Near‐Misses and Future Disaster Preparedness

Disasters garner attention when they occur, and organizations commonly extract valuable lessons from visible failures, adopting new behaviors in response. For example, the United States saw numerous security policy changes following the September 11 terrorist attacks and emergency management and shelter policy changes following Hurricane Katrina. But what about those events that occur that fall short of disaster? Research that examines prior hazard experience shows that this experience can be a mixed blessing. Prior experience can stimulate protective measures, but sometimes prior experience can deceive people into feeling an unwarranted sense of safety. This research focuses on how people interpret near‐miss experiences. We demonstrate that when near‐misses are interpreted as disasters that did not occur and thus provide the perception that the system is resilient to the hazard, people illegitimately underestimate the danger of subsequent hazardous situations and make riskier decisions. On the other hand, if near‐misses can be recognized and interpreted as disasters that almost happened and thus provide the perception that the system is vulnerable to the hazard, this will counter the basic “near‐miss” effect and encourage mitigation. In this article, we use these distinctions between resilient and vulnerable near‐misses to examine how people come to define an event as either a resilient or vulnerable near‐miss, as well as how this interpretation influences their perceptions of risk and their future preparedness behavior. Our contribution is in highlighting the critical role that people's interpretation of the prior experience has on their subsequent behavior and in measuring what shapes this interpretation.     

Immediate and Longer-Term Connections Between Support and Stress in Pregnant/Parenting and Non-Pregnant/Non-Parenting Adolescents

Despite the substantial amount of literature focusing on social support for pregnant and parenting adolescents, few studies have directly examined the relationships among stress and social support across their transition to parenting. The present study investigates the nature of the relationship between stress and support both before and after the birth of the baby. Two groups of adolescent females (one group facing parenthood and one not) completed measures of support and stress across a 7-month period (N = 231) to coincide with the transition to parenthood. In general, support and stress were negatively related when measured concurrently and positively related over time for parenting adolescents but not the non-parenting group. Understanding how long social support impacts stress will enable practitioners to identify when best to provide interventions for pregnant and parenting adolescents.     

Einkommenseffekte beruflicher Weiterbildung

The claim for lifelong learning or vocational further training is most often set out without having clarified satisfactorily the individual gains which result from training activities. Based on human capital theory, which we extend by arguments from signaling- and game theory, the paper investigates for western and eastern Germany individual returns of training on income with longitudinal data (1996–1998) from the recently available “Mikrozensus-Panel”. A problem in identifying causal training effects is a selection bias caused by unobserved heterogeneity which – using conventional methods – leads to overestimation of the effects. Fixed- and Random-Effects-Models – which we discuss and confront empirically regarding the training issue – present a method for controlling the selection bias. The results show evidence for positive and significant training effects on income, although the actual amount of income growth is low. Whereas no differences by sex were found, separate analyses by age, skill levels and region indicate that not all of the subgroups benefit positively from further training activities. Therefore, the findings relativize the importance of social inequalities in the access to further training for the process of status attainment in general.     

Trade, education, and innovation: Prospects for the U.S. economy

This paper examines international trade issues as vital indicators of the economic prospects of the United States and other developed economies. In particular, it challenges misuses of the doctrine of mutual gains from trade and instead argues that comparative advantage does not guarantee increases in benefits to both trading partners—especially when one partner seeks to distort the market mechanism in its favor. In the face of such mercantilist or protectionist practices, efforts to advance innovation, without retaining manufacturing jobs, will not ensure continued prosperity, as the number of jobs entailed in the invention process is small compared with the number of jobs associated with manufacturing an innovative product for mass consumption. These matters call for the urgent rethinking of trade policy by the United States and other developed nations, if they are to balance their imports and exports and ensure continued economic growth.     

Revisiting the model of creative destruction: St. Jacobs,Ontario, a decade later

Ten years ago, the model of creative destruction was developed to predict the fate of communities that base their development on the commodification of rural heritage (Mitchell, C.J.A., 1998. Entrepreneurialism, commodification and creative destruction: a model of post-modern community development. Journal of Rural Studies 14, 273–286). Its application to the village of St. Jacobs, Canada, demonstrated that entrepreneurial investment had fostered the creation of a setting for aestheticized consumption. In this paper we demonstrate that creative destruction has continued to unfold in the village over the course of the past decade. The evolutionary path taken is assessed in light of current literature on rural space. It is concluded that to fully understand the transformative process, one must integrate the demands of myriad sub-cultures, whose social relations, ideologies and actions will contribute to the development of a contested landscape of consumption. This finding necessitates that modifications be made to the model and its various stages. The most significant is recognition that the “heritage-scape” is an interim state of landscape change; one that displaces the productivist landscape of the industrial period, and precedes the creation of the “neo-productivist” leisure-scape of post-industrialism. Whether or not such a “final” state is achieved is dictated by the power struggle that inevitably arises amongst sub-cultures engaged in the transformation of rural space.     

Adult–Adolescent Interaction and Adolescents' Brain Development: Integrating Pragmatism/Interactionism and Neuroscience to Develop a Platform for Research on Adolescents' Life Regulation

The aim of this paper is to outline a platform for research on adolescents' life regulation. Adolescents' brain development is described with the help of neuroscience and integrated with pragmatist and symbolic interactionist insights about how adolescents can learn to control their impulses and act thoughtfully. The foundation for the analysis is found in American pragmatism, where a biopsychosocial perspective is built on the understanding that the developed human brain is the essential precondition of a complex and civilized society. Today's interactionists, and in general, the majority of sociologists, show little interest in brain development and function. However, there is an opportunity for sociologists and neuroscientists to collaborate in order to better understand how the brain develops in relation to biological development and social experience.     

Alternative Methods for Computing the Sensitivity of Complex Surveillance Systems

Stochastic scenario trees are a new and popular method by which surveillance systems can be analyzed to demonstrate freedom from pests and disease. For multiple component systems—such as a combination of a serological survey and systematically collected observations—it can be difficult to represent the complete system in a tree because many branches are required to represent complex conditional relationships. Here we show that many of the branches of some scenario trees have identical outcomes and are therefore redundant. We demonstrate how to prune branches and derive compact representations of scenario trees using matrix algebra and Bayesian belief networks. The Bayesian network representation is particularly useful for calculation and exposition. It therefore provides a firm basis for arguing disease freedom in international forums.     

平衡景观设计中的艺术性与科学性——中国的徒手绘画与密歇根计算机辅助视觉质量评估

景观设计是一个基于科学的解决规划和设计问题的艺术性行业。本文根据Jon Bryan Burley博士2007年秋在南京林业大学为规划与设计专业师生所作的第七次演讲的内容，阐述了科学与艺术之间的平衡。Burley博士通过展示和列举他在中国工作时个人手绘作品及在密歇根所做的计算机辅助视觉质量评估工作的案例，描述了艺术和科学之间的区别、标准化的理论和科学理论之间的区别。Burley博士认为，作为设计师，艺术和科学两种方法缺一不可。随着科技的发展变化，新方法和新技术终将完美结合并被专业所接受。     

The financial practices and perceptions behind separate systems of household financial management

Qualitative research in the UK has revealed a diversity of financial arrangements underlying separate systems of household financial management. One factor, identified in previous work, is perceived ownership of money, with financial practices differing according to whether couples have distinct, blurred or shared ownership perceptions. The present work aims to build on and extend this research, using data from an online survey study with 190 cohabitants in the UK. The findings reveal that ownership perceptions transcend separate money management categories, and can be a significant predictor of the type of contribution cohabitants make towards joint household expenses.