Tendencies of the Development of Public Service in Lithuania

The article analyzes the development of the Lithuanian civil service and the influence of some of the prevailing models of public management on the changes that occurred in the service. It also reviews the attitude of society and experts towards the bureaucracy and points out that in Lithuania, society is becoming more and more skeptical about politics and the whole public environment. It emphasizes that it is not easy to implement the managerial approach in the Civil Service in post-Communist states.     

The Total Marital Fertility Rate and Its Extensions

What we will call the age-based TMFR is computed conventionally by adding up age-specific marital fertility rates in the hope of estimating the number of children ever born to a woman who is married throughout her childbearing years. Demographers have long been strongly skeptical about this quantity because it normally indicates implausibly many children. Our analysis of data from the Romanian GGS confirms this finding, and we propose an alternative duration-based TMFR computed in the spirit of parity-progression ratios. At the same time, we extend the method to cover any type of living arrangement (cohabitation, marriage, non-partnered arrangement, and so on). Because each resulting total union-type fertility rate (TUFR) explicitly accounts for the living arrangement, it improves on the conventional total fertility rate (TFR), which does not. We embed the investigation in an event-history analysis with fixed and time-varying control covariates and find patterns of relative risks for such variables that reveal interesting features of childbearing behavior in the Romanian data, which we use to illustrate the method. In most cases, these patterns are quite robust against model re-specification, including the shift from the age-based to the duration-based approach. Since, the number of female respondents is ??only?? about 6,000 (minus records that cannot be used for the current purpose) in a normal single-round GGS, there is considerable inherent random variation in the data set, but we show that simple few-term moving average graduation suffices to overcome this problem.     

Ein empirischer Validit?tsvergleich zwischen Adaptive Self-Explicated Approach (ASE), Pairwise Comparison-based Preference Measurement (PCPM) und Adaptive Conjoint Analysis (ACA)

The increasing complexity of many products makes high demands on methods used for measuring consumer preferences. In such cases, practitioners frequently use Adaptive Conjoint Analysis (ACA). However, compositional approaches also proved to be efficient. Recently, Srinivasan and Netzer (2011) suggested a promising compositional technique called the Adaptive Self-Explicated Approach (ASE), which significantly outperformed ACA regarding its predictive validity. Another advantageous approach, called Pairwise Comparison-based Preference Measurement (PCPM), was introduced by Scholz et al. (2010). This paper contrasts the popular ACA with these two new compositional approaches and discusses the validity results of an empirical study in the leisure industry. For two out of three criteria PCPM partly leads to a significantly higher predictive validity and a halving of the survey time. As products and services become more complex, multi-attribute preference meas urement techniques have to cope with a large number of attributes. Particularly Adaptive Conjoint Analysis (ACA) and compositional approaches are often applied to complex products. Two new alternative compositional approaches have been recently proposed, the Adaptive Self-Explicated Approach (ASE, Srinivasan und Netzer 2011) as well as Pairwise Comparison-based Preference Measurement (PCPM, Scholz et al. 2010). In first empirical applications, the authors found that the predictive validity of ASE and PCPM was significantly higher than that of ACA. In an empirical study involving theme parks, we compare ASE and PCPM as well as the benchmark ACA with respect to several criteria of validity. We find that the predictive validity is significantly higher for the PCPM with respect to two (out of three) criteria. Moreover, the PCPM survey was about half the length of the ACA survey.     

Can Marriage Reduce Risky Health Behavior for African-Americans?

This paper estimates whether marriage can improve health outcomes for African-Americans through changes in risky health behaviors like smoking, drinking, and drug use. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study on Adolescent Health and propensity score matching methodology to account for the potential selection bias, the results show that marriage does lead to a reduction in risky health behaviors, specifically drinking and drug use. This question has important policy implications because if marriage has the same benefits for African-Americans as it does for the general population, social welfare programs can be re-evaluated to incorporate marriage promotion, and further support can be given to programs that decrease adverse health behaviors.     

Translating family-focused prevention science into public health impact

Underage drinking is a pervasive problem in the United States, with serious consequences for youth, families, communities, and society as a whole. Family-focused preventive interventions for children and adolescents have shown potential for reducing underage drinking and other problem behaviors. Research findings indicate that clear advances have been made, in terms of both the number of evidence-based interventions available, and in the quality of the methods used to evaluate them. To fully reap the benefits of such preventive interventions and achieve public health impact, the findings of family-focused preventive intervention science must be translated into real-world, community practices. This type of translation can be enhanced through four sets of translational impact factors-effectiveness of interventions, extensiveness of their population coverage, efficiency of interventions, and engagement of eligible populations, with sustained quality intervention implementation. Findings from studies conducted by researchers at the Partnerships in Prevention Science Institute and other empirical work highlight the importance of these factors. A model for community- university partnerships has been developed that potentially can facilitate the dissemination and public health impact of universal interventions to prevent underage drinking and other problem behaviors. This model fits well within a comprehensive strategic framework for promoting effective prevention.     

