A Bayesian model for estimating the malaria transition probabilities considering individuals lost to follow-up

It is known that patients may cease participating in a longitudinal study and become lost to follow-up. The objective of this article is to present a Bayesian model to estimate the malaria transition probabilities considering individuals lost to follow-up. We consider a homogeneous population, and it is assumed that the considered period of time is small enough to avoid two or more transitions from one state of health to another. The proposed model is based on a Gibbs sampling algorithm that uses information of lost to follow-up at the end of the longitudinal study. To simulate the unknown number of individuals with positive and negative states of malaria at the end of the study and lost to follow-up, two latent variables were introduced in the model. We used a real data set and a simulated data to illustrate the application of the methodology. The proposed model showed a good fit to these data sets, and the algorithm did not show problems of convergence or lack of identifiability. We conclude that the proposed model is a good alternative to estimate probabilities of transitions from one state of health to the other in studies with low adherence to follow-up.     

Estimation of Covariate Effects With Current Status Data and Differential Mortality

The assessment of the impact that socioeconomic determinants have on the prevalence of certain chronic conditions reported by respondents in population surveys must confront two problems. First, the self-reports could be in error (false positives and false negatives). Second, those reporting are a selected sample of those who ever experience the problem, and this selection is heavily influenced by excess mortality attributable to the condition being reported. In this article, we use a combination of empirical data and microsimulation to (a) assess the magnitude of the bias attributable to the selection problem, and (b) suggest an adjustment procedure that corrects for this bias. We find that the proposed adjustment procedure considerably reduces the bias arising from differential mortality.     

On the Measurement of Interpersonal Trust Transfer: Proposal of Indexes

This paper investigates the measurement of trust transfer in interpersonal contexts. Despite the importance of this topic, little evidence of comparable indicators exists to fill the current gap in knowledge regarding the measurement of interpersonal transference of trust and its reciprocal. We propose a modification of the classical structure of a widely accepted experimental setting for analyzing trust (i.e. a trust game) and build two indexes for the measurement of trust transfer and its reciprocation. Several properties of these indicators are investigated to examine their robustness and accuracy for measuring the transference of interpersonal trust. Furthermore, using data from our own modified trust game, we provide an empirical examination of both indexes. The results show that the existence of a mutually known third party fosters a stronger willingness to achieve cooperative behavior in an anonymous trust game; thus, the transference of interpersonal trust works in both directions of the dyad.     

Incidence, Depth and Severity of Children in Poverty

Recently, the first ever estimate of the number of children living poverty in developing countries was undertaken. The incidence of child poverty was estimated by establishing how many children suffer severe deprivation in at least one out of seven indicators which are internationally recognized as their rights as well as constitutive of poverty. This is a major step forward in the analysis of poverty. In this paper, we generalize these findings on the incidence of children living in poverty by exploring how to estimate the depth and severity of child poverty. Two countries can have the same proportion of children living in poverty, however, the actual plight of children could be very different depending on how many deprivations, on average, children suffer. In addition, even if they suffer from the same average number of deprivations, these deprivation could be the same for all children or be very unevenly distributed. We show how these considerations can be used to estimate the depth and severity of poverty. We use regional data to provide applied examples of this methodology. The method proposed in this paper is similar to the one used to estimate the incidence, depth and severity of income poverty. The paper also offers some possible generalizations and ways forward for future research.     

The Structured Interview of Family Assessment Risk: Convergent Validity,Inter-rater Reliability and Structural Relations

The quality of parenting, composition and socio-economic status are family risk or protective factors on juvenile delinquency, however, there is not an instrument to help psychologists and social workers to specifically assess the adolescent offender’s family. This study set out to accomplish an additional validation study of the structured interview of family assessment risk (SIFAR), a structured professional judgment tool for the assessment of family risk and protective factors of juvenile delinquents. The statistical analyses included inter-rater reliability, convergent validity with YLS/CMI, the Partial Least Squares approach to structural equation modeling and receiving operator characteristics (ROC) analysis. A sample of 130 male adolescent delinquents detained in Portuguese forensic facilities and their parents, were paired analyzed. The YLS/CMI was used to analyze the convergent validity with SIFAR. SIFAR shows a strong correlation with the YLS/CMI family context, moderate to high values of inter-rater reliability; SIFAR factors show that they are predictive determinants of the Moderate Four risk factors. ROC analysis shows adequate accuracy power. The findings show that SIFAR it is useful as an additional assessment tool for structured risk assessment instruments since it allows understanding the vulnerabilities and strengths of the delinquent’s family.     

