Fertility Decline in Czechoslovakia During the Last Two Centuries

The decline of fertility in Czechoslovakia on the territory of the Czech Socialist Republic began with a rise in the age at marriage; the decline of marital fertility began only after 1860. On the territory of the Slovak Socialist Republic marital fertility began to decline after 1900 without previous significant changes in the age at marriage. The differences between the demographic behaviour in the two parts of Czechoslovakia have persisted, although they are now gradually disappearing. There are other significant regional differences in the fertility decline caused by the overall process of economic and social development. The end of the demographic transition in the Czech Socialist Republic came during the 1930's and in the Slovak Socialist Republic during the 1960's.     

Diffusive nested sampling

We introduce a general Monte Carlo method based on Nested Sampling (NS), for sampling complex probability distributions and estimating the normalising constant. The method uses one or more particles, which explore a mixture of nested probability distributions, each successive distribution occupying ∼e ⁻¹ times the enclosed prior mass of the previous distribution. While NS technically requires independent generation of particles, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) exploration fits naturally into this technique. We illustrate the new method on a test problem and find that it can achieve four times the accuracy of classic MCMC-based Nested Sampling, for the same computational effort; equivalent to a factor of 16 speedup. An additional benefit is that more samples and a more accurate evidence value can be obtained simply by continuing the run for longer, as in standard MCMC.     

The Effect of Cash Transfers on Fertility: Evidence from Argentina

In 2009 Argentina introduced a large poverty-alleviation program (AUH) that provides monthly cash transfers per child to households without workers in the formal sector. In this paper we study the potential unintended effect of this program on fertility. We apply a difference-in-difference strategy comparing the probability of having a new child among eligible and ineligible mothers both before and after the program inception. The intention to treat estimations suggest a significant positive impact on fertility in households with at least one child (around 2 percentage points), but no significant effect on childless households. Given the short time window since the implementation of the AUH, we are unable to identify whether this positive effect reflects changes in the timing of births or in the equilibrium number of children.     

Modelling Marital Fertility by Age and Duration: An Empirical Appraisal of the Page Model

Page's model of marital fertility by age and duration is fitted by maximum likelihood techniques to data from 38 of the 41 developing countries that participated in the World Fertility Survey. The results indicate that the model does an excellent job of capturing variations in fertility patterns, with only two parameters. Moreover, national-level estimates of the parameter representing the degree of control of marital fertility correlate reasonably well with the proportion using contraception. On the other hand, estimates of the parameter representing the level of natural fertility correlate well with the duration of breastfeeding and with a measure of contraceptive use for spacing, but also show substantial regional variation. The paper closes with comments on several extensions and applications of the model.     

Aggregating Political Dimensions: Of the Feasibility of Political Indicators

Political indicators are widely used in academic writing and decision making, but remain controversial. This paper discusses the problems related to the aggregation functions they use. Almost always, political indicators are aggregated by weighted averages or summations. The use of such functions is based on untenable assumptions (existence of homogeneous substitution rates, total compensation, and strict monotonicity). We show through concrete examples how these hidden assumptions are likely to produce results that are basically an artifact of ad hoc decisions, which additionally contradict very fundamental notions common to all credible political theories. We suggest, also through example, that some—necessarily partial—solutions are possible.     

Characterization of social choice sets in terms of individuals' maximal sets: The fixed agenda framework

In this paper we analyze the explicit representation of fixed agenda social choice correspondences under different rationality assumptions (independence, Pareto optimality, etc.). It is well known that, under some of these assumptions, the existence of dictators, oligarchies or individuals with veto power can be proven ([6] and [10]); but only a partial characterization of the social choice set is obtained. We establish a relationship between the social choice set and the individuals' maximal sets, which explicitly describes a fixed agenda social choice correspondence that satisfies these rationality assumptions. Received: 30 December 1997/Accepted: 20 December 1999     

On the Measurement of Interpersonal Trust Transfer: Proposal of Indexes

This paper investigates the measurement of trust transfer in interpersonal contexts. Despite the importance of this topic, little evidence of comparable indicators exists to fill the current gap in knowledge regarding the measurement of interpersonal transference of trust and its reciprocal. We propose a modification of the classical structure of a widely accepted experimental setting for analyzing trust (i.e. a trust game) and build two indexes for the measurement of trust transfer and its reciprocation. Several properties of these indicators are investigated to examine their robustness and accuracy for measuring the transference of interpersonal trust. Furthermore, using data from our own modified trust game, we provide an empirical examination of both indexes. The results show that the existence of a mutually known third party fosters a stronger willingness to achieve cooperative behavior in an anonymous trust game; thus, the transference of interpersonal trust works in both directions of the dyad.     

Healthcare 4.0: trends,challenges and research directions

Abstract

This paper aims at examining the trends, challenges and theoretical gaps in the implementation of Healthcare 4.0 (H4.0) based on a scoping review of the literature. For that, we searched journal articles in four widely known databases and screened the retrieved articles to obtain a publications’ portfolio. Our findings indicate that, despite the recency of the subject, research in H4.0 has been conducted in an interdisciplinary way with a diversified set of applications and functionalities. In terms of its implementation, H4.0 has been more commonly found in hospitals’ information flows, especially the ones related to healthcare treatments. The identified implementation trends, however, neglect a more holistic approach for H4.0, which originated three main research directions for this topic. Although identified as a trending topic in the area of healthcare operations management, literature on H4.0 may be viewed as randomly conceived, lacking academic alignment and practical orientation based on a grounded theory, which we aim at providing with the present study.     

The constantly changing face of chromatin

Many recent findings have altered our vision of chromatin and its role in the regulation of cellular functions. Our perspective concerning chromatin has changed to a much more complex, but also more dynamic, view of chromatin as an entity that is intimately involved in the regulation of a variety of cellular functions. In this review, we describe the various types of proteins that alter the structure and, therefore, the function of chromatin and discuss the possible role of chromatin in cell aging. The elucidation of the mechanisms that link chromatin to aging will be one of the most exciting and striking advancements in the coming years     

A Goodness-of-Fit Test for Location-Scale Max-Stable Distributions

In this article, a technique based on the sample correlation coefficient to construct goodness-of-fit tests for max-stable distributions with unknown location and scale parameters and finite second moment is proposed. Specific details to test for the Gumbel distribution are given, including critical values for small sample sizes as well as approximate critical values for larger sample sizes by using normal quantiles. A comparison by Monte Carlo simulation shows that the proposed test for the Gumbel hypothesis is substantially more powerful than some other known tests against some alternative distributions with positive skewness coefficient.