A Forecast Model for Unemployment by Education

ABSTRACT We present a dynamic forecast model for the labour market: demand for labour by education and the distribution of labour by education among industries are determined endogenously with overall demand by industry given exogenously. The model is derived from a simple behavioural equation based on a strong relationship between the “strength” in the struggle for jobs of an educational group, and the change in relative supply. This relationship proves to be significant in the data. Furthermore, when used to forecast employment by education on real data, the model predicts reasonably well even for educational groups, where the initial forecast year is a change point for unemployment.     

Does education influence wildlife friendly landscaping preferences?

In sprawling metropolitan areas, residential landscaping is a major concern with respect to biodiversity conservation, and it could play a critical role in conserving wildlife habitat. In the United States, residential landscaping typically consists of maintained lawns with specimen plantings of non-native trees and shrubs; such designs provide poor habitat for urban wildlife species. We conducted a case study of Raleigh, North Carolina residents to determine how providing information about the benefits of native plant landscaping to bird species influenced urban residents’ landscaping preferences. We used Wilcoxon Signed Rank tests to determine if respondent preferences for 0, 50, 75 and 100 % native plant landscaping coverages changed after residents were informed about the benefits that native plants provide for birds. Initially, the 50 % native landscaping coverage was most preferred by residents; however, preferences for all four native plant landscaping coverage designs were significantly different after the informational treatment. Neutrality changed to opposition for the 0 % native plant coverage, while opposition changed to support and neutrality for the 75 and 100 % native plant coverage designs, respectively. After the informational treatment, the 50 and 75 % native plant landscaping coverage had the highest mean preference levels, although the 100 % design was ranked first more than any other design. Our findings suggest that residential support for native plant landscaping is higher than is reflected by typical residential landscaping practices, and that dissemination of information regarding the benefits of native plant landscaping to birds could alter public preferences for native plant landscaping.     

Praxisbericht: Digitalisierung im Talentmanagement

This article of the magazine Gruppe, Interaktion, Organisation (GIO) covers the role of talent management regarding the digitisation of enterprises. Talent Management contributes to this process by identifying, developing and placing talent for the digitisation of enterprises. Deutsche Bahn utilizes a variety of approaches to digitize talent management.     

The impact of US tariffs against China on US imports: Evidence for trade diversion?

We provide evidence on the existence of short-run trade diversion effects towards third countries as a consequence of tariff shocks. We exploit sudden policy changes in the context of the trade dispute between the United States and China in 2018. Based on a data set covering monthly product-level information on US imports from 30 countries for the period 2016 until May 2019, we employ a difference-in-differences estimation framework. Doing so, we can show a strong negative direct effect of US tariffs on US imports from China, but do not find evidence for significant short-run trade diversion effects towards third countries.     

Long-term dynamics of household size and their environmental implications

Little is known about the environmental implications of long-term historical trends in household size. This paper presents the first historical assessment of global shifts in average household size based on a variety of datasets covering the period 1600–2000. Findings reveal that developed nations reached a threshold in 1893 when average household size began to drop rapidly from approximately 5.0 to 2.5. A similar threshold was reached in developing nations in 1987. With the notable exceptions of Ireland, and England and Wales in the early 1800s, and India and the Seychelles in the late 1900s, the number of households grew faster than population size in every country and every time period. These findings suggest accommodating housing may continue to pose one of the greatest environmental challenges of the twenty-first century because the impacts of increased housing present a threat to sustainability even when population growth slows. Future research addressing environmental impacts of declining household size could use an adapted IPAT model, I = PHoG: where environmental impact (I) = population × personal goods (P) + households × household goods (HoG).     

Shrinkage Structure of Partial Least Squares

Partial least squares regression (PLS) is one method to estimate parameters in a linear model when predictor variables are nearly collinear. One way to characterize PLS is in terms of the scaling (shrinkage or expansion) along each eigenvector of the predictor correlation matrix. This characterization is useful in providing a link between PLS and other shrinkage estimators, such as principal components regression (PCR) and ridge regression (RR), thus facilitating a direct comparison of PLS with these methods. This paper gives a detailed analysis of the shrinkage structure of PLS, and several new results are presented regarding the nature and extent of shrinkage.     

Coaching bei Burnout-Gef?hrdung: Nicht noch mehr Stress!

Based on the subject ??burnout??, conditions and approaches for successful individual executive coaching are addressed. Burnout phenomena are assigned to the more global field of work-related stress management. First, diagnostic criteria for adequate application of individual coaching are defined ?C as opposed to psychotherapeutic treatment of stress or burnout problems. Moreover, with regard to executives already suffering from strong emotional stress, it is demonstrated that especially in the initial stage the focus should be rather on client-centered and solution focused approaches than on traditional concepts of stress management with strong goal and action orientation.     

The Copula Information Criteria

We derive two types of Akaike information criterion (AIC)‐like model‐selection formulae for the semiparametric pseudo‐maximum likelihood procedure. We first adapt the arguments leading to the original AIC formula, related to empirical estimation of a certain Kullback–Leibler information distance. This gives a significantly different formula compared with the AIC, which we name the copula information criterion. However, we show that such a model‐selection procedure cannot exist for copula models with densities that grow very fast near the edge of the unit cube. This problem affects most popular copula models. We then derive what we call the cross‐validation copula information criterion, which exists under weak conditions and is a first‐order approximation to exact cross validation. This formula is very similar to the standard AIC formula but has slightly different motivation. A brief illustration with real data is given.