Normalité asymptotique d'estimateurs convergents du mode conditionnel

We state sufficient conditions for asymptotic normality of convergent estimates of the conditional mode, irrespective of data dependence, and give an application to α-mixing stationary processes.     

Multistate life table with duration dependence: An application to Hungarian female marital history

Multistate life table methods have been recognized as an excellent tool in the analysis of many types of transitions. Yet demographers have never been completely satisfied with the Markovian assumption and have stressed the importance of population heterogeneity. In marital status analysis, for example, the time spent in the current status is thought to be of first importance in determining transitions, but computational problems linked to the introduction of duration prevented any estimation of the bias in life table calculations arising from its omission. Building on recent developments in multistate demography, and using data from the 1984 Hungarian microcensus, this paper analyzes the impact that the introduction of duration-specific transitions has on the results of a multistate life table analysis of marital dissolution. The results show that the inclusion of duration has its greatest impact on the distribution of the stationary population between ages 25 and 35.Les tables de survie multi-états ont été reconnues comme un très bon instrument pour l'analyse de nombreux types de transitions. Cependant les démographes n'ont jamais été complètement satisfaits des hypothèses markoviennes et ont insisté sur l'importance de l'hétérogénéité des populations étudiées. Dans l'analyse par état matrimonial, par exemple, le temps passé dans l'état étudié est considéré comme de première importance dans la détermination des transitions. Cependant des problèmes de calcul liés à l'introduction de cette durée avaient empêché toute estimation des biais venant de son omission dans le calcul des tables de survie. Utilisant des développements récents en démographie multi-état et utilisant des données du micro-recensement hongrois de 1984, cet article analyse l'impact que l'introduction de transitions dépendant de la durée, a sur une analyse multi-état des dissolutions de mariages. Les résultats montrent que l'inclusion de la durée a un effet maximum sur la distribution de la population stationnaire, entre les âges de 25 at 35 ans.     

Tribute to Jean-Yves Jaffray

Tribute to Jean-Yves Jaffray by the French Group of Decision Theory.     

Gender homophily from spatial behavior in a primary school: A sociometric study

We investigate gender homophily in the spatial proximity of children (6–12 years old) in a French primary school, using time-resolved data on face-to-face proximity recorded by means of wearable sensors. For strong ties, i.e., for pairs of children who interact more than a defined threshold, we find statistical evidence of gender preference that increases with grade. For weak ties, conversely, gender homophily is negatively correlated with grade for girls, and positively correlated with grade for boys. This different evolution with grade of weak and strong ties exposes a contrasted picture of gender homophily.     

Extending health care coverage: Potential linkages between statutory social security and community-based social protection

Abstract   The extension of social health protection in developing countries is widely recognized as a priority. Various financing and institutional methods can be used in pursuing this objective, but none of them can achieve universal coverage in the short term. Based on an analysis of the respective strengths and weaknesses of social health insurance and community-based health care schemes, this article demonstrates the high potential of coverage extension strategies that use a pluralistic institutional approach to establish linkages and exploit complementarities optimally. A typology of potential linkages among different methods is presented and their value added illustrated using country examples.     

Painting the Prison 'Red': Constructing and Experiencing Aboriginal Identities in Prison

Dominant Western paradigms of the social work profession havelargely failed to integrate Aboriginal traditional knowledgesand practices on healing and helping. This paper contributesto the promotion of a context-based approach to social workin prison by examining Aboriginality from both institutionaland individual points of view. Drawing on documentary analysesand interviews with Aboriginal women prisoners in Canada, thepaper sheds light on the prison’s endorsement of a hegemonicvision of Aboriginality, and on social work practitioners’inclination to adhere to it. Conversely, we argue that Aboriginalwomen prisoners negotiate their passage into prison throughAboriginal self-identification configurations that often havelittle in common with the prison’s vision of Aboriginality.Service delivery in prison may be enhanced by considering individualmodes of resisting identity-based oppression in prison, andby challenging prisons’ master narrative on Aboriginality.     

A regional solution to the strategy and structure of multinationals

The transnational solution developed by Bartlett and Ghoshal is shown to be suitable for only a few special cases of multinational enterprise (MNE) strategy and structure. As MNEs have most of their assets and sales within their home region, they are in need of regional, not transnational strategy and structure. Here we provide data on the regional dimension of assets and sales of the world’s largest 500 multinationals. We explore how the empirical reality of a regional concentration of assets and sales imposes a regional solution, rather than the transnational solution.     

Estimation in the multipath change point problem for correlated data

In many experiments, several measurements on the same variable are taken over time, a geographic region, or some other index set. It is often of interest to know if there has been a change over the index set in the parameters of the distribution of the variable. Frequently, the data consist of a sequence of correlated random variables, and there may also be several experimental units under observation, each providing a sequence of data. A problem in ascertaining the boundaries between the layers in geological sedimentary beds is used to introduce the model and then to illustrate the proposed methodology. It is assumed that, conditional on the change point, the data from each sequence arise from an autoregressive process that undergoes a change in one or more of its parameters. Unconditionally, the model then becomes a mixture of nonstationary autoregressive processes. Maximum-likelihood methods are used, and results of simulations to evaluate the performance of these estimators under practical conditions are given.     

Uniform asymptotic linearity in a regression parameter of a process based on a rank statistic

For X₁, …, X_N a random sample from a distribution F, let the process S^δ_N(t) be defined as where K²_N = σ^N_i=1(c_i ? c?)² and R x_i, + Δd, is the rank of X_i + Δd_i, among X₁ + Δd₁, …, X_N + Δd_N. The purpose of this note is to prove that, under certain regularity conditions on F and on the constants c_i and d_i, S^Δ_N (t) is asymptotically approximately a linear function of Δ, uniformly in t and in Δ, |Δ| ≤ C. The special case of two samples is considered.     

Insularity and Governance: The Case of French Polynesia

Insularity, smallness and remoteness help explain specific tendencies noted in the governance of French Polynesia, a partially self-governing French overseas territory in the South Pacific, with a population of 220,000. Professional relations tend to become personalized, and impersonal and impartial procedures are hard to apply. The market for experts is small: some people are able to claim a monopoly on some type of expertise and then defend it by every means. Solidarity is vertical, not horizontal, which makes for a fragile democracy.