A toolbox of permutation tests for structural change

The sup $LM$ test for structural change is embedded into a permutation test framework for a simple location model. The resulting conditional permutation distribution is compared to the usual (unconditional) asymptotic distribution, showing that the power of the test can be clearly improved in small samples. Furthermore, the permutation test is embedded into a general framework that encompasses tools for binary and multivariate dependent variables as well as model-based permutation testing for structural change. It is also demonstrated that the methods can not only be employed for analyzing structural changes in time series data but also for recursive partitioning of cross-section data. The procedures suggested are illustrated using both artificial data and empirical applications (number of youth homicides, employment discrimination data, carbon flux in tropical forests, stock returns, and demand for economics journals).     

The scars of youth: Effects of early‐career unemployment on future unemployment experience

Does early‐career unemployment cause future unemployment? The authors approach this question using German administrative matched employer–employee data that track almost 700,000 individuals over 24 years. Instrumenting early‐career unemployment with firm‐specific labour demand shocks, they find significant and long‐lasting “scarring effects”. In the mean, each additional day of unemployment during the first eight years on the labour market increases unemployment in the following 16 years by half a day. However, quantile regressions show that the scarring effects are much stronger for individuals who already suffer from lengthy and repeated spells of unemployment.     

A mixed method approach to developing a multidimensional scale for gambling fallacy in the Korean context

This article offers an understanding of and reduces gaps in the existing literature regarding cognitive distortion (e.g. gambling fallacy) and problem gambling behaviour. The primary objective of this study is to develop a valid gambling fallacy scale for the South Korean population using qualitative and quantitative methods to thoroughly understand the underlying structure of erroneous beliefs towards gambling among recreational and problem gamblers. The study interviewed eight casino supervisors and dealers and conducted online (n = 1419 gamblers) and onsite surveys (n = 400 gamblers) in South Korea. The proposed scale satisfies reliability and numerous types of validity that provide evidence on the three distinctive underlying structures of gambling fallacy (i.e. a system to win, superstitions, and follow and blame) among the Korean population. This study carries substantial theoretical and practical implications that further assure its usability as a platform for developing scales in various cultural settings.     

Subjective well-being and exercise in the second half of life: a critical review of theoretical approaches

Research has shown repeatedly that the ??feeling better?? effect of exercise is far more moderate than generally claimed. Examinations of subgroups in secondary analyses also indicate that numerous further variables influence this relationship. One reason for inconsistencies in this research field is the lack of adequate theoretical analyses. Well-being output variables frequently possess no construct definition, and little attention is paid to moderating and mediating variables. This article integrates the main models in an overview and analyzes how secondary analyses define well-being and which areas of the construct they focus on. It then applies a moderator and/or mediator framework to examine which person and environmental variables can be found in the existing explanatory approaches in sport science and how they specify the influence of these moderating and mediating variables. Results show that the broad understanding of well-being in many secondary analyses makes findings difficult to interpret. Moreover, physiological explanatory approaches focus more on affective changes in well-being, whereas psychological approaches also include cognitive changes. The approaches focus mostly on either physical or psychological person variables and rarely combine the two, as in, for example, the dual-mode model. Whereas environmental variables specifying the treatment more closely (e.g., its intensity) are comparatively frequent, only the social support model formulates variables such as the framework in which exercise is presented. The majority of explanatory approaches use simple moderator and/or mediator models such as the basic mediated (e.g., distraction hypothesis) or multiple mediated (e.g., monoamine hypotheses) model. The discussion draws conclusions for future research.     

Visualizing Count Data Regressions Using Rootograms

The rootogram is a graphical tool associated with the work of J. W. Tukey that was originally used for assessing goodness of fit of univariate distributions. Here, we extend the rootogram to regression models and show that this is particularly useful for diagnosing and treating issues such as overdispersion and/or excess zeros in count data models. We also introduce a weighted version of the rootogram that can be applied out of sample or to (weighted) subsets of the data, for example, in finite mixture models. An empirical illustration revisiting a well-known dataset from ethology is included, for which a negative binomial hurdle model is employed. Supplementary materials providing two further illustrations are available online: the first, using data from public health, employs a two-component finite mixture of negative binomial models; the second, using data from finance, involves underdispersion. An R implementation of our tools is available in the R package countreg. It also contains the data and replication code.     

Grundrechtsschutz durch Verfahrensgestaltung: Verfassungs- und völkerrechtliche Vorgaben für die Durchführung kindschaftsrechtlicher Verfahren

Articles 6 II 2 and 2 I of the German Constitution require the Federal Republic of Germany to create procedural rules guaranteeing the fundamental rights of children. The same message may also be derived not only from Art. 6 I, but also from Art. 8 I of the European Convention on Human Rights. This is exemplified by judgements dealing with duration of proceedings, fair trial and execution of orders made by the Court.     

Geocentric Behavior Dimension of the Organization’ Performance in the Context of Globalization

The goal of the present study is to investigate and to base a new qualitative dimension of the organization’s performance, less addressed in the literature, namely the geocentric behavior dimension. Using a cross-sectional sample covering 215 countries over the period 2012–2015, our research provides empirical evidence on significant impact of the political, cultural and emotional factors (such as happiness), on the organization’s performances from a certain geocentric space. Our study may have significant implications for investors, managers, public entities or business environment, providing measurable evidence on the role of qualitative factors such as those mentioned, which act in a certain geocentric space, on the organization’s performances.