Socio-political forecasting and management information systems

This paper is an attempt to place the forecasting of socio-political variables in the context of actual information needs of industrial companies. Initially discussion is of the effect of socio-political variables upon companies with a review of this significance for decision makers and decision takers. An attempt is then made to categorise existing forecasting techniques in the context of socio-political data whilst regard is paid to the possible effects of socio-political variables on companies. Discussion is then broadened to a consideration of current practice both in the UK and in the USA. Problems implicit in current practice are commented upon and the paper ends with the conclusion that socio-political forecasting is currently significant to many companies and that there is a major potential role for management scientists to play in the development and implementation of appropriate techniques.     

Fossil fuel supplies simulation 1972–1979

Fossil fuels are an important source of energy for Ontario Hydro and purchases exceed $100 million per year. This paper describes a computer simulation of the inventory situation over an eight-year period, which is being used to assess the relationship between order flexibility and the target carry-over stocks at the beginning of each shipping season. A simple way of presenting the results for management evaluation is illustrated. Variations of the model are used to assess random influences, such as strikes, and to determine the economic balance between holding costs and stock-outs.     

The application of microcomputers in production management

The findings reported result from a questionnaire survey, and a number of company interviews. Further questions which need to be answered are identified, and a research project to provide these answers is outlined.     

A model of completed length of service

The measurement of labour turnover is important both because high turnover is regarded as a sign that something is wrong in a firm and also because quantitative information is important in planning recruitment programmes. This paper describes a statistical technique which has proved useful for the measurement and prediction of turnover.     

Motivational and nonmotivational determinants of child-number desires

The number of children desired by individuals—often referred to as family size desires or preferences—is a central construct in much research designed to understand and predict fertility. It is often used as a proxy for the construct of childbearing motivation. This paper presents a theoretical framework that organizes and elucidates the relationship between these two constructs. That relationship is examined using a reliable, valid measure of childbearing motivation and data from 195 husbands and 196 wives with no children and 196 husbands and 196 wives with one child. The results indicate that childbearing motivation has a complex relationship with child-number desires, characterized by curvilinearity and a failure to distinguish among those desiring more than two children. We discuss the implications of this pattern.     

Methods for testing subblock patterns

A number of statistical tests have been recommended over the last twenty years for assessing the randomness of long binary strings used in cryptographic algorithms. Several of these tests include methods of examining subblock patterns. These tests are the uniformity test, the universal test and the repetition test. The effectiveness of these tests are compared based on the subblock length, the limitations on data requirements, and on their power in detecting deviations from randomness. Due to the complexity of the test statistics, the power functions are estimated by simulation methods. The results show that for small subblocks the uniformity test is more powerful than the universal test, and that there is some doubt about the parameters of the hypothesised distribution for the universal test statistic. For larger subblocks the results show that the repetition test is the most effective test, since it requires far less data than either of the other two tests and is an efficient test in detecting deviations from randomness in binary strings.     

A model for national planning policies

This paper attempts to develop a multiobjective model to help policy-makers choose the most appropriate mix of economic policies concurrent with the elimination of serious gaps. Each individual policy attempts to achieve a specific goal or a set of subgoals; but it may hinder the achievement of some other subgoals. To differentiate between the importance of different objectives, the analyst assigns different priorities to each of the given set of subgoals. Three sets of results are provided by three separate computer runs of this model. Each set of results corresponds to one of the three priority structures, and each run indicates quite differing underachievements or over-achievements of individual subgoals. A detailed explanation for each of these deviations (gaps) from the targeted subgoals is attempted in an overall framework and some interactions between various gaps (savings gaps, foreign exchange gap, domestic growth gap, GNP gap, etc.) are also identified.     

A framework for modelling fertility motivation in couples

We present a theoretical framework that organizes individual-level fertility motivations into a couple-level model. One feature of this framework is the Traits-Desires-Intentions-Behaviour (TDIB) sequence through which the fertility motivations of individuals produce instrumental behaviours that are designed to promote or prevent childbearing. A second feature of this framework is the cognitive capacity of individuals to perceive a partner's motivational structure. We combine these two features into a dyad-level model that addresses interactions between partners at each step of the motivational sequence. We elaborate this model first with respect to the perception of partner's motivational structure and second with respect to the combination of partner's and own motivational structure. In the process we consider how couple-level processes of communication, influence, and disagreement can be measured and studied through these interactions. We conclude with a summary discussion of the framework and a consideration of the implications it has for a theory of reproductive psychology, population surveys, and family planning services.     

A comparison of applications of microcomputers in production

Earlier research has established that the full potential of microcomputers is not being achieved by production management in small companies. Moreover, questionnaire results and in-company interviews were used to support suggested reasons for this situation. This paper reports further work carried out to examine the issues raised in far more detail. Collaboration took place with nine separate companies over a range of applications. Three of these case studies are presented in detail, and general conclusions drawn relating both to these specific studies and to the total collaboration.