China–Africa financial markets linkages: Volatility and interdependence

The China–Africa relationship has blossomed in recent years and the scale and scope of Chinese engagement and investment in the latter have expanded enormously in the last decade. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the dynamic linkages and volatility transmission mechanisms between Chinese and African stock markets in recent years while highlighting the relative importance of Chinese capital flows and investments. We utilise dynamic forecasting models including Bayesian VAR and BEKK GARCH to estimate both price and volatility behaviours of Chinese and 15 selected African stock markets. Our empirical results indicate strong evidence of spillover effects in terms of both price movement and volatility behaviour, implying that Chinese and African stock markets are showing signs of integration. For price movement, bidirectional feedback relationships between Chinese and most of the African stock markets are observed, suggesting that both Chinese and African stock markets could influence each other. China has been building a strong African partnership and, therefore, increasing its trade and investment influences in the region. Examining volatility transmissions, at least one spillover effect (shock and/or volatility) from China to most of the African stock markets is reported. This suggests that the Chinese stock market now plays an influential role across African stock markets given that it has major investments in 46 out of 54 countries. Our findings show important portfolio management implications as a surge in Chinese investments provide new portfolio diversification opportunities for international investors. Policy-wise, we believe further market-oriented reforms and carefully designed and long-term development policies are required to boost capacity for development and achieve sustainable trade and growth.     

The four-parameter Burr XII distribution: Properties,regression model,and applications

This paper introduces a new four-parameter lifetime model called the Weibull Burr XII distribution. The new model has the advantage of being capable of modeling various shapes of aging and failure criteria. We derive some of its structural properties including ordinary and incomplete moments, quantile and generating functions, probability weighted moments, and order statistics. The new density function can be expressed as a linear mixture of Burr XII densities. We propose a log-linear regression model using a new distribution so-called the log-Weibull Burr XII distribution. The maximum likelihood method is used to estimate the model parameters. Simulation results to assess the performance of the maximum likelihood estimation are discussed. We prove empirically the importance and flexibility of the new model in modeling various types of data.     

Toward the evaluation of P(X(t) > Y(t)) when both X(t) and Y(t) are inactivity times of two systems

The inactivity time, also known as reversed residual life, has been a topic of increasing interest in the literature. In this investigation, based on the comparison of inactivity times of two devices, we introduce and study a new estimate of the probability of the inactivity time of one device exceeding that of another device. The problem studied in this paper is important for engineers and system designers. It would enable them to compare the inactivity times of the products and, hence to design better products. Several properties of this probability are established. Connections between the target probability and the reversed hazard rates of the two devices are established. In addition, some of the reliability properties of the new concept are investigated extending the well-known probability ordering. Finally, to illustrate the introduced concepts, many examples and applications in the context of reliability theory are included.     

Contracting Out and Trust in the Public Sector: Cases of Management from Hong Kong

Contracting out generates competition and market discipline that is expected help reduce cost and improve the quality of the services. Several problems were detected in contract management of the Hong Kong Housing Authority and they were related to decision-making, monitoring, evaluation and the system of accountability. An examination based on the principal-agent perspective reveals several pitfalls of contracting out in the public sector. A lack of coordination, eagerness to cut costs by accepting the lowest tender bids, improper project supervision, and inadequate manpower resulted in serious problems. This paper suggests a more careful approach to the award of contracts, monitoring and quality assurance as well as the inculcation of a spirit of trust and cooperation between the principal and agent, instead of the customary adversarial approach.     

From Domination to Alliance: Shifting Strategies and Accumulation of Power by the Bureaucracy in Bangladesh

Traditionally, the bureaucrats on the Indian subcontinent were unaccustomed to perform under political supervision, and this mindset continued to affect their relationship with politicians in Bangladesh. In the early years of Bangladesh as an independent state, the bureaucracy came under pressure to operate under political supervision, but this phase did not last long. Subsequent phases of military rule reinstated the bureaucrats in their entrenched positions and strengthened their grip over the system. After the restoration of electoral democracy in 1991, the dominant role of bureaucrats continued, mainly due to the tendency to practice confrontational politics and disregard to the political institutions. The bureaucracy draws strength from its permanent stature, organization, expertise and experience in administering the country. Using the resources at their disposal, this institution has been able to exert considerable influence. A number of reforms have been introduced to enhance the accountability of the bureaucracy. The response has been the development of a symbiotic relationship between the politicians and bureaucrats. The bureaucracy has changed its stance from a dominating approach to one of alliance with other powerful groups in the system and continues to exercise power. This has resulted in increasing politicization of the bureaucracy which affects the performance of the critical components of the government.     

