A hybrid ARIMA and support vector machines model in stock price forecasting

Traditionally, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model has been one of the most widely used linear models in time series forecasting. However, the ARIMA model cannot easily capture the nonlinear patterns. Support vector machines (SVMs), a novel neural network technique, have been successfully applied in solving nonlinear regression estimation problems. Therefore, this investigation proposes a hybrid methodology that exploits the unique strength of the ARIMA model and the SVMs model in forecasting stock prices problems. Real data sets of stock prices were used to examine the forecasting accuracy of the proposed model. The results of computational tests are very promising.     

"It's your badge of inclusion": The Red Hat Society as a gendered subculture of aging

Although studies document the health-enhancing effects of social engagement, they reveal little about the underlying mechanisms operating within specific organizational contexts. Limited attention is given to the role of inequality - particularly age and gender - in shaping either the organizations to which we belong or their consequences for our well-being. We address this issue by examining the Red Hat Society, a social organization for middle-aged and older women. Interviews with members (n=52) illustrate how age and gender inequality interact to shape the organization, which can be viewed as a gendered subculture of aging. Drawing on this framework, we discuss four processes through which participation generates benefits for older women involved in age- and gender-segregated organizations: enhancing social networks, countering invisibility, creating positive frames for aging experiences, and promoting youthful identities.     

农村治理模式选择之殇——基于华北X村的个案

改革开放之后,村民自治制度成为农村治理的基本政治制度。在国家自上而下将村民自治制度下沉到农村和农村自下而上去承接村民自治制度的互动过程中,村民自治出现了“惟村庄利益化”的现象。依据不同的视角可以将农村治理划分成不同的治理模式。以农村对国家供给项目资源的承接态度为标准,可以将农村治理化分为积极型、消极型和激进型治理模式。笔者考察了华北平原的X村在15年中经历了积极→消极→激进的治理模式的选择过程。得出以下结论：村民对农村治理模式选择是依据农村治理绩效的帕累托改进的标准,这种选择是一种理性选择,但往往会产生非正义的结果。将激进治理模式放在税费改革的时代背景之下,源自于农村获取治理资源的方式会发生由内部汲取到外部输入的根本转变。同时,地方政府在晋升锦标赛体制和政治维稳高压之下,也默许了激进型农村治理模式的存在。     

我国企业发展电子商务的前景及存在的问题

通过对电子商务带给企业利益的分析，阐明了中国企业发展电子商务的必要性，又从分析电子商务在中国的发展现状入手，进一步论述了中国企业发展电子商务的前景和在法律、网络安全等方面存在的问题。     

我国工业化与信息化协调发展机制研究

通过发展信息产业及推动产业信息化,进而实现产业结构的优化,提高经济运行质量需要具备一定的条件,“以信息化带动工业化,以工业化促进信息化”是工业化与信息化协调发展的核心内容,政府推动力只是信息化与工业化协调发展机制形成的前提,而完善的市场机制和微观主体持续的创新能力则是保证信息化和工业化长期协调发展的基础。     

Impact of Mid-Life Symptoms of Alcoholism on the Health and Wellbeing of Aging Parents of Adults with Disabilities

The study examined the effect of adult children’s disability on parents’ physical health in later life and the extent to which parents’ symptoms of alcoholism in mid-life moderates the link between children’s disability and later life parental health. Analyses are based on data from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study. The analytic sample included parents of children with developmental disabilities (n = 145) or mental health problems (n = 200) and 2,432 parents of unaffected children. The results showed that the negative health consequences in later life of having a child with a developmental disability were greater for those who showed more symptoms of alcoholism in mid-life. However, symptoms of alcoholism in mid-life did not significantly moderate the impact of an adult child’s mental health problems on parents’ later life physical health. The findings suggest a potential area where gerontological social workers could intervene, given the negative impact of symptoms of alcoholism on the health of aging parents of children with a disability who may be significantly more susceptible to the negative health impacts of alcohol compared to their younger counterparts.     

Relationship Level and Customer Response to Service Recovery

Service failure is inevitable. A better understanding of how relationship level (RL) influences a consumer’s response to service failure and recovery is an important topic for academics and practitioners. This study investigates the connections among consumer RL, failure attributions (i.e., stability and controllability), service failure severity, perceived equity (PE), compensation, and consumers’ future behavior in the context of restaurant service and online shopping. Using equity theory, this study explored the importance of consumers’ entire history of shared interactions with service organizations. Specifically, the study empirically tested the different consequences of compensation by manipulating consumer RL. Consumer RL motivates consumers to follow a different attribution process to judge the severity of service failure and determines consumers’ PE. Moreover, consumers’ PE could then influence their future behavioral intentions, especially how they continue the relationship with the service organization. Findings from the two studies indicate that when additional compensation is offered after a service failure, PE increased regardless of consumer RL. The influence of compensation on PE thus varies as a function of RL. Consumers with a low RL are more sensitive to compensation. Furthermore, enhanced equity perception automatically means that corresponding future relationship continuity is also enhanced. The results further demonstrate that controllability attribution influences service failure severity, which has a negative impact on the PE of the exchange and mediates the effectiveness of compensation as a recovery effort.     

甘南藏族部落特点及其现代化转型研究

"部落"这一原始社会的社会组织形式,在一些民族区域可能会长期延存,从形式到内容虽历经变迁,但终究还是部落;甘南藏族的形成和发展与其部落形成和巩固相始终,部落既是"自组织"又是"他组织",部落与国家、血缘与地缘、政权与神权的多重矛盾与统一,为部落的存在提供了有效的制度安排和社会结构;部落的"壳"已被打碎,但长时期形成的部落历史积淀沉重而顽固,当相对容易的社会革命已经完成和技术移植缓慢进行时,我们发现社会改造极其困难,制度移植和制度变迁遭遇到了有形无形的诸多障碍和自觉不自觉的顽强抵抗,如何推进民族社会的转型,促进经济社会健康发展,是一个不能回避的重大问题.     

浅谈现代化背景下的藏传佛教世俗化问题

从目前宗教的发展趋势来看,宗教世俗化已成为各宗教目前所面临的一个不可避免的发展趋势,藏传佛教作为一种宗教文化也不例外。面对当今经济全球化与现代化的复杂形势,藏传佛教要想保护自身传统文化,并且与社会主义社会相适应,就必须做出历史性变革与发展,走世俗化、现代化道路。