CUSUM Control Charts for Multivariate Poisson Distribution

A cumulative sum control chart for multivariate Poisson distribution (MP-CUSUM) is proposed. The MP-CUSUM chart is constructed based on log-likelihood ratios with in-control parameters, Θ₀, and shifts to be detected quickly, Θ₁. The average run length (ARL) values are obtained using a Markov Chain-based method. Numerical experiments show that the MP-CUSUM chart is effective in detecting parameter shifts in terms of ARL. The MP-CUSUM chart with smaller Θ₁ is more sensitive than that with greater Θ₁ to smaller shifts, but more insensitive to greater shifts. A comparison shows that the proposed MP-CUSUM chart outperforms an existing MP chart.     

The Role of Wilderness Protection and Societal Engagement as Indicators of Well-Being: An Examination of Change at the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness

A societal decision to protect over 9 million acres of land and water for its wilderness character in the early 1960s reflected US wealth in natural resources, pride in the nation’s cultural history and our commitment to the well-being of future generations to both experience wild nature and enjoy benefits flowing from these natural ecosystems. There is no question that our relationship with wilderness has changed. Individually it is probably quite easy to examine differences in the role wilderness plays in the quality of our lives today compared to some previous time. But how the role of wilderness protection has changed for society is more difficult to describe. In only a few places do we have data across multiple decades that would allow us to even examine how users or their use may have changed over time. At the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness in northern Minnesota we are fortunate to have multiple studies that can give us some 40 years of insight into how some aspects of use have changed there. For example, an analysis of results of visitor studies at the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness in 1969, 1991 and 2007 reveal some big differences in who is out there today, most notably the presence of a much older, more experienced and better educated user population, almost exclusively white and predominantly male. It is time to decide whether the best thing for wilderness and or society is to try to restore historic patterns of use (to include younger people, the less wealthy and lower educated) in greater numbers, to try to identify new markets within growing underrepresented populations, or adapt our perception of wilderness stewardship to better include planning for emerging social values of a new generation with other indicators of well-being. A growing population with greater dependence on ecosystem services provided by protected nature could lead to wilderness protection becoming an important quantitative and qualitative element of quality of life indices in the very near future.     

EC anti-dumping laws as a barrier to trade

Anti-dumping (AD) laws in the EC are intended to establish ‘fairness’ between trading partners. But there are negative effects, in particular, firms with weak firm specific advantages can shelter behind AD laws; they can even follow shelter-based strategies and lobby for protection.Alan Rugman and Michael Gestrin explain how shelter can be used as a management strategy, and how AD laws have grown up in the EC since 1979 to affect sectors of industry and geographic regions. They conclude by pointing out that a shelter-based strategy by a strong firm can undermine the very competitive pressures in its home market that made it internationally competitive in the first place.     

A Methodology for Seismic Risk Analysis of Nuclear Power Plants

This methodology begins by quantifying the fragility of all key components and structures in the plant. By means of the logic encoded in the plant event trees and fault trees, the component fragilities are combined to form fragilities for the occurrence of plant damage states or release categories. Combining these, in turn, with the seismicity curves yields the frequencies of those states or releases. Uncertainty is explicitly included at each step of the process.     

Psychosocial versus biomedical risk factors in Kevorkian's first forty-seven physician-assisted deaths

This article examines biomedical and psychosocial data on the first forty-seven cases of physician-assisted suicide (PAS) of Kevorkian as collected by means of both a physical autopsy and a preliminary psychological autopsy. The following patterns emerge: 1) The physical condition of these PAS patients was not typical of the conditions that lead to death in the United States. 2) Consistent with the above findings, our pilot data indicate that only 31.1 percent of these patients were terminal. While 73.9 percent were described as reporting pain, only 42.6 percent were revealed at autopsy to have a specific anatomical basis for their pain. However 36 percent were described as depressed, 66 percent as having some disability, and perhaps of key importance, 90 percent expressed a fear of dependency. Most important, our pilot data suggest the possibility of large gender differences, since 3) 68.1 percent of these forty-seven PAS's are women and only 31.9 percent are men. This represents the reverse of the gender pattern for completed suicides in the United States in 1995, resembling instead the approximate pattern for unsuccessful suicide attempts. 4) Approximately 75 percent of both men and women in the above sample were described as reporting pain. Men were almost twice as likely to have had an anatomical basis for the pain and three times as likely to be terminal. Our pilot data indicate PAS women are more likely to be described as depressed and twice as likely to have had a history of previous unsuccessful suicide attempts. 5) Kevorkian's patients were older than the typical unaided suicides in America. Reported pain decreases with age as does depression; however anatomical basis for pain increases slightly with age, and no age effect emerges for terminality. 6) Approximately two-thirds of those physician-assisted suicides were at middle SES levels. History of disability was the biggest risk factor for the low SES patients and fear of dependency for the high SES patients.     

Effect of the doctor on college students' attitudes toward physician-assisted suicide

Ninety-six students were presented with eighteen different vignettes describing different types of active and passive observed suicide, assisted suicide, and euthanasia. Attitudes regarding the morality and desired legality of each situation were measured. Results indicated that the interaction between the doctor and the patient, and, to a lesser extent, the active or passive nature of the agent of death, were more important than the actual actions of the doctor in allowing or causing death to occur.     

Treatment of noncustodial fathers: Gender issues and clinical dilemmas

This article addresses issues involved in the treatment of fathers who do not have custody of their children. It reviews literature on demographic trends and discusses fathers' reactions to loss of child custody. Assessment and treatment guidelines are offered so that clinical practice may become more responsive to the needs of the population. Gender concerns, particularly as they relate to transference and countertransference, are also discussed.     

Lottery winners: The myth and reality

This paper is based on a study of 576 lottery winners from 12 states. Respondents to a mailed questionnaire included winners of sums ranging from $50,000 to millions. The data indicate that popular myths and stereotypes about winners were inaccurate. Specifically, winners came from various education and employment backgrounds and they were clustered in the higher income categories than the general population indicating that lotteries might not be as regressive as popularly believed. Winners were older than the general population and more often male (60 versus 40%). There was significant association between the amount a person won and his or her work behavior. Individuals with psychologically and financially rewarding jobs continued working regardless of the amount they won, while people who worked in low paying semi-skilled and unskilled jobs were far more likely to quit the labor force. Contrary to popular beliefs, winners did not engage in lavish spending sprees and instead gave large amounts of their winnings to their children and their churches. The most common expenditures were for houses, automobiles and trips. It was found that overall, winners were well-adjusterd, secure and generally happy from the experience.This study was funded by a grant from the Institute for Socioeconomic Studies in White Plains, New York.     

Sources of Influence in the Family Therapy Field: Publication Trends in Three Major Journals1

The institutional sources of all articles published in the three major marriage and family therapy journals through 1978 are identified. The journals reviewed include: Family Process, Journal of Marital and Family Therapy, and the American Journal of Family Therapy. While no single center emerges as dominating the published family therapy literature, a small number of institutions clearly have exerted a profound impact on the literature of the field. Moreover, the absolute number of centers influencing the field is rapidly increasing, and these centers are becoming particularly influential in the newer journals in the field.