Why still marry? The role of feelings in the persistence of marriage as an institution1

Despite cohabitation becoming increasingly equivalent to marriage in some of the most ‘advanced’ Western European societies, the vast majority of people still marry. Why so? Existing theories, mostly based on various approaches tied to cognitive decision‐making, do not provide a sufficient explanation of the persistence of marriage. In this article, we argue that feelings attached to marriage, i.e. the affective evaluation of those involved in a partner relationship concerning marriage as opposed to cohabitation, explain the persistent importance of marriage as an institution. We argue that socialization, biological and social‐structural factors affect these affective evaluations. We provide a test of our hypotheses using a longitudinal study of young adults in the Netherlands. The results of our analyses are consistent with a central role of feelings in the decision to marry, as well as with a role for key moderating factors such as gender.     

Timing Preferences for Women’s Family‐Life Transitions: Intergenerational Transmission Among Migrants and Dutch

This study examines the transmission of preferences regarding the timing of family‐life transitions of women among migrant and native Dutch families. We study how and to what extent parental preferences, migrant origin, and family characteristics affect the child’s timing preferences. We use parent and child data (N= 1,290) from the Netherlands Kinship Panel Study (2002, 2003) and the Social Position and Provisions Ethnic Minorities Survey (2002). Regression analyses reveal that parental timing preferences regarding family‐life transitions are strongly associated with the timing preferences of their children. Analyses also show that these preferences strongly vary by migrant origin, educational level, and religious involvement. The process of intergenerational transmission, however, is found to be very similar among migrants and Dutch.     

Unmarried cohabitation and union stability: Testing the role of diffusion using data from 16 European countries

Cohabitors and married people who cohabited before marriage have higher risks of union dissolution than people who married without prior cohabitation. However, these differences in union stability vary markedly between countries. We hypothesize that the impact of cohabitation on union stability depends on how far cohabitation has diffused within a society. We test this hypothesis with data from 16 European countries. The results support our hypothesis: former cohabitors run a higher risk of union dissolution than people who married without prior cohabitation only in societies in which cohabitation is a small minority or a large majority phenomenon.     

COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE AND THE CROSS‐SECTION OF BUSINESS CYCLES

Business cycles are both less volatile and more synchronized with the world cycle in rich countries than in poor ones. We develop two alternative explanations based on the idea that comparative advantage causes rich countries to specialize in industries that use new technologies operated by skilled workers whereas poor countries specialize in industries that use traditional technologies operated by unskilled workers. (1) Because new technologies are difficult to imitate, the industries of rich countries enjoy more market power and face more inelastic product demand than those of poor countries. (2) Because skilled workers are less likely to exit employment as a result of changes in economic conditions, industries in rich countries face more inelastic labor supplies than those of poor countries. We show that either asymmetry in industry characteristics can generate cross‐country differences in business cycles that resemble those we observe in the data. (JEL: E32, FA5, F41)     

Family Influences on Intermarriage Attitudes: A Sibling Analysis in the Netherlands

This study examined the influence of the family on native Dutch attitudes toward having ethnic minority members as kin through marriage using multiactor data from the Netherlands Kinship Panel Study (N = 1,652). Results from multilevel models showed that 28% of the variation in ethnic attitudes can be ascribed to the family. We investigated different pathways through which the family affects these attitudes; 60% of the family influence was explained. Results revealed that the intergenerational congruence of attitudes and the transmission of attitudes and structural and cultural positions are important mechanisms. Furthermore, family characteristics in adulthood—strength and warmth of family relationships—related to intermarriage attitudes, and the strength of family relationships moderated attitude congruence within families.     

Religious differentials in infant and child mortality in Holland, 1855-1912

At least three kinds of hypothesis may be invoked to interpret religious differentials in mortality. They are (i) hypotheses that refer to characteristics, (ii) those that refer to lifestyle, and (iii) those that refer to the social isolation of minorities. This paper tests all three kinds of hypothesis using data on urban child mortality from the Hague just before and during the demographic transition. A hazard analysis suggests that economic and demographic characteristics do not account for much of the variation by religion. An analysis of seasonal mortality suggests that some of the variation may be explained by differences in lifestyle. The third kind of hypothesis is presented here for the first time. We suggest that the social isolation of small religious groups lowered their exposure to certain kinds of infectious disease. We use a simulation study to show that this hypothesis could account for part of the variation.     

Combining employment and parenthood: A longitudinal study of intentions of Dutch young adults

This paper examines the intentions of Dutch males and females with regard to combining paid employment and parenthood. Four models of how couples combine these roles are distinguished. Panel data from a representative survey among Dutch young adults show that the traditional model (the female takes care of the children and the male works full-time) is becoming less popular, whereas the supplementary model (the female takes care of the children and supplements the labor force participation of the male), and the egalitarian model (both partners share paid labor more or less equally) are becoming more popular. The no-child model is preferred by about 10% of the respondents. A multivariate analysis shows that both job characteristics, like the flexibility of working hours, and gender role attitudes are important predictors of intentions with regard to combining family and work roles.     

The Impact of Perceived Costs and Rewards of Childbearing on Entry into Parenthood: Evidence from a Panel Study

The impact of perceived costs and rewards of having a child on the actual timing of entry into parenthood is examined among women and men. To this end, data are used from a five-wave panel survey among Dutch young adults spanning 13 years. Expected costs and rewards are found to influence the timing of parenthood among both women and men. Anticipated costs to one’s career and to one’s level of individual autonomy and an anticipated increase in one’s sense of security affect the timing of entry into motherhood. Anticipated costs to one’s career and spending power, and anticipated rewards in terms of one’s sense of security and quality of the partner relationship affect the timing of entry into fatherhood.     

COUNTRY PORTFOLIOS

Capital flows to developing countries are small and mostly take the form of loans rather than direct foreign investment. We build a simple model of North–South capital flows that highlights the interplay between diminishing returns, production risk, and sovereign risk. This model generates a set of country portfolios and a world distribution of capital stocks that resemble those in the data. (JEL: F32, F34)