Understanding Cumulative Risk Perception from Judgments and Choices: An Application to Flood Risks

Catastrophic events, such as floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, and tsunamis, are rare, yet the cumulative risk of each event occurring at least once over an extended time period can be substantial. In this work, we assess the perception of cumulative flood risks, how those perceptions affect the choice of insurance, and whether perceptions and choices are influenced by cumulative risk information. We find that participants' cumulative risk judgments are well represented by a bimodal distribution, with a group that severely underestimates the risk and a group that moderately overestimates it. Individuals who underestimate cumulative risks make more risk‐seeking choices compared to those who overestimate cumulative risks. Providing explicit cumulative risk information for relevant time periods, as opposed to annual probabilities, is an inexpensive and effective way to improve both the perception of cumulative risk and the choices people make to protect against that risk.     

云南方志的价值及其开发利用

本文简要介绍了云南最重要的几种方志,对云南方志的五个特征:地方性、广泛性、资料性、真实性与民族性进行了论述,分析了云南志的价值,并讨论了开发利用情况。     

LLSM在群体判断中的推广和应用

首先分析了对数最小二乘排序法的特点,说明它是一种值得重视的好方法;并进一步阐述了这一方法的基本原理,着重地对群体判断下求加权的综合排序向量的方法进行了严密的数学推导;提出了在加权的综合排序中权重系数确定的新見解,并举例子以解释。     

Children's gender- and age-based categorization in similarity and induction tasks

The present studies examined children's and adults' preferences for gender- or age-based categorization using similarity and inductive inference tasks. Four-year-olds, 6-year-olds, and adults looked at pictures of people and decided which of two was more like a target (similarity condition) or which shared a novel age- or gender-related property with the target (inference condition). Age or gender-based matches were possible. The results are consistent with previous findings that gender-based classification decreases with age. However, they also demonstrate that children use gender more for judging similarity than for making inferences about novel properties. Distinct patterns emerge from the two tasks: 6-year-olds and adults in both conditions categorize more by age than gender; 4-year-olds categorize by gender more than age in the similarity task, but by age more in the induction task. Only adults differentiated by property in the inference condition. These findings suggest that the salience of gender categories cannot entirely be attributed to their inductive potential. Gender has a salience beyond what would be predicted by its power for directing novel generalizations.     

西部青年对西部大开发的社会判断研究

本研究采用自编问卷就西部青年对西部大开发的社会判断情况进行了调查。结果表明:(1)大部分西部青年对西部大开发的社会判断呈一定的消极趋向;(2)西部青年对西部大开发的社会判断在农业与农民问题、民族交往问题、进城民工的权益保障问题上存在显著的地域差异,在工人下岗问题、腐败与经济犯罪问题上存在显著的职业差异,在环境问题上存在显著的文化程度差异。     

古代文集编辑探源

别集、总集均属于古代集。它们的编辑，尤其是别集的编辑有一个演进的过程：先秦时期章多以单篇流传；两汉之际，史家录作品由依类分别记录，到逐类记录；东汉末至建安时，别集雏形已形成。魏晋以降，出现以姓氏标明为集的《诸葛氏集》。最早的总集是晋挚虞的《章流别集》，而不是刘向所编的《楚辞》。     

审视毛泽东思维

毛泽东一生丰功伟业 ,精神遗产无比宏富 ,而其科学思维则如奇葩一朵 ,光芒四射 ,全面贯穿于毛泽东思想的各个领域。毛泽东科学思维可以概括为“三大核心内容、十大特点、三块基石”。“三大核心内容”即 :民族独立和解放 ;社会主义制度的建立 ;社会主义道路的探索。“十大特点”即破旧立新 ,富于创造 ;求真务实 ,实事求是 ;把握关键 ;提纲契领 ;人民本体 ,服务群众 ;思想占领 ,攻心至上 ;形象生动 ,形式丰富 ;思维开放 ,系统把握 ;逆向思维 ,出其不意 ;辩证统一 ,一分为二 ;超前开拓 ,高瞻远瞩。“三块基石”即 :革命与战争的时代主题 ;中国传统文化的熏陶 ;丰硕的哲学底蕴。     

对Word、Excel自动阅卷方法的探讨与实现

介绍了对Word、Excel操作考题实现自动阅卷的设计思想、实现方案及关键技术，并给出了部分源程序。     

《中华人民共和国会计法》英译文简评

评述了我国会计法英译文中突出存在的词汇和句法两个方面的主要错误 ,指出在翻译中国法律文件时要做到的一点是遵循一定的法律文件英译规律 ,如突出法律行为的主体、不滥用被动句、遵守原文的句型等 ,并且要吃透原文而加以忠实翻译 ,呼吁提高国家级的法律文件英译文的质量 ,尽快开展省级涉外法规的英译及其规范化工作     

传统山水画的法度与审美

传统山水画是祖国传统艺术发展的一座历史丰碑 ,它是中华民族给人类创造的一笔宝贵的艺术财富。它之所以如此的辉煌 ,是与古人对山水画自然美的认识及其理论是分不开的。通过对传统山水画的构图、布局以及透视基本规律的综合分析 ,对传统山水画的理论法度、画法技巧与审美进行了初步探讨。