The Emergence of Two Distinct Fertility Regimes in Economically Advanced Countries

Beginning in 2000, in economically advanced countries, a remarkable bifurcation in fertility levels has emerged, with one group in the moderate range of period total fertility rates, about 1.9, and the other at 1.3. The upper branch consists of countries in Northern and Western Europe, Oceania and the United States; the lower branch includes Central, Southern, and Eastern Europe, and East and Southeast Asia. A review of the major theories for low-fertility countries reveals that none of them would have predicted this specific bifurcation. We argue that those countries with fertility levels close to replacement level have institutional arrangements, and related policies, that make it easier, not easy, for women to combine the worker and mother roles. The institutional details are quite different across countries, suggesting that multiple combinations of institutional arrangements and policies can lead to the same country-level fertility outcome. Canada, the only exception to this bifurcation, illustrates the importance of the different institutional structures in Québec compared to the rest of Canada.     

Uncertainty,Doubts, and Delays: Economic Circumstances and Childbearing Expectations Among Emerging Adults

Fertility, or childbearing, expectations have been increasingly identified as an important area of research, at least in part because expectations may help us to understand family issues of concern across the globe such as unintended pregnancies, low fertility, and delayed childbearing. While much research has focused on the link between expectations and behavior, this study extends the literature by asking how those expectations were shaped initially. Specifically, we explore how one’s economic context is related to expectations. This paper further extends the literature by focusing on two dimensions of the parenthood expectations of young people (men and women aged 18–27). Using the 2005, 2007, 2009, and 2011 waves of the Panel Studies of Income Dynamics (PSID) Transition to Adulthood (TA) sample, we considered whether young people expected to have children in the future and, for those who did, when they expected to do so. The results support financial-strain theories of the relationship between (subjective and objective) economic circumstances and childbearing expectations. Women and men with lower earnings, less education, and more worries about their future job prospects are more uncertain whether they will have children. Of those who expect to have children, those with more education and more worries expect to do so later in life. Further analyses reveal that race and gender condition these relationships.     

Explaining religious differentials in family-size preference: Evidence from Nepal in 1996

We examine how religio-ethnic identity, individual religiosity, and family members' religiosity were related to preferred family size in Nepal in 1996. Analyses of survey data from the Chitwan Valley Family Study show that socio-economic characteristics and individual experiences can suppress, as well as largely account for, religio-ethnic differences in fertility preference. These religio-ethnic differentials are associated with variance in particularized theologies or general value orientations (like son preference) across groups. In addition, individual and family religiosity are both positively associated with preferred family size, seemingly because of their association with religious beliefs—beliefs that are likely to shape fertility strategies. These findings suggest the need for improvements in how we conceptualize and measure supra-individual religious influence in a variety of settings and for a range of demographically interesting outcomes.     

Measurement biases in user involvement research

Considerable research has been conducted to demonstrate user involvement's effect on information system success. User involvement and system success typically have been measured by asking users for their perceptions of these variables. This paper reports on a field study conducted to investigate the possibility that this approach to measuring study variables tends to overstate the benefits of user involvement. The link of user involvement to user satisfaction is found to be significantly weaker when user involvement is assessed by systems analysts than when it is self reported. Further, this difference is found to be greater for systems with few users than for systems with many users. The findings suggest that common method variance and self-serving bias may have overstated the apparent benefits of user involvement in past research on information systems. Suggestions for future research are presented.     

Environmental quality and fertility: the effects of plant density,species richness,and plant diversity on fertility limitation

The relationship between the environment and population has been of concern for centuries, and climate change is making this an even more pressing area of study. In poor rural areas, declining environmental conditions may elicit changes in family-related behaviors. This paper explores this relationship in rural Nepal looking specifically at how plant density, species richness, and plant diversity are related to women’s fertility limitation behavior. Taking advantage of a unique data set with detailed micro-level environmental measures and individual fertility behavior, I link geographically weighted measures of flora at one point in time to women’s later contraceptive use as a way to examine this complex relationship. I find a significant, positive relationship between plant density, species richness, and plant diversity and the timing of contraceptive use. Women in poor environmental conditions are less likely to terminate childbearing, or do so later, and therefore more likely to have larger families.     

Natural resource collection and desired family size: a longitudinal test of environment-population theories

Theories relating the changing environment to human fertility predict that declining natural resources may actually increase the demand for children. Unfortunately, most previous empirical studies have been limited to cross-sectional designs that limit our ability to understand links between processes that change over time. We take advantage of longitudinal measurement spanning more than a decade of change in the natural environment, household agricultural behaviors, and individual fertility preferences to reexamine this question. Using fixed effect models, we find that women experiencing increasing time required to collect firewood to heat and cook or fodder to feed animals (the dominant needs for natural resources in this setting) increased their desired family size, even as many other macro-level changes have reduced desired family size. In contrast to previous, cross-sectional studies, we find no evidence of such a relationship for men. Our findings regarding time spent collecting firewood are also new. These results support the “vicious circle” perspective and economic theories of fertility pointing to the value of children for household labor. This feedback from natural resource constraint to increased fertility is an important mechanism for understanding long-term environmental change.     

Schools,Their Spatial Distribution and Characteristics,and Fertility Limitation*

This article investigates the complex relationship between various dimensions of women's educational context and their contraceptive use later in life. Using data from rural Nepal on all the schools that ever existed in one community, I create geographically weighted measures of school characteristics—specifically teacher and student characteristics—that capture exposure to the complete array of schools and investigate the direct relationship between these dimensions of school characteristics and contraceptive use. These analyses provide new information on the broader issue of how social context influences the adoption of innovative behaviors by exploring the wide-reaching effects of school characteristics on individuals. Findings show that the gender of teachers, the gender of other students, and the level of teacher education are all related to women's use of contraception; that increased exposure to these school characteristics throughout the study area, but not necessarily at the closest school, is related to higher rates of contraceptive use; and that school characteristics early in the life course can have long-term consequences for individual behavior.     

The spread of health services and fertility Transition

We use detailed measures of social change over time, increased availability of various health services, and couples' fertility behaviors to document the independent effects of health services on fertility limitation. Our investigation focuses on a setting in rural Nepal that experienced a transition from virtually no use of birth control in 1945 to the widespread use of birth control by 1995 to limit fertility. Changes in the availability of many different dimensions of health services provide the means to evaluate their independent influences on contraceptive use to limit childbearing. Findings show that family planning as well as maternal and child health services have independent effects on the rate of ending childbearing. For example, the provision of child immunization services increases the rate of contraceptive use to limit fertility independently of family planning services. Additionally, new Geographic Information System (GIS)-based measures also allow us to test many alternative models of the spatial distribution of services. These tests reveal that complex, geographically defined measures of all health service providers outperform more simple measures. These results provide new information about the consequences of maternal and child health services and the importance of these services in shaping fertility transitions.