Spatial Quantification of the Population Exposed to Cryptococcus neoformans and Cryptococcus gattii Species Complexes in Europe: Estimating the Immunocompetent and HIV/AIDS Patients Under Risk

Cryptococcus is an important fungal pathogen worldwide, causing serious clinical manifestations that can affect immunocompetent patients and can be particularly severe for immunocompromised patients. The Cryptococcus gattii s.s. (AFLP4/VGI), Cryptococcus tetragattii (AFLP/VGIV), Cryptococcus neoformans, and Cryptococcus deneoformans have been isolated from both clinical and environmental sources in Europe. We aim to quantify the people in Europe and the entire Mediterranean area who are under risk associated with each of the three fungal pathogens in a spatially explicit way, generating a series of maps and population statistics per country. Niche modeling was applied to estimate the potential distribution of each fungal pathogen, then these models were overlapped with a map of population density to estimate risk levels. The potential number of people per risk level and per country was quantified using a map of population count per pixel. Prevalence of HIV per country was also included in the analysis to quantify the HIV-infected population under potential risk. People under risk associated with exposure to C. gattii species (C. gattii s.s. and C. tetragattii) reached 137.65 million, whereas those exposed to C. neoformans and C. deneoformans were 268.58 and 360.78 million people, respectively. More than a half million HIV-infected patients are exposed to each of the two species of the C. neoformans species complex, and more than 200,000 to the C. gattii species complex. The present results can be useful for public health planning by European governments, focusing on the provision of inputs for a “screen-and-treat” approach, availability of medical resources, and continuous monitoring programs in risk zones.     

Constant hazard against a change-point alternative: a bayesian approach with censored data

A Bayesian approach to the problem of a constant hazard with a single change-point is developed using noninformative reference priors. We also present a generalization for the comparison for two treatments.     

Adversity-hope hypothesis: Air pollution raises lottery demand in China

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty - The empirical literature points to a stylized phenomenon of increased demand for hope following adversity. Clotfelter and Cook (1989) suggest that hope is a key...     

Markers of unsustainable gambling for early detection of at-risk online gamblers

In this work we propose novel markers for identifying at-risk gamblers based on the concept of sustainability. The first hypothesis here verified is that problematic gamblers oscillate between intervals of increasing wager size followed by rapid drops, probably because they exceed their economic sustainability limits. Due to the non-periodic nature of these fluctuations, the proposed marker detects a certain occurring feature, such as a rapid drop in wager size, over a wide range of fluctuation periods, drop sizes and shapes. The second marker, counting the number of games the gambler is involved in, aims at predicting possible consequences of an exceeding amount of time dedicated to gambling, that ultimately causes social and relational breakdowns. In the experimental phase we demonstrate how the adoption of these markers allows for identifying larger segments of high- and medium-risk gamblers with respect to previous research on actual betting behaviours.     

The Distribution of Wealth and Fiscal Policy in Economies With Finitely Lived Agents

We study the dynamics of the distribution of wealth in an overlapping generation economy with finitely lived agents and intergenerational transmission of wealth. Financial markets are incomplete, exposing agents to both labor and capital income risk. We show that the stationary wealth distribution is a Pareto distribution in the right tail and that it is capital income risk, rather than labor income, that drives the properties of the right tail of the wealth distribution. We also study analytically the dependence of the distribution of wealth—of wealth inequality in particular—on various fiscal policy instruments like capital income taxes and estate taxes, and on different degrees of social mobility. We show that capital income and estate taxes can significantly reduce wealth inequality, as do institutions favoring social mobility. Finally, we calibrate the economy to match the Lorenz curve of the wealth distribution of the U.S. economy.     

Evaluating housing needs with the use of GIS

Rosario (Argentina) has different levels of housing quality and access to physical and social infrastructure. To assess the needs of newly decentralised districts, it is necessary to supply the municipality with new tools to analyse weaknesses and potentialities. The use of GIS can help in this evaluation. It can be implemented at the Public Housing Service to detect problem areas and improve the allocation of resources by efficiently targeting housing needs. Indicators are used to measure different levels of housing needs and provision of basic services. Spatial inequity related to the access to social infrastructure is calculated for the most disadvantaged groups. Expressed demand is also calculated and compared with the demand derived from the indicators. According to the evaluation it can be concluded that the city of Rosario is facing disparities inside the districts. The combined use of derived demand with expressed demand proves to be efficient to detect cases of housing needs where derived demand via indicators is showing lower levels of demand or hiding the situation completely. The growing demand of GIS tools and the availability of census data in digital format will improve and consolidate the evaluation of housing needs and its effect on spatial inequity.     

On the L1‐consistency of wavelet density estimates

The authors analyze the L₁ performance of wavelet density estimators. They prove that under mild conditions on the family of wavelets, such estimates are universally consistent in the L₁ sense.