Multiple event times in the presence of informative censoring: modeling and analysis by copulas

Motivated by a breast cancer research program, this paper is concerned with the joint survivor function of multiple event times when their observations are subject to informative censoring caused by a terminating event. We formulate the correlation of the multiple event times together with the time to the terminating event by an Archimedean copula to account for the informative censoring. Adapting the widely used two-stage procedure under a copula model, we propose an easy-to-implement pseudo-likelihood based procedure for estimating the model parameters. The approach yields a new estimator for the marginal distribution of a single event time with semicompeting-risks data. We conduct both asymptotics and simulation studies to examine the proposed approach in consistency, efficiency, and robustness. Data from the breast cancer program are employed to illustrate this research.

     

优选方案定量评价模型研究

在确定评价指标体系的基础上，如何对若干事物或方案进行选优是一个十分有意义的问题．作者利用模糊多目标决策对此进行研究，并通过实例说明该方法的有效性与实用性．     

试论高校制定学科建设发展规划的指导思想

高校应坚持以人为本,树立全面、协调、可持续的发展观,重新认识学科建设的作用,科学地构建适合学校自身特色的学科建设发展规划,在制定学科建设发展规划时需要处理好学科带头人与梯队、近期目标与长远目标、重点学科与基础学科、本科教育与研究生教育等几方面关系。     

论俄语法学术语内涵表现问题

本文通过实例描述《大俄汉词典》法学术语译名在内涵表现方面存在的两个突出问题 (即缩小、扩大了内涵 ) ,提出的基本论点是 :源语内涵宽 ,译名不能将其缩小 ;源语内涵狭 ,译名不能将其扩大。作者对相关的术语提出了修正译名 ,期望引起俄语界、出版界的关注     

工科特困生心理素质的调查分析

采用卡特尔 16PF(8种人格因素分析 )量表及问卷调查 ,对工科特困生的心理素质的具体表现进行调查分析 ,并对其形成原因作出探讨 ,同时提出教育和管理方面的对策     

基于信任的供应链治理机制研究

针对供应链的治理难题,提出信任具有决策、协调、约束和简化等功能,信任机制是非垂直管理体系特别是供应链的理想治理工具,由此建构了多层次的供应链信任治理结构体系。     

论公法与私法划分理论的历史发展

公法与私法划分理论是西方法律文化的重要成果,影响了人类从古至今的历史.其由古罗马法学家创立,中世纪一度沉寂至罗马法复兴得以延续,近代在大陆法系国家的理论与实践中获得充分发展.20世纪后出现"私法公法化"和"公法私法化"趋向,传统公法与私法划分理论发生动摇.     

Risk,trust and knowledge networks in farmers’ learning

This study reports on New Zealand dairy farmers’ access to and use of information as mediated through conditions of risk and trust within the context of their interpersonal social networks. We located participants’ reports of their information use within their perceived environments of trust and risk, following Giddens's [1990. The consequences of modernity. Polity Press, Stanford, CA] typology of trust and risk in pre-modernity and modernity. The research participants were constant users of interpersonal and print information from numerous sources, and monitored their incoming data in the light of strategic needs, reflecting their roles as both farming practitioners and business owners. Socio-spatial knowledge networks (SSKNs) combine individuals’ explanatory cognitive models of information acquisition and use with a micro-geographical analysis of their interpersonal networks. The participants showed characteristics of pre-modern, modern and even post-modern society in respect of their use of complex interactional forms, as well as a blending of individualistic and communitarian practices and concerns in their professional and personal lives.     

A case study of the labour market status of recent mainland Chinese immigrants,metropolitan Toronto

"This article focuses on an analysis of the labour market status of recent MCIs [mainland Chinese immigrants to Canada], taking into account such factors as gender, educational attainment, language proficiency and period of arrival (or length of residence in Canada), and uses Metropolitan Toronto as a case study. The effect of each factor on MCIs' labour market status will be analysed separately, followed by two logit models examining the simultaneous effects of the factors and their relative importance." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

On changes in the age composition of the population and policy options for population planning

This analysis, based on 1978 data from official household registers, suggests that the 1983-2000 period will be critical for China's efforts to control population growth. If declines in the fertility rate are maintained, the possibility of stabilizing China's population at 800-900 million in the next century is feasible. If the population is to be kept under 1.2 billion by the year 2000, the general fertility rate must be lowered to 1.8 in 1985 and must decline 0.1 each 5 years thereafter until it reaches 1.5 in the year 2000. Once population growth is brought under control, it will be necessary to address consequent increases in the median age of the population. Those over 65 years of age will comprise 7.1-7.8% of the population in the year 2000, depending on whether fertility rates are low or high. The medium projection includes a population of 1.211 billion in the year 2000, approaching the peak value but allowing the fertility rate to rise slowly to guard against excessive aging of the population. The proportion of those over 65 years of age reaches a peak value of 20.2% in the year 2040. Overall, these projections suggest a "golden age" continuing until about 2020 in which the proportion of those both over 65 years and under 15 years will be rather low. The dependency ratio should begin to climb after 2020, reaching a peak in 2040 and stabilizing by 2070 at a level slightly higher than that existing today in developed countries. Since a rational age composition and a suitable decrease in the proportion of dependents are essential for economic growth, future analyses should focus on the quality of the population and not just population size. As long as birth rates continue to fall, the proportion of the dependent population will also fall and have a beneficial effect on China's economic development.