ALL-BIAS DESIGNS FOR POLYNOMIAL SPLINE REGRESSION MODELS

Polynomial spline regression models of low degree have proved useful in modeling responses from designed experiments in science and engineering when simple polynomial models are inadequate. Where there is uncertainty in the number and location of the knots, or breakpoints, of the spline, then designs that minimize the systematic errors resulting from model misspecification may be appropriate. This paper gives a method for constructing such all‐bias designs for a single variable spline when the distinct knots in the assumed and true models come from some specified set. A class of designs is defined in terms of the inter‐knot intervals and sufficient conditions are obtained for a design within this class to be all‐bias under linear, quadratic and cubic spline models. An example of the construction of all‐bias designs is given.     

Socioeconomic,sociodemographic and attitudinal correlates of the tempo of divorce

The association between sociodemographic, demographic, and attitudinal measures and the timing or tempo of marital dissolution over a 14-year time span is examined. Separation is considered equivalent to divorce. Early and late divorce are differentiated by whether the event occurred before or after the average number of years married prior to divorce. Data were obtained on husbands and wives within childbearing years (up to 39 years) in the 1st years of the 1st marriage. A random stratified sample of 610 couples was drawn from records of marriages in a midwestern county between 1972-77. Reinterviews were conducted on 544 couples in April 1985. socioeconomic variables included educational attainment, occupational prestige, wife's employment status, wife's future work plans, husband's attitude to wife's future work plans, total family income, and level of satisfaction with current financial status. Demographic variables are age at marriage, number of children in 1985, marital duration, and desired family size. Attitudinal items were religiosity and gender role orientations (traditionalism, modernism, egalitarianism). Exposure to divorce was not equitably distributed for the 108 who divorced, but this was not statistically significant. The results indicate that those divorced earlier were wives who worked outside the home, worked at more prestigious jobs, planned to be employed throughout married life, and whose father had a higher level of educational attainment. This finding is not consistent with prior research which has shown that favorable socioeconomic conditions lower the probability of divorce. The timing of divorce was affected by the presence of children. Those married at younger ages divorced earlier and couples with children delayed divorcing longer than couples without children. These findings were consistent with earlier research. Catholic wives delayed divorce longer than non-Catholic wives. Males lower in sexual satisfaction divorced earlier. Divorce was postponed longer for husbands with traditional values and wives who had higher scores on egalitarianism. Wives with scores on modernism had earlier divorces than wives scoring lower on modernism. The tempo of divorce was in multiple classification analysis predicted best by wife's employment status and number of children. Cross-classification was not possible.     

Relations in frozen places: Observations on winter public order

The effects of prolonged winter weather on public order have been overlooked in sociological research literature. A naturalistic observational study conducted over a two year period using team field research methods documents several phenomena characteristic of winter public order. First, there were exaggerated body glosses or officious displays, second, decreased numbers of people, third, displays of a festive attitude, and fourth, an attitude of adventure and exploration. These observations allow a generalization that winter public behavior differs from that described by Goffman in that conditions provide greater freedom to the individual in the uses to which urban territory can be put. This democratization of urban space is explained in terms of Homan's model of group processes which suggests that public norms will be suspended with decreased activity and interaction.

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