Polysemy of Values or Conflict of Interests: A Multi-Disciplinary Analysis

The concept of Value is one that has opened onto many reflections throughout history, leading to the emergence of a plurality of visions, some converging, but most diverging. Nowadays, the word `Value' is frequently used, but with a definition which varies with every discipline. This makes it a polysemous and transverse notion. In this article, we present several visions anddefinitions, which have appeared in philosophy, sociology, economics, finance, marketing, management and design. Our multidisciplinary approach is not intended to select or discard any definition, but firstly we wish to enhance the polysemy of the word Value and the similarities and differences between disciplines. Secondly, we wonder if the fuzzy meaning of Value in all these disciplines is due to a confusion with the notion of `interest'. Following this idea, we propose a model of agents and interactions of the economic environment.     

Supply chain multi-state risk assessment using universal generating function

Abstract

This paper proposes a new approach to assess the supply risk beyond the classical binary assumption of either delivering the whole quantity or not. Given today’s stochastic nature of supply and the dynamic nature of demand, the different supply activities along with the chain exhibit a multi-state behaviour increasing the complexity of their risk assessment. The new approach utilizes the universal generating function (UGF) to model the different suppliers’ echelons with their various supply risk levels along all the stages of the supply chain as a multi-state risk system. The developed model was successfully implemented to assess the supply risk in a multi-state strawberry supply chain and outperformed classical approaches. Results from the case study and the validation analysis illustrated the ability of the new approach to capture the various supply levels with their associated risks leading to more informative risk assessment process. Furthermore, the developed model improved the visibility for the purchasing managers downstream in terms of the different trade-offs between supply levels and their risks as well as some financial thresholds. The new multi-state approach contributes to the emerging supply chain risk assessment trend by offering a more realistic modelling method to capture the risk of all available supply levels along the delivery chain.     

Shrinkage and pretest estimators for longitudinal data analysis under partially linear models

In this paper, we develop marginal analysis methods for longitudinal data under partially linear models. We employ the pretest and shrinkage estimation procedures to estimate the mean response parameters as well as the association parameters, which may be subject to certain restrictions. We provide the analytic expressions for the asymptotic biases and risks of the proposed estimators, and investigate their relative performance to the unrestricted semiparametric least-squares estimator (USLSE). We show that if the dimension of association parameters exceeds two, the risk of the shrinkage estimators is strictly less than that of the USLSE in most of the parameter space. On the other hand, the risk of the pretest estimator depends on the validity of the restrictions of association parameters. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimators relative to that of the USLSE. A real data example is applied to illustrate the practical usefulness of the proposed estimation procedures.     

The Impact of the Multi-divisional Structure on Organizational Slack: The Contingency of Diversification Strategy

This study examines the relationship between multi-divisional (M-form) structure and organizational slack. Findings based on longitudinal analysis data from 62 firms indicate that M-form implementation increases the firm's capacity to manage absorbed slack in the cases of vertically integrated and related diversified firms, and unabsorbed slack in the case of unrelated diversified firms.     

The relationship between individual expectations and behaviors: Mortality expectations and smoking decisions

Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, we assess the accuracy of subjective beliefs about mortality and objectively estimated probabilities for individuals in the same sample. Overall, subjective beliefs and objective probabilities are very close. However, there are differences conditional on behaviors, with current smokers being relatively optimistic and never smokers relatively pessimistic in their assessments. In the aggregate, individuals accurately predict longevity, but at the individual level, subjective beliefs provide information in addition to the estimated objective probabilities in predicting actual events, which may arise from the effect of past or anticipated decisions on these beliefs.