World population trends in 1960-70

The rapid rise in world population for the 4 periods 1950-1955, 1955 -1960, 1960-1965, and 1965-1970 is mainly due to a decline in the crude death rate from 24/1000 in 1950-1955 to 16.1/1000 in 1965-1970. 1950 was a turning-point in mortality rates because for the first time public health measures became widely available in less developed regions. These less developed regions contained 63.4% of the world population in 1930, 65.5% in 1950, and 70.0% in 1970. World population increased by 22% in 1960-1970, compared to 20% in 1950-1960, which was twice as much as the 20% registered for the 20 years 1930-1950. Developed regions contributed a 14% increase between 1950-1960 and 12% between 1960-1970; in less developed regions the increases were 23% and 27% respectively. Demographic conferences have begun to neglect mortality, but this is still a vital part of total population growth. Evidence is that the mortality decline in less developed countries is beginning to level off so that previous population projections may not be reached. What decline has been seen in crude birth rates in less developed countries is largely attributable to declines in East Asia, notably in the People's Republic of China, Republic of Korea, and other Chinese or Chinese culture-related populations, as well as some of the smaller Latin American countries and some small islands off Africa. Such demographic giants as India, Indonesia, Pakistan, and sub-Saharan Africa have shown little change. In areas with high fertility there are more mothers under age 20 and more births to women over age 35 while in low-fertility areas births are concentrated in the 20-35 year groups. An interesting example is Japan which has 50% of its births to mothers 25-29 years of age. Less developed countries have a larger proportion o f the population under age 14 while developed countries which have had lower fertility for a number of years have larger numbers in the older age groups. In less developed areas the greatest burdens are associated with child-rearing while welfare for the aged is the great concern in the more developed areas of the world. The great trend toward urbanization in all parts of the world means that the population problems commanding greatest attention are those associated with large and fast-growing cities.     

Success through culture change in a Japanese brewery

The birth, growth and subsequent decline of Asahi Brewery is described up to the appointment of a new president of the company and the introduction of a new management concept. This brought a change in strategic direction and the development of new products. Changes in corporate culture at the top and middle level of management encouraged change in employee culture. Improvements of organizational structure and programmes are described and principles for change in corporate culture are extrapolated.     

Long range planning— Japan-USA— A comparative study

This article reports on a comparative study carried out in the U.S.A. and Japan. He concludes that in the U.S.A. long range planning is used to integrate the strategies of divisions and to control the divisions. The planning process is usually bottom-up rather than top-down.In Japan, long range planning is used for improving strategic decisions of top management, so the planning process is a centralized interactive process.Project emphasis rather than quantitative planning is a common characteristic in both the U.S.A. and Japan. However American corporations are more advanced in this respect. Many Japanese corporations suggest that project emphasis is the key success factor for planning.To cope with uncertainty, American corporations tend to update their plans every year or even at shorter intervals, while adopting contingency plans.To the same end, Japanese corporations are using two time horizon plans which are composed of a long range strategy and a medium range plan.With respect to follow-up and implementation, American corporations follow-up more closely and long range planning is used for the evaluation of managers of divisions. The quality of plan and accomplishment are reflected to the economic rewards.Japanese corporations are less inclined to follow up the long range plan itself, but it is considered as important to implement it through the budget and also through the project plan. Project teams are quite frequently used.     

Consistent Bayesian information criterion based on a mixture prior for possibly high-dimensional multivariate linear regression models

In the problem of selecting variables in a multivariate linear regression model, we derive new Bayesian information criteria based on a prior mixing a smooth distribution and a delta distribution. Each of them can be interpreted as a fusion of the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Inheriting their asymptotic properties, our information criteria are consistent in variable selection in both the large-sample and the high-dimensional asymptotic frameworks. In numerical simulations, variable selection methods based on our information criteria choose the true set of variables with high probability in most cases.     

The Impact of Ovarian Cancer on Life Expectancy in Japan

The purpose of this study was to determine how life expectancy is modified by ovarian cancer from 1950-2000. The contributions of ovarian cancer to life expectancy were estimated. The age characteristics of ovarian cancer were detected using the Gompertz relational mortality model. The patterns between years of potential life lost (YPLL) and mortality were obtained by fitting a linear regression equation to the natural logarithm of their ratios. YPLLs are substantially higher in Ireland than in Japan. However, the rates of change were much higher in Japan than in Ireland. YPLLs changed from 0.02 year in 1950 to 0.12 year in 2000. In Japan, there was a sixfold increase in the proportion of YPLLs for death from ovarian cancer relative to those for death from gynaecological cancers during the last half century. The impact of ovarian cancer on life expectancy clearly increased and the age-specific mortality tend to ageing.     

Japanese management philosophy: Can it be exported?

Japanese organizations have three prime characteristics. They are innovative firstly. They are growth oriented and they are sensitive to new opportunity. They are flexible organizations. Jobs are ambiguous and employees are willing to do any related jobs. They are also community organizations and the company will take care of the employees for their life-time. The organizations provide more opportunity for promotion and wage increase with small differentials. These features began to take clear shape after the war. Some of them have their roots in Japanese culture but many are the results of rational judgement, and many were transferred from the U.S. and other countries. It is therefore a misconception to think that these features are too indigenous to Japan to be transferred to other countries.     

Long range planning of U.K. and Japanese corporations—A comparative study

The author conducted mail surveys on long-range planning systems in Japanese and British corporations. He also made a number of visits to corporations in both countries to analyse the similarities and differences in the planning systems.In the U.K., the clarification of goals and the resource allocation are emphasized but in Japan clarification of goals and basic problem finding are stressed.The strategic projects are not necessarily formulated in the long-range planning process. The relationship between the project and the long-range planning was analysed and in both countries, the trend of long-range planning is towards more strategy orientation than quantitative computation.The planning process in Japan is more centralized. The management committee plays an important role in reviewing and making the final decision. In the U.K., the plan initiation is more decentralized, and in the final decision the board of directors plays a more important role. The trends are, however, from bottom up approach to top down approach.Goals expressed in the long-range plan of the U.K. corporations put more emphasis on financial goals, but that of the Japanese corporations emphasizes growth and employee welfare.Regarding the style of strategic decision-making the subjective responses show that it is partly analytical and partly intuitive. There are some differences between two countries, but this problem needs to be analysed further.To cope with uncertainty, multiple scenarios and contingency plans are more frequently used in the U.K., whereas in Japan the sequential decision is more commonly used. British corporations are better prepared for uncertainty than Japanese corporations.The key success factors of long-range planning are similar in both countries. The involvement of top management and cooperation of line management are two important items. Differences are that in the U.K. the planning system is emphasized in addition to the other factors, but in Japan clear goals are more emphasized.