WinBUGS - A Bayesian modelling framework: Concepts,structure, and extensibility

WinBUGS is a fully extensible modular framework for constructing and analysing Bayesian full probability models. Models may be specified either textually via the BUGS language or pictorially using a graphical interface called DoodleBUGS. WinBUGS processes the model specification and constructs an object-oriented representation of the model. The software offers a user-interface, based on dialogue boxes and menu commands, through which the model may then be analysed using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. In this paper we discuss how and why various modern computing concepts, such as object-orientation and run-time linking, feature in the software's design. We also discuss how the framework may be extended. It is possible to write specific applications that form an apparently seamless interface with WinBUGS for users with specialized requirements. It is also possible to interface with WinBUGS at a lower level by incorporating new object types that may be used by WinBUGS without knowledge of the modules in which they are implemented. Neither of these types of extension require access to, or even recompilation of, the WinBUGS source-code.     

Radical Normals: The Moral Career of Straight Parents as Public Advocates for Their Gay Children

Sociological research has examined straight parents in “traditional” family arrangements who become gay rights activists, but pays insufficient attention to how this puzzling identity comes into being. Drawn from observations and interviews of parents participating in a local chapter of Parents and Friends of Lesbians and Gays (PFLAG) (2009 to 2010), this paper analyzes the parenting activities undertaken by straight parents of gay children as a moral career, involving stages of acceptance that can lead to eventual public advocacy. Paradoxically, these parents become radical normals through these stages; that is to say, they “do” the work of parenting by becoming gay rights advocates, motivated by commitments to conventional imperatives of loving and supporting a child. Using the conceptual scaffolding of the moral career, this paper identifies the mechanisms that move parents through these different career stages.     

Caring Adults: A Brief Report Assessing Adults’ Needs in Feeling More Comfortable Having Sexual Health Conversations with Youth in South Texas

Abstract

Objectives: As part of a larger Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration-funded project in South Texas, this study sought to understand adults’ needs with regard to engaging in sexual health conversations with youth and young adults.

Methods: A total of 223 participants were surveyed to assess comfort engaging in sexual health conversations. Data were analyzed using thematic coding. Stigma surrounding sexual health conversations underlined all themes.

Results: Differences by gender and sexual orientation in the data were noted. Stigma around sexual health topics reduced participants’ comfort.

Conclusions: To this end, interventions must go beyond psychosocial and educational programs and address societal factors that contribute to the stigma.     

Analysis of ranked data in randomized blocks when there are missing values

Data consisting of ranks within blocks are considered for randomized block designs when there are missing values. Tied ranks are possible. Such data can be analysed using the Skillings–Mack test. Here we suggest a new approach based on carrying out an ANOVA on the ranks using the general linear model platform available in many statistical packages. Such a platform allows an ANOVA to be calculated when there are missing values. Indicative sizes and powers show the ANOVA approach performs better than the Skillings–Mack test.     

X2 and its components as tests of normality for grouped data

We consider testing for an unobservable normal distribution with unspecified mean and variance. It is only possible to observe the counts in groups with boundaries specified before sighting the data. On the basis of a small power study, we recommend the usual X² test be used as an omnibus test, augmented by informal examination of the first two non-zero components of X². We also recommend use of maximum likelihood and method of moments estimation.     

Too Much Fun: Toys as Social Problems and the Interpretation of Culture

Toys are a frequent subject of contemporary claims concerning social problems. Rooted in our culture's longstanding ambivalence regarding leisure and its concerns about children's vulnerability, claims about troublesome toys also reflect anxiety about children's increased susceptibility to non-familial influences, their growing access to toys, and an expanded toy industry, as well as an active social movement sector. Typically, these claims argue that toys represent undesirable values, and that children who play with the toys acquire those values. Parallel arguments may be found in claims regarding other forms of popular and material culture. Interactionists should be wary of making or accepting these claims, because rather than treating children's play as a topic (or empirical study, such claims locate meaning in objects, rather than actors.     

Blumer’s dilemma: The critic as a tragic figure

Herbert Blumer criticized sociological research for its failure to confront obdurate, empirical reality. However, Blumer conducted little research of his own. An examination of his works on crowds, fashion, and social problems reveals some of the same problems he found in others’ works. Blumer illustrates how critics risk becoming tragic figures, wedded to theoretical principles that cannot be put into practice. Thanks to Irwin Deutscher, John Lofland, Kathleen Lowney, David Maines, and Robert Prus for helpful comments on earlier drafts of this paper.     

Hierarchical related regression for combining aggregate and individual data in studies of socio-economic disease risk factors

Summary.  To obtain information about the contribution of individual and area level factors to population health, it is desirable to use both data collected on areas, such as censuses, and on individuals, e.g. survey and cohort data. Recently developed models allow us to carry out simultaneous regressions on related data at the individual and aggregate levels. These can reduce 'ecological bias' that is caused by confounding, model misspecification or lack of information and increase power compared with analysing the data sets singly. We use these methods in an application investigating individual and area level sociodemographic predictors of the risk of hospital admissions for heart and circulatory disease in London. We discuss the practical issues that are encountered in this kind of data synthesis and demonstrate that this modelling framework is sufficiently flexible to incorporate a wide range of sources of data and to answer substantive questions. Our analysis shows that the variations that are observed are mainly attributable to individual level factors rather than the contextual effect of deprivation.