Childcare and labor force participation in the Netherlands: the importance of attitudes and opinions

We analyze the joint decision of participating in the labor force and using paid childcare made by mothers in two-parent households with pre-school age children in the Netherlands. Both the choice to use paid childcare and the number of hours taken up are analyzed. The data, collected in 2004, contains information on economic factors and on attitudes and opinions on childcare and labor. While acknowledging potential endogenous selection effects and bidirectional causality implying problems of endogeneity with the attitudes and opinions, our results show that, in addition to economic factors, attitudes and opinions are important when explaining the decision to participate in the labor force and to use paid childcare services, but they are less important when it comes to the decision on the number of hours childcare is taken up.     

Parental migration and disruptions in everyday life: reactions of left-behind children in Southeast Asia

ABSTRACT

Increasing feminisation of transnational labour migration has raised concerns over potential ‘care crises’ at home, and consequently a ‘care deficit’ for children left in origin countries. Our paper focuses on how left-behind children from Indonesia and the Philippines understand, engage and react to changes in their everyday lives in their parents’ absence. While many children had no say over their care arrangements, some were able to assert their agency in influencing their parents’ decisions and eventually migratory behaviours. Their thoughts and actions reinforce the importance of including children’s views in development and migration studies to improve both the children’s and families’ well-being, and make migration a sustainable strategy for all.     

Real-time threat assessment based on hidden Markov models

An essential factor toward ensuring the security of individuals and critical infrastructures is the timely detection of potentially threatening situations. To this end, especially in the law enforcement context, the availability of effective and efficient threat assessment mechanisms for identifying and eventually preventing crime- and terrorism-related threatening situations is of utmost importance. Toward this direction, this work proposes a hidden Markov model-based threat assessment framework for effectively and efficiently assessing threats in specific situations, such as public events. Specifically, a probabilistic approach is adopted to estimate the threat level of a situation at each point in time. The proposed approach also permits the reflection of the dynamic evolution of a threat over time by considering that the estimation of the threat level at a given time is affected by past observations. This estimation of the dynamic evolution of the threat is very useful, since it can support the decisions by security personnel regarding the taking of precautionary measures in case the threat level seems to adopt an upward trajectory, even before it reaches the highest level. In addition, its probabilistic basis allows for taking into account noisy data. The applicability of the proposed framework is showcased in a use case that focuses on the identification of potential threats in public events on the basis of evidence obtained from the automatic visual analysis of the footage of surveillance cameras.     

Gesture in Instruction: Evidence from Live and Video Lessons

Previous studies have shown that teachers’ gestures are beneficial for student learning. In this research, we investigate whether teachers’ gestures have comparable effects in face-to-face live instruction and video-based instruction. We provided sixty-three 7–10 year old students with instruction about mathematical equivalence problems (e.g., 3 + 4 + 5 = __ + 5). Students were assigned to one of four experimental conditions in a 2 × 2 factorial design that varied (1) instruction medium (video vs. live), and (2) instruction modality (speech vs. speech + gesture). There was no main effect of medium: The same amount of learning occurred whether instruction was done live or on video. There was a main effect of modality: Speech instruction accompanied by gesture resulted in significantly more learning and transfer than instruction conveyed through speech only. Gesture’s effect on instruction was stronger for video instruction than live instruction. These findings suggest that there may be a limit to gesture’s role in communication that results in student learning.     

Can Marriage and Relationship Education Be an Effective Policy Tool to Help Low-Income Couples Form and Sustain Healthy Marriages and Relationships? A Review of Lessons Learned

This review summarizes and synthesizes what researchers and practitioners have learned about the potential of public policy support for marriage and relationship education (MRE) to help lower income individuals and couples form and sustain healthy marriages and relationships. In short, this review documents modest, early evidence that low-income couples participate in well-designed MRE programs when they are offered, enjoy the educational experience, and report that the program is helpful. Practitioners have been going through a fast and steep learning process to figure out how best to recruit and maintain participation and adapt curricula to meet unique needs and situations. The evidence from the early outcome studies provides some support for the notion that MRE programs can have positive, modest effects on low-income couples' relationships, at least in the short run. However, much more research is needed to answer this question more definitively. Fortunately, more high-quality evaluation research will be coming over the next few years.     

Comment on “ estimating systems of trending variables”: estimating pushing trends and pulling equilibria

This paper is a comment on Soren Johansen's (1994) paper on estimating systems of trending variables. The pedagogical and diagnostic value of using univariate time series methods is emphasized together with the use of small scale experiments that give insight into the sensitivity of unit root test procedures to misspecification of the deterministic components. The test statistics used in the likelihood approach advocated by Johansen are compared with several other test statistics, in particular, those of Box and Tiao (1977) and Stock and Vatson (1988). We also compare the corresponding methods to estimate pulling equilibria. We present the outcomes of two Zlonte Carlo experiments to illustrate some points.     

Debt,precarity and gender: male and female temporary labour migrants in Singapore

As one of Asia’s key hubs for transient workers, Singapore’s migration regime creates particularly gendered streams of labour, especially among lower skilled occupations, as is apparent in two key sectors – domestic work and construction work. Drawing on surveys with Bangladeshi construction workers and Indonesian domestic workers based in Singapore, as well as in-depth interviews with each group, this paper examines gendered issues of temporary labour migration, precarity and risk, as they occur against a backdrop of migrant indebtedness. In this paper, we argue that migrant indebtedness occurs along a spectrum that ranges from less visible, or what we call ‘silently’ incurred forms of debt, through to more ‘resonant’ types of debt that are acquired upfront and thus more readily quantifiable. Using this spectrum of migrant indebtedness, we aim to complicate debates about debt-financed migration by underscoring the ways in which notions of debt and unfreedom can be imbricated with both constraints and opportunities for migrants’ agency.     

Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Generalized Long-Memory Time Series Models

An exact maximum likelihood method is developed for the estimation of parameters in a non-Gaussian nonlinear density function that depends on a latent Gaussian dynamic process with long-memory properties. Our method relies on the method of importance sampling and on a linear Gaussian approximating model from which the latent process can be simulated. Given the presence of a latent long-memory process, we require a modification of the importance sampling technique. In particular, the long-memory process needs to be approximated by a finite dynamic linear process. Two possible approximations are discussed and are compared with each other. We show that an autoregression obtained from minimizing mean squared prediction errors leads to an effective and feasible method. In our empirical study, we analyze ten daily log-return series from the S&P 500 stock index by univariate and multivariate long-memory stochastic volatility models. We compare the in-sample and out-of-sample performance of a number of models within the class of long-memory stochastic volatility models.     

Racial Imagery and Support for Voter ID Laws

Previous research suggests that calls for voter ID laws include racialized appeals and that racial attitudes influence support for such laws. This study uses an experiment to test whether exposure to racial imagery also affects support for voter ID laws. The data come from a survey experiment embedded in the 2012 Cooperative Congressional Election Study (N = 1,436) randomizing the race of a voter and poll worker shown to respondents (African American voter and poll worker, white voter and poll worker, or no image). The results show that white respondents who saw an image of an African American voter and poll worker expressed greater support for voter ID laws than those in the no image condition, even after controlling for the significant effects of racial resentment and political ideology. Exposure to an image of a white voter and poll worker did not produce a similar effect. The findings provide new evidence that public opinion about voter ID laws is racialized.