective estimates of individual project leaders. The method described in this paper proved to be successful in practice.     

Gender Equity,Religion, and Fertility in Europe and North America

Religion has historically been a pronatalist force, but because it fosters traditional gender role attitudes, its importance for fertility may wane where gender equity is thought to be emerging as the new natalism. In this study, I used World Values Survey and European Values Survey data from 1989 to 2018 to determine whether more religious Northern countries are slower to develop the widespread egalitarian gender role attitudes associated with fertility recovery. I concluded that the “old natalism” and the “new natalism” do not compete with each other as much as their negative association implies that they might. By tracing the evolution of country‐level gender equity in more‐ and less religious countries of Europe and North America, I showed how country‐level religiosity does not dampen the potential for a gender equity‐stimulated fertility recovery. This paper also contributes by showing that the curvilinear relationship between gender equity and fertility has continued into more recent time periods than covered by previous work.     

Decision-Making Patterns and Contraceptive Use: Evidence from Uganda

Literature on the effect of decision-making patterns on contraceptive use often does not (1) distinguish between women participating in decisions and controlling them, and (2) account for effects of common decision-making patterns within the community. In Uganda where high fertility persists, both of these factors may be relevant to adoption of contraception. We used data from the 1995/96 Negotiating Reproductive Outcomes (NRO) Study which surveyed 1,750 women in 78 communities located in two districts in Uganda. We assessed the effects of individual and community factors on the adoption of modern contraceptive methods using multilevel logistic regression. We included measures of decision-making patterns at both the individual and community levels that distinguished husband-dominated, joint, and wife-dominated decision-making patterns. Contraceptive use is 29% more likely in communities where women more commonly have unilateral control over household decisions. This strong effect of normative decision-making patterns within the community is net of individual education and community education, both of which had strong and significant effects. Less traditional gender roles as measured by normative decision-making patterns seem to support more innovative fertility behavior. Community decision-making patterns matter importantly for contraceptive use in this low contraceptive prevalence setting and need to be assessed elsewhere. Further, women’s influence is inadequately measured where joint decision-making and wife-dominated decision-making are considered together.     

Does Female Disadvantage Mean Lower Access to Food?

The literature on gender differentials in nutrition demonstrates that the calorie intake of females is generally as adequate as that of males at all ages. Female disadvantage in micronutrient intake is, however, frequent. Pregnant and lactating women are disadvantaged relative to both men and other women. In South Asia there is evidence that boys are advantaged over girls in food intake at some ages, but the evidence for male advantage in access to health care is far stronger. The authors argue that nutrition interventions are best targeted when the incidence of female disadvantage is better understood and, similarly, that interventions to improve women's status should be focused on objectives other than calorie intake in most communities. However, standards for measuring adequacy incorporate norms for female body size and physical activity that may uncritically accept the notion that females are more physically passive. Maintaining adequacy by these standards could perpetuate low levels of female functioning.