A surplus process involving a compound Poisson counting process and applications

Abstract

In this paper, we introduce a surplus process involving a compound Poisson counting process, which is a generalization of the classical ruin model where the claim-counting process is a homogeneous Poisson process. The incentive is to model batch arrival of claims using a counting process that is based on a compound distribution. This reduces the difficulty of modeling claim amounts and is consistent with industrial data. Recursive formula, some properties and relevant main ruin theory results are provided. Further, we consider applications involving zero-truncated negative binomial and zero-truncated binomial batch arrivals when the claim amounts follow exponential or Erlang distribution.     

The effects of pre-IPO corporate activity on newly-public firms' growth

We investigate firms' pre-IPO corporate activity. We find that firms involved in extraordinary – i.e., beyond momentum – amounts of acquisitions, JVs, and alliances in the year leading up to their IPOs (1) are more likely to engage in post-IPO corporate activity; and (2) enter into their first post-IPO transaction twice as fast as other firms. Our results indicate that signaling via extraordinary corporate activity can have a significant effect on entrepreneurial firms’ growth. The implications are discussed.     

Social-ecological innovation: adaptive responses to urban environmental conditions

Novel approaches to natural resource management, particularly those which promote stakeholder participation, have been put forward as fundamental ingredients for establishing resilient, polycentric forms of environmental governance. This is nowhere more pertinent than in the case of the complex adaptive systems associated with urban areas. Decentralisation of urban green space management has been posited as an element thereof which, according to resilience thinking, should contribute to the adaptive capacity of cities and the ecosystem services upon which they rely. Implicit in this move towards increased adaptive capacity is the ability to manage through innovation. Although the importance of innovation towards system adaptability has been acknowledged, little work has thus far been carried out which demonstrates that innovative use of urban green space represents a form of adaptive response to environmental conditions. The current paper reports on research which maps examples of organised social-ecological innovation (OSEI) in an urban study area and evaluates them as adaptive responses to local environmental conditions which may contribute to system resilience. The results present OSEI as a coherent body of responses to local social and environmental deprivation, exhibiting diversity and adaptability according to individual contexts. The study therefore provides evidence for the importance of local stakeholder-led innovation as in the building of adaptive capacity in urban social-ecological systems.     

The Mediating Role of Emotion Dysregulation in the Relation Between Adult Attachment Insecurity and Depression Among Young Gay and Bisexual Men

Objectives: Attachment insecurity may be more pronounced among young gay and bisexual men (YGBM). Further, attachment insecurity is associated with dysregulated patterns of emotion regulation, which can lead to depression. However, pathways linking attachment insecurity to depression are underexplored among YGBM. Methods: This study used pilot data from N?=?67 YGBM to examine if emotion dysregulation mediated the association between attachment insecurity and depression. Results: Results supported the study hypotheses. Attachment insecurity was associated with emotion dysregulation, which was associated with depression. Conclusion: Findings provide preliminary evidence that emotion regulation training may be a useful approach for addressing depression among YGBM.     

American Indian/Alaska Native Elders: A Growing Demographic that Is Changing How We View Aging

Today, AIAN Elders are more actively engaged in their families and communities, encouraging the development of intergenerational programs, language and cultural revitalization, being stewards in research conducted in their communities, as well passing on their knowledge and experiences on how to live as healthy Native people. Elders have traditionally been quiet and observant of their environment, but the current and future cohorts of Elders are advocates, leaders, and culture bearers for their families and communities and they are now in positions of leadership. Western society acknowledges the value of traditional knowledge and AIAN Elders are viewed as exemplars of healthy aging and their lessons and experiences can be attributed to our own lives. This commentary highlights the paradigm shift in how society views older adults, specifically AIAN Elders and their role in health and wellbeing.     

Sequential Monte Carlo for rare event estimation

This paper discusses a novel strategy for simulating rare events and an associated Monte Carlo estimation of tail probabilities. Our method uses a system of interacting particles and exploits a Feynman-Kac representation of that system to analyze their fluctuations. Our precise analysis of the variance of a standard multilevel splitting algorithm reveals an opportunity for improvement. This leads to a novel method that relies on adaptive levels and produces, in the limit of an idealized version of the algorithm, estimates with optimal variance. The motivation for this theoretical work comes from problems occurring in watermarking and fingerprinting of digital contents, which represents a new field of applications of rare event simulation techniques. Some numerical results show performance close to the idealized version of our technique for these practical applications.     

