Evidence of Skill and Strategy in Daily Fantasy Basketball

Using hand-collected data from DraftKings.com, a major daily fantasy sports website, we analyze draft selections of thousands of participants in daily fantasy basketball (DFB). In our study, the first thorough examination of DFB, we show that DFB is a game in which skill is necessary for success. Using econometric analysis, we find that winning participants utilize different strategies than losing participants; for example, winning participants more frequently select NBA rookies and international players. We also find that participants paying to enter more lineups in a given contest earn profits far more often than those entering few lineups, indicating that the number of lineups entered can serve as a proxy for skill. Additionally, we provide a thorough discussion of industry characteristics, prior literature, and gameplay, which should help readers familiarize themselves with this burgeoning fantasy sports variant. This study should further the literature on the contentious activity, which has been outlawed in many U.S. states and continues to elicit controversy.     

Differences in the Environmental,Social and Economic Development of Polish–Lithuanian Trans-Border Regions

Regional development is a complex process that can be analysed in various contexts, including environmental, social and economic factors. Variations in the levels of development are naturally observed across countries and regions, but they play a special role in trans-border regions. The aim of this study is to investigate differences in the level of development of two Polish voivodships (Warmia and Mazury, and Podlasie) and two Lithuanian counties (Marijampol? and Alytus) which are trans-border regions (NUTS 4 level). The study was conducted by analysing three subordinate criteria, namely environmental, social and economic factors, as well as the overall development of the evaluated regions with the use of the analytical hierarchy process and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution methods. The evaluated trans-border regions are characterised by a predominance of rural areas and considerable variations in development. The entire area is characterised by high natural value. This is an important observation because the condition of the natural environment is a key determinant of well-being, and it directly influences the quality of life. The analysis revealed considerable demographic problems, mainly in Lithuanian regions, resulting from low population growth and a negative net migration rate which influence population structure. Disproportions in regional development call for regional policies that are adapted to local needs and resources.

     

Collaborative Care at a Distance: Student Therapists' Experiences of Learning and Delivering Relationally Focused Telemental Health

There is mounting evidence that telemental health is an effective delivery method for treating a variety of mental, emotional, behavioral, and relational health problems. While many of the therapeutic skills leading to the effectiveness of face-to-face treatments are transferable, the effectiveness of telemental health requires unique skills. The purpose of this phenomenological study was to determine the experience of learning how to use videoconferencing to deliver relationally focused mental health care. Participants included 10 graduates of a COAMFTE-accredited master's degree program emphasizing training in telemental health. Each student had practicum placements that required videoconferencing to deliver relationally based psychotherapy. Analysis of interview data revealed (a) personal reservations about distance delivery; (b) the importance of scaffolding student learning through curriculum, supervision, and mental health-care delivery protocols; (c) the technological barriers associated with this delivery method; and (d) overcoming technological barriers through intentionality.     

Programme form and service user well-being: Linking theory and evidence

Since the early 1990s, the “activation turn” has become a standard welfare orthodoxy at the heart of international welfare systems. Although policymakers talk confidently about the well-being gains of activation interventions and their employment outcomes, a growing body of research has focused instead on questions around “activation process well-being”—the potential well-being effects of participation in activation programmes themselves. The present article makes three main contributions to the theory, knowledge, and policy practice of this activation well-being literature. First, the paper develops an original conceptual framework that newly connects well-being theory, qualitative variation in programmatic form, and empirically testable well-being expectations for participating service users. Second, the paper uses multivariate statistical analyses to examine six conceptually derived hypotheses around variation in programme forms and implications for participating service users' well-being, drawing on the case study of U.K. activation policy. Noteworthy is the paper's unique distributional insights into well-being effects across different types of service users. Third, the paper offers new policy contributions around the relevance of policy form to service user well-being as well as important pointers to key programme features in this regard.     

AN EMPIRICAL EVALUATION OF INDIVIDUAL ITEM FORECASTING MODELS

A computer simulation experiment was replicated to correct errors in an earlier paper and to compare seven individual item forecasting models across five different demand patterns. Results confirm previous findings that the better forecasting model depends upon the demand pattern and the forecast horizon, as well as the noise level. Nevertheless, exponential double smoothing emerged as the most robust model.     

Civil Society,Economic Distress,and Social Tolerance

The idea that civil society is declining has been much discussed recently, for example, by Fukuyama (Trust: The Social Virtues and the Creation of Prosperity. New York: Free Press, 1995) and Putnam (The American Prospect 13 (Spring):35–42, 19937semi; Nobel Symposium, Uppsala, Sweden, August 27–30, 1994; PS: Political Science and Politics, December: 664–683:. At the same time, another stream of research suggests that racial tolerance is increasing through time (Quillian, American Journal of Sociology 101 (3):816–860, 1996; Firebaugh and Davis, American Journal of Sociology 94 (2):251–272. This paper combines ideas from several intellectual traditions to suggest that economic conditions may affect civil society, which in turn may influence social tolerance. These ideas are explored, using multivariate analysis of pooled General Social Survey data from 1972 to 1994. The results suggest that the fabric of civil society and economic conditions may contribute somewhat to espoused tolerance. Greater economic security, together with the attitudes fostered by a vibrant civil society including greater trust and less anomia, appear to increase espoused social tolerance. Period effects and the effects of other demographic factors remain strongly related to expressions of tolerance. While alternative interpretations may be offered depending on whether the interaction terms, Year × Education or Cohort × Education, are included in the analysis, the high correlation between the two suggests that these interpretations cannot be seen as oppositional. Finally and most important, the analysis reveals many parallels between espoused racial and homosexual tolerance, suggesting a more generalizable model of social tolerance.     

The Termination of Public Organizations: Theoretical Perspectives to Revitalize a Promising Research Area

While many studies deal with comparative public sector reform, the fundamental question of whether and to what extent states are actually able to abolish parts of their administrative structure remains untackled. Despite some efforts to solve this puzzle, the topic remains underestimated. This article identifies the main conceptual and theoretical problems associated with existent research on the termination of public organizations. Furthermore, the article systemizes various causal factors of termination into two broad dimensions: “organizational stickiness” and “political incentives.” Taken together, these constitute a typology, which is able to guide future empirical investigation of the termination of public organizations.