Discovering Spatio-Temporal Models of the Spread of West Nile Virus

Emerging infectious diseases are characterized by complex interactions among disease agents, vectors, wildlife, humans, and the environment. Since the appearance of West Nile virus (WNV) in New York City in 1999, it has infected over 8,000 people in the United States, resulting in several hundred deaths in 46 contiguous states. The virus is transmitted by mosquitoes and maintained in various bird reservoir hosts. Its unexpected introduction, high morbidity, and rapid spread have left public health agencies facing severe time constraints in a theory-poor environment, dependent largely on observational data collected by independent survey efforts and much uncertainty. Current knowledge may be expressed as a priori constraints on models learned from data. Accordingly, we applied a Bayesian probabilistic relational approach to generate spatially and temporally linked models from heterogeneous data sources. Using data collected from multiple independent sources in Maryland, we discovered the integrated context in which infected birds are plausible indicators for positive mosquito pools and human cases for 2001 and 2002.     

Asymmetric social protection systems with migration

We study the consequences of the coexistence of different social protection systems on contribution rate levels and migration in a two-country model. Before any migration takes place, the levels of contribution rates are chosen by a representative elected in each country. The migration of each agent depends on her anticipation of other agents’ migrations. We show that the richest agents are attracted to the Bismarckian country. The poorest agents tend to migrate toward one country or the other depending on the Beveridgean country contribution rate. The Beveridgean country can set a higher contribution rate to limit the departures of rich agents.

An empirical analysis of valence in electoral competition

Spatial models of voting have dominated mathematical political theory since the seminal work of Downs. The Downsian model assumes that each elector votes on the basis of his utility function which depends only on the distance between his preferred policy platform and the ones proposed by candidates. A succession of papers introduces valence issues into the model, i.e., candidates’ characteristics which are independent of the platforms they propose. So far, little is known about which of the existing utility functions used in valence models is the most empirically founded. Using a large survey run prior to the 2007 French presidential election, we evaluate and compare several spatial voting models with valence. Existing models perform poorly in fitting the data. However, strong empirical regularities emerge. This leads us to a new model of valence that we call the intensity valence model. This new model makes sense theoretically and is grounded empirically.     

Should countries be more like shopping malls? A proposal for Service Performance Guarantees

Through an examination of existing guarantee mechanisms, this article sets out and explains a proposal for the adoption of Service Performance Guarantees (SPGs) by developing countries working to attract foreign investment. The proposed approach is to offer investing firms the opportunity to purchase insurance against a wider range of risks than is currently possible, with highly visible payouts if service delivery standards fall short of those expected from the programme. The SPG contracts would be covered by a “domestic reserve” funded from premiums paid in by the firms and backed up by a further guarantee issued by a development partner. This approach restructures accountability to create a partnership of donors and recipient governments, accountable to their investor clients.     

Rethinking Vulnerability Analysis and Governance with Emphasis on a Participatory Approach

This article draws on vulnerability analysis as it emerged as a complement to classical risk analysis, and it aims at exploring its ability for nurturing risk and vulnerability governance actions. An analysis of the literature on vulnerability analysis allows us to formulate a three‐fold critique: first, vulnerability analysis has been treated separately in the natural and the technological hazards fields. This separation prevents vulnerability from unleashing the full range of its potential, as it constrains appraisals into artificial categories and thus already closes down the outcomes of the analysis. Second, vulnerability analysis focused on assessment tools that are mainly quantitative, whereas qualitative appraisal is a key to assessing vulnerability in a comprehensive way and to informing policy making. Third, a systematic literature review of case studies reporting on participatory approaches to vulnerability analysis allows us to argue that participation has been important to address the above, but it remains too closed down in its approach and would benefit from embracing a more open, encompassing perspective. Therefore, we suggest rethinking vulnerability analysis as one part of a dynamic process between opening‐up and closing‐down strategies, in order to support a vulnerability governance framework.