Can Carbon Nanomaterials Improve CZTS Photovoltaic Devices? Evaluation of Performance and Impacts Using Integrated Life‐Cycle Assessment and Decision Analysis

In emergent photovoltaics, nanoscale materials hold promise for optimizing device characteristics; however, the related impacts remain uncertain, resulting in challenges to decisions on strategic investment in technology innovation. We integrate multi‐criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and life‐cycle assessment (LCA) results (LCA‐MCDA) as a method of incorporating values of a hypothetical federal acquisition manager into the assessment of risks and benefits of emerging photovoltaic materials. Specifically, we compare adoption of copper zinc tin sulfide (CZTS) devices with molybdenum back contacts to alternative devices employing graphite or graphene instead of molybdenum. LCA impact results are interpreted alongside benefits of substitution including cost reductions and performance improvements through application of multi‐attribute utility theory. To assess the role of uncertainty we apply Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis. We find that graphene or graphite back contacts outperform molybdenum under most scenarios and assumptions. The use of decision analysis clarifies potential advantages of adopting graphite as a back contact while emphasizing the importance of mitigating conventional impacts of graphene production processes if graphene is used in emerging CZTS devices. Our research further demonstrates that a combination of LCA and MCDA increases the usability of LCA in assessing product sustainability. In particular, this approach identifies the most influential assumptions and data gaps in the analysis and the areas in which either engineering controls or further data collection may be necessary.     

Vacant land conversion to community gardens: influences on generalist arthropod predators and biocontrol services in urban greenspaces

Due to economic decline and the recent rise in home foreclosure, many U.S. cities are faced with managing large acreages of vacant land. Interest in local food production on this land has the potential to dramatically reshape the composition of greenspace found within urban landscapes. This study examined how the conversion of vacant land to urban gardens and farms influenced arthropod generalist predator populations and their ability to support biocontrol services. We found that the abundance of Coccinellidae and Syrphidae, and the activity density of Carabidae, Formicidae, and Lycosidae were equivalent among vacant lot and urban garden sites. Dolichopodidae abundance and the activity density of Linyphiidae and Opiliones were reduced in urban gardens whereas Anthocoridae abundance and the activity density of Staphylinidae were greater within urban gardens relative to vacant lots. The biocontrol service supplied by generalist predators was measured using sentinel eggs (Helicoverpa zea (Noctuiidae)) and pupae (Sarcophaga bullata (Sarcophagidae) and Musca domestica (Muscidae)). We found no difference in the biocontrol of H. zea eggs or M. domestica pupae among the focal greenspaces. We found no difference in the removal of S. bullata pupae by predators in June 2010, whereas in August 2010 a greater proportion of pupae were removed in urban garden sites relative to vacant lots. Based on these findings, we discuss the potential of the urban landscape to support generalist predators and sustainable urban gardening and farming.     

Efficient Monte Carlo simulation via the generalized splitting method

We describe a new Monte Carlo algorithm for the consistent and unbiased estimation of multidimensional integrals and the efficient sampling from multidimensional densities. The algorithm is inspired by the classical splitting method and can be applied to general static simulation models. We provide examples from rare-event probability estimation, counting, and sampling, demonstrating that the proposed method can outperform existing Markov chain sampling methods in terms of convergence speed and accuracy.     

Does race matter? Assessing consumer discrimination in the secondary basketball card market

Sociologists continue to observe the ways race permeates America's social institutions, the institution of sport being no exception. Although researchers have explored customer racial discrimination via examinations of the secondary sports card market, only three studies have explored the phenomenon in the context of basketball, a sporting context with a higher proportion of non-White players than the baseball and football leagues that have been the primary focus to date. We explore the unique way race matters on the hardwood by employing a methodological approach that previously has been used to study card collecting in other contexts. Data were obtained for 215 retired players and their rookie cards. Controlling for other factors, to include career performance, position, and card scarcity, the results reveal no direct effect of race on card values, but there is an interaction effect between race and Hall of Fame status that impacts card prices. The potential source and implications of this interaction are discussed as well as suggestions for future research.