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Robin Insley Lucia Mok Tim Swartz 《Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics》2004,46(2):219-232
This paper looks at various issues that are of interest to the sports gambler. First, an expression is obtained for the distribution of the final bankroll using fixed wagers with a specified initial bankroll. Second, fixed percentage wagers are considered where the Kelly method is extended to the case of simultaneous bets placed at various odds; a computational algorithm is presented to obtain the Kelly fractions. Finally, the paper considers the problem of determining whether a gambling system is profitable based on the historical results of bets placed at various odds. 相似文献
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The investigation of alleged child abuse should be multi-professional and coordinated to minimize distress to the child and family. Much attention has focused on the joint interview process, with less prominence being given to the medical component of the initial investigation. No standard practice exists in the United Kingdom regarding the conduct of the medical examination or in the training requirements of the doctors who perform the examination. We present a model of practice which has evolved in Edinburgh and the Lothians, drawing on the combined expertise and experience of paediatricians and police surgeons, which has operated for over 2 years; and propose a formal accreditation process for doctors who wish to specialize in the field of child abuse. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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This paper reports on part of a wider study concerned with the collaborative efforts of an inquirer and six people with an intellectual disability, to develop a grounded theory explaining the processes by which these informants manage the relationships within their personal communities. The study was conducted through a series of in-depth interviews with each informant; a process characterised by information sharing, tentative theory development and elaboration, and informants' checking the accuracy of the emerging theory. This inductive approach allowed not only an insight into the lives of each informant, but recognised the informants' expertise in matters concerning their own lives and thus facilitated the emergence of theoretical elements of relevance to the informants themselves. The focus of the paper is on the collaborative or partnership approach adopted. The outcomes of the research partnership are detailed and implications drawn for the role of research in the lifestyles of people with an intellectual disability. 相似文献
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Mutual help has been often found to be beneficial for people’s well-being in clinical settings. Research in the general population, however, is relatively limited, partly due to the lack of applicable measurement tools. The present study attempted to develop two scales to measure mutual help willingness and criteria and test their psychometric properties among a community sample of Hong Kong people (n = 951). Confirmatory factor analyses suggested that the hypothetical models fitted the data very well. Results also indicated that though the willingness to seek help and to give help was significantly correlated, Hong Kong people were generally more willing to give help than to seek help. Age had a negative effect on help-seeking willingness, which can not be explained by education level. A set of criteria were applied similarly when people decided on help-giving and help-seeking. Agreement with the criteria was negatively correlated with age but the associations became negligible when education level was controlled. Research and practical implications of the findings are discussed. 相似文献
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This questionnaire survey of a representative sample of practitioners in Scotland sought to establish speci?cally how widely guidance on child protection issued by the Scottish Executive Health Department was being followed by practitioners, NHS Trusts and health boards. It aimed to identify the medical practitioners involved and the range of current practice in child sexual abuse examinations throughout Scotland. The results suggest that the medical assessment of children who disclose sexual abuse is a low‐volume, highly specialized activity, practised by about one in ?ve paediatricians and forensic medical examiners in Scotland. Most (79%) are aged between 41 and 60 years; 59.8% have less than 10 years' experience in the ?eld; and the majority (86.3%) perform fewer than two examinations per week. Available guidance is comprehensive and uniform, highlighting the importance of joint specialist working, use of the colposcope for photodocumentation, training and continuing professional development in this specialized area of work. Despite this, the results of our survey of practitioners show that throughout Scotland, the care offered to children and the service provided to the courts are suboptimal. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Why Has Safety Improved at Rail‐Highway Grade Crossings? 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
The number of collisions and fatalities at rail-highway intersections in the United States has declined significantly over the past 30 years, despite considerable increases in the volume of rail and highway traffic. This article disaggregates the improvement into its constituent causes. Negative binomial regressions are conducted on a pooled data set for 49 states from 1975 to 2001. The analysis concludes that about two-fifths of the decrease is due to factors such as reduced drunk driving and improved emergency medical response that have improved safety on all parts of the highway network. The installation of gates and/or flashing lights accounts for about a fifth of the reduction. The development in the 1970s and early 1980s of the Operation Lifesaver public education campaign, and the installation of additional lights on locomotives in the mid 1990s, each led to about a seventh of the reduction. Finally, about a tenth is due to closure of crossings resulting from line abandonments or consolidation of little-used crossings. 相似文献
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This is a pioneering study examining the effect of different types of social support on the mental health of the physically disabled in mainland China. With a random sample of 204 physically disabled people in Guangzhou, the biggest metropolis in southern China, results of this study showed that perceived social support was more effective in maintaining the mental health of the physically disabled than received social support. With respect to received social support, the attitude of the supporters, satisfaction with the support, the reciprocity of support relationships and the personal agency of the support recipients were found to be predictive of mental health. However, received daily-care support unexpectedly showed a significantly negative effect on mental health, while received economic and emotional support appeared to be irrelevant to the mental health of the physically disabled. 相似文献
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Cook (1977) proposed a diagnostic to quantify the impact of deleting an observation on the estimated regression coefficients of a General Linear Univariate Model (GLUM). Simulations of models with Gaussian response and predictors demonstrate that his suggestion of comparing the diagnostic to the median of the F for overall regression captures an erratically varying proportion of the values. We describe the exact distribution of Cook's statistic for a GLUM with Gaussian predictors and response. We also present computational forms, simple approximations, and asymptotic results. A simulation supports the accuracy of the results. The methods allow accurate evaluation of a single value or the maximum value from a regression analysis. The approximations work well for a single value, but less well for the maximum. In contrast, the cut-point suggested by Cook provides widely varying tail probabilities. As with all diagnostics, the data analyst must use scientific judgment in deciding how to treat highlighted observations. 相似文献