Toward a dimensional model of risk and protective factors influencing children's early cognitive,social, and emotional development during the COVID-19 pandemic

Variation in infants’ home environment is implicated in their cognitive and psycho-social development. The pandemic has intensified variations in home environments through exacerbating socioeconomic inequalities, and increasing psychological stressors for some families. This study investigates the effects of parental (predominantly maternal) mental health, enriching activities and screen use on 280 24- to 52-month-olds’ executive functions, internalising and externalising problems, and pro-social behaviour; with socioeconomic status and social support as contextual factors. Our results indicate that aspects of the home environment are differentially associated with children’s cognitive and psycho-social development. Parents who experienced sustained mental distress during the pandemic tended to report higher child externalising and internalising problems, and executive function difficulties at follow-up. Children who spent more time engaged in enriching activities with their parents showed stronger executive functions and social competence six months later. Screen use levels during the first year of the pandemic were not associated with outcomes. To mitigate the risk of persistent negative effects for this ‘pandemic generation’ of infants, our study highlights the importance of supporting parents’ mental health. As our results demonstrate the impact of social support on mental health, investing in support services and interventions promoting building support networks are likely to be beneficial.     

TALKING ABOUT PROBABILITIES: A LOGICAL PROBLEM FOR OR/MS

The correct interpretation of a natural language statement is determined as much by convention and shared meanings as by logical content. Therefore, when the word “probability” is used in the statement of a decision problem, the intended interpretation is not always clear. If such a statement also contains explicit probability formulae, confusion and even paradox may result. In this article, a problem involving cascaded inference is interpreted in four ways, three of which are regarded by the authors as legitimate or reasonable. The problem was originally suggested by Einhorn [3] and further discussed by Libby [10]. It is suggested here that a formal, mathematicist interpretation of the word “probability” might lead to inappropriate analyses of some decisions.     

The (postcolonial) return of grand theory in American sociology: Julian Go on postcolonial thought and social theory

Julian Go's BJS annual lecture is discussed in reference to his landmark OUP text Postcolonial Thought and Social Theory (2016). Go is one of the most prominent names in a "third wave" of post-colonial thought, now spearheading a post- (or de-) colonial turn in sociological theory, something that has professionally revived the sub-field of "grand" social theory in mainstream US sociology. While endorsing the aims and substantive themes of this turn, the review raises questions about the delayed timing of this post-colonial wave in the discipline, both relative to the humanities more generally, and to the impact of post-colonialism in other national contexts. Go's challenge is, in effect, something quite particular to teaching social theory in the US sociology context. The review goes on to question how effectively the critique speaks to mainstream empirical practitioners, given its lack of focus on transforming technical methods. It concludes by raising concerns about the relationship of Go and other "third wave" decolonial theorists to Marxism and Marxist politics.     

Determining the minimum duration of treatment in tuberculosis: An order restricted non-inferiority trial design

Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the biggest killers among infectious diseases worldwide. Together with the identification of drugs that can provide benefits to patients, the challenge in TB is also the optimisation of the duration of these treatments. While conventional duration of treatment in TB is 6 months, there is evidence that shorter durations might be as effective but could be associated with fewer side effects and may be associated with better adherence. Based on a recent proposal of an adaptive order-restricted superiority design that employs the ordering assumptions within various duration of the same drug, we propose a non-inferiority (typically used in TB trials) adaptive design that effectively uses the order assumption. Together with the general construction of the hypothesis testing and expression for type I and type II errors, we focus on how the novel design was proposed for a TB trial concept. We consider a number of practical aspects such as choice of the design parameters, randomisation ratios, and timings of the interim analyses, and how these were discussed with the clinical team.