Verbindliche und unverbindliche Grundschulempfehlungen und soziale Ungleichheiten am ersten Bildungs��bergang

While the influence of numerous individual and family characteristics on social disparities in educational achievement is examined in several studies, the relevance of institutional conditions on the attainment of different social groups is comparatively unclear. The present study adds to this debate and analyses the effect of mandatory and non-mandatory teacher recommendations on social disparities in educational participation after primary school. This is done by using unique data from North Rhine-Westphalia, where the degree of obligation of the teacher recommendation varied in terms of a natural experiment. Two transition cohorts are considered, one before and one after the change of a non-mandatory to a mandatory setting of the teacher recommendation in 2006. The results reveal that a mandatory teacher recommendation reduces the influence of social origin on the transition from primary to secondary school. This effect is especially apparent when families choose between the medium and the highest track in the German educational system, the Realschule and the Gymnasium.     

On Development,Demography and Climate Change: The End of the World as We Know it?

This paper comments on the issue of global warming and climate change, in an attempt to provide fresh perspective. Essentially, five main arguments are made. First, that the process of modern economic development has been based on the burning of fossil fuels, and that this will continue to apply for the foreseeable future. Second, that in large part due to momentum in economic and demographic processes, it is inevitable that there will be a major rise in atmospheric CO₂ during the present century. Third, that available data on global temperatures suggest strongly that the coming warming will be appreciably faster than anything that humanity has experienced during historical times. Moreover, especially in a system that is being forced, the chance of an abrupt change in climate happening must be rated as fair. Fourth, that while it is impossible to attach precise probabilities to different scenarios, the range of plausible unpleasant climate outcomes seems at least as great as the range of more manageable ones. The consequences of future climate change may be considerable; indeed, they could be almost inconceivable—with several negative changes occurring simultaneously and to cumulative adverse effect. There is an urgent need to improve ways of thinking about what could happen. Fifth, the paper maintains that the human response to other difficult ‘long’ threats—such as that posed by HIV/AIDS—reveals a broadly analogous sequence of social reactions (e.g. denial, avoidance, recrimination) to that which is unfolding with respect to carbon emissions and climate change. Therefore the view expressed here is that major behavioral change to limit world carbon emissions is unlikely in the foreseeable future, and that the broad sway of future events is probably now set to run its course.This paper is a personal assessment of what is occurring with respect to the subject of global warming and climate change. Nevertheless it is an attempt to examine the topic objectively. The paper tries to concentrate on the essentials—from both the social and the environmental sciences—and, quite deliberately, it presents basic data on the subject for the reader's own consideration. The paper's subtitle is taken from a television program broadcast in January 2005 as part of UK Channel Four's War on Terra season. I thank Tim Forsyth, Chris Wilson, and especially Brian O'Neill for their help and advice. However, and most certainly, the usual disclaimer applies.     

The demography of disadvantage

This paper discusses the contribution that demographers can make to the study of disadvantage. Demographers from Malthus onwards have been interested in analysing disadvantage through the lens of demographic variables, notably fertility, mortality and population growth, and their effect on poverty and welfare, both at an aggregate level and in terms of intra-household differences in well-being. The methodology of demography, including the concern with getting denominators right, cohort analysis and standardization procedures, can contribute to the analysis of disadvantage in many different ways. As examples, this paper highlights two issues: that of inequality of access to quality education, and the social and economic disadvantage faced by Indigenous Australians. The goal of understanding the causes of disadvantage with a view to reducing it may be best served through multidisciplinary efforts, in which demographers should play a role.     

The role of income in marriage and divorce transitions among young Americans

The paper investigates the importance of income in young Americans decisions to form and dissolve households. Using data on young American men and women from the NLSY, an important role for income in both these transitions is found. There are significant differences between young men and women. High earnings capacity increases the probability of marriage and decreases the probability of divorce for young men. High earnings capacity decreases the probability of marriage for young women, and has no impact on divorce.Thanks are due to seminar audiences at Bristol and the Royal Economic Society, two anonymous referees and the Editor for useful comments, and to Matt Dickson for preparation of the tables. Any errors are those of the authors. Responsible editor: John F. Ermisch.     

The Role of Housing Space in Determining Freedom and Flourishing in Older People

This paper takes as its central thesis Martha Nussbaum’s normative proposition that social arrangements should be evaluated primarily according to the extent of freedom people have to promote or achieve functionings they value. Using this as a lens the paper explores the housing circumstances of older people in the UK. The paper makes three points. Firstly, given that people use their homes to structure and manage their lives, the design, quality and standard of their home is therefore a critical factor in determining their “doings and beings” [Sen: 1992, Inequality Re-examined (Clarendon Press, Oxford) p. 40]. Since older people are more likely to spend greater time within the home through lower income, lessening mobility or loss of companions, this may be of greater significance to them than other age groups. Secondly the paper argues that the design of “specialist” dwellings for older people where there is a shifting balance between housing and care has played a part in shaping the thinking about the position and status of older people as well as providing a material context in which older people live [Laws: 1994, Environment and Planning A 26: pp. 1787–1802]. This paper suggests that this context may alter or deny many aspects of life that may be meaningful to individuals and therefore may inhibit rather than promote human flourishing. The paper draws mainly on a small qualitative study in which older people spoke of their home and its meaning. Quotations from this work are given in italics.     

The importance of non-linearity: A comment on the views of Taylor

Summary Taylor's (1984) view that his power law is better measurement of the distribution pattern of animals than 1/k, I _ρ and relation because almost all the data on means and variances of given species could be fitted by the power low, was critisized. Changes in values of 1/k, I _ρ and suggest the change of distribution pattern of the species, but the data can still be fitted by the power law because of the great linearizing power of log-log plots, and, using the power law only, we shall overlook the information on the meaningful changes in the distribution pattern.     

The adaptive significance of leaf-mining pattern as an anti-parasitoid strategy: A theoretical study

Summary An adaptive significance of linear leaf mining patterns as the anti-parasitoid strategy is theoretically analysed. In the model, a leaf-miner is allowed to move in one of four ways; mining ahead in unexploited area of a leaf, backtracking, branching off from the backtracking mine, and crossing the previous mine. The model parasitoid searches for the leaf-miner by tracing the mine by the tactile cue of mine surface after detecting the mine. The average duration from detecting the mine to finding the leaf-miner host is calculated for various patterns of mining, changing numbers of branches and of crosses. This average duration becomes longer when the leaf-miner stays near either end of the mine compared with when staying near its center. It is also prolonged as the numbers of branches and of crosses increase.     

Children and return migration

We explore reasons for return migrations which are motivated by immigrants concerns about their children. We develop a simple model, where parents have paternalistic preferences. We show that parental concerns about the child may lead to an increase, or to a decrease in the tendency to return to the home country. Our model suggests that return plans of the parent may respond differently to the presence of daughters than to the presence of sons. The empirical test of our models relies on the exogeneity of childrens gender. We use a survey panel data set, containing information on both return realisations over 14 years, and intended return plans. Our results lend support to the hypothesis that children influence return plans of their parents.I am grateful to Jerome Adda, Jaap Abring, David Card, Slobodan Djajic, and Ian Preston for comments on earlier versions of this paper. Responsible editor: Christoph M. Schmidt.