The Participation of Civil Society Organizations in Public Policies in Latin America

Throughout Latin America, the relationship between government and civil society organizations (CSOs) has been characterized by opposition, substitution, and submission; and, the incipient path to cooperation is barely noticeable. For their part, participatory public policies make sense within a theory of democratic governance. Democratic governance seeks two propositions: (a) participation from other social actors will give rise to more efficient government action; and (b) citizen support will emerge from the said government action. This paper criticizes the current relationships between the governments and CSOs in this region. In addition, it explores the potential strategies that could be adopted were there a cooperation between these two entities. The paper is supported by theoretical literature as well as by a revision of some cases of participatory public policies that are currently active in the region. The paper proposes that the strategies of opposition to government and government substitution have to be abandoned in this region. The paper focuses on civil organizations (CSOs). It is true that they do not constitute the entirety of civil society; however, they are frequently the most organized compared with other civic actors, such as social movements, families, and individual initiatives. CSOs form only a part of the diversity known as civil society; however, they significantly contribute to the discussion about the public good, and very often they participate in providing such goods. The future of participatory democracy in Latin America is related to our ability to achieve a more complete participation of CSOs in the entire process of participatory public policies—from the formation of public agendas to their design, implementation, and evaluation.     

How Satisfied are Spouses with their Leisure Time? Evidence from Europe

This paper first identifies the determinants of spouses’ satisfaction levels within the household with respect to their leisure time and, secondly, characterizes whether their preferences have some degree of altruistic or egoistic character in regard to this particular satisfaction. To that end, it formulates a theoretical framework from the collective family model whose stochastic formulations are estimated for 14 EU countries. The general empirical results first reveal that the presence of children has a significantly negative impact on the leisure satisfaction of both spouses. Then, increases in individual incomes lead to lower own leisure satisfaction levels. Both husbands and wives show egoistic behavior with respect to the labor and non-labor incomes (wage rate) of their respective spouses’ satisfaction levels.

Urban vegetation cover correlates with environmental variables in a desert city: insights of mitigation measures to climate change

Urban Ecosystems - Green cover and air quality are important components of life quality and human ecology in arid lands. In the Sonoran Desert of Mexico, Hermosillo is the largest city with a...     

Structure and composition of woody plants in urban forest remnants with different adjacent land-use and slope aspect

The plant community in the karst forest is influenced by mesoclimatic conditions, such as temperature and humidity and these conditions are in turn influenced by topographic features. Urban areas adjacent to karstic forest remnants also have the potential to influence mesoclimatic variables and may serve as a source of exotic species. We described the temperature and relative humidity of karstic forest remnants at slopes with combinations of either southeast (SE) or northwest (NW) aspect, and adjacent to either urban (URB) or secondary forest (SF). We also compared forest structure and composition on these slopes to understand the interaction between forest aspect and adjacent land use on the plant community. URB-SE slopes had highest temperature and lowest humidity among all adjacent land use-aspect combinations. Understory species in SE slopes had similar richness and diversity independently of adjacent land use, however within NW aspect, slopes adjacent to urban areas showed higher values than slopes adjacent secondary forest. Canopy trees species in slopes adjacent to secondary forest were more diverse and rich in SE than in NW, although no differences between aspects were detected within URB-adjacent slopes. Understory species composition was different among the four land use-aspect combinations. However, composition of canopy trees species was different only between aspect types. Most exotic species in the sites were associated with previous agricultural practices and not with current land use. Our results show a temporal and spatial influence of anthropogenic systems on the plant community in karstic forest remnants at a suburban area of Puerto Rico.