Fighting in the legal grey area: an analysis of the German Federal Court of Justice decision in case preimplantation genetic diagnosis

According to the German Embryo Protection Act, PGD has been banned in Germany since 1990; one reason is the legislature’s avoiding to insert a revision clause regarding medical advance into the law. The ruling of the German Federal Court of Justice of July 2010 shows the problems resulting out of this approach and declares PGD to be permitted in certain cases. The article discusses the necessity for, as well as the problems of, an interdisciplinary dialogue in the field of reproductive medicine.     

Verbindliche und unverbindliche Grundschulempfehlungen und soziale Ungleichheiten am ersten Bildungs��bergang

While the influence of numerous individual and family characteristics on social disparities in educational achievement is examined in several studies, the relevance of institutional conditions on the attainment of different social groups is comparatively unclear. The present study adds to this debate and analyses the effect of mandatory and non-mandatory teacher recommendations on social disparities in educational participation after primary school. This is done by using unique data from North Rhine-Westphalia, where the degree of obligation of the teacher recommendation varied in terms of a natural experiment. Two transition cohorts are considered, one before and one after the change of a non-mandatory to a mandatory setting of the teacher recommendation in 2006. The results reveal that a mandatory teacher recommendation reduces the influence of social origin on the transition from primary to secondary school. This effect is especially apparent when families choose between the medium and the highest track in the German educational system, the Realschule and the Gymnasium.     

On Development,Demography and Climate Change: The End of the World as We Know it?

This paper comments on the issue of global warming and climate change, in an attempt to provide fresh perspective. Essentially, five main arguments are made. First, that the process of modern economic development has been based on the burning of fossil fuels, and that this will continue to apply for the foreseeable future. Second, that in large part due to momentum in economic and demographic processes, it is inevitable that there will be a major rise in atmospheric CO₂ during the present century. Third, that available data on global temperatures suggest strongly that the coming warming will be appreciably faster than anything that humanity has experienced during historical times. Moreover, especially in a system that is being forced, the chance of an abrupt change in climate happening must be rated as fair. Fourth, that while it is impossible to attach precise probabilities to different scenarios, the range of plausible unpleasant climate outcomes seems at least as great as the range of more manageable ones. The consequences of future climate change may be considerable; indeed, they could be almost inconceivable—with several negative changes occurring simultaneously and to cumulative adverse effect. There is an urgent need to improve ways of thinking about what could happen. Fifth, the paper maintains that the human response to other difficult ‘long’ threats—such as that posed by HIV/AIDS—reveals a broadly analogous sequence of social reactions (e.g. denial, avoidance, recrimination) to that which is unfolding with respect to carbon emissions and climate change. Therefore the view expressed here is that major behavioral change to limit world carbon emissions is unlikely in the foreseeable future, and that the broad sway of future events is probably now set to run its course.This paper is a personal assessment of what is occurring with respect to the subject of global warming and climate change. Nevertheless it is an attempt to examine the topic objectively. The paper tries to concentrate on the essentials—from both the social and the environmental sciences—and, quite deliberately, it presents basic data on the subject for the reader's own consideration. The paper's subtitle is taken from a television program broadcast in January 2005 as part of UK Channel Four's War on Terra season. I thank Tim Forsyth, Chris Wilson, and especially Brian O'Neill for their help and advice. However, and most certainly, the usual disclaimer applies.     

The demography of disadvantage

This paper discusses the contribution that demographers can make to the study of disadvantage. Demographers from Malthus onwards have been interested in analysing disadvantage through the lens of demographic variables, notably fertility, mortality and population growth, and their effect on poverty and welfare, both at an aggregate level and in terms of intra-household differences in well-being. The methodology of demography, including the concern with getting denominators right, cohort analysis and standardization procedures, can contribute to the analysis of disadvantage in many different ways. As examples, this paper highlights two issues: that of inequality of access to quality education, and the social and economic disadvantage faced by Indigenous Australians. The goal of understanding the causes of disadvantage with a view to reducing it may be best served through multidisciplinary efforts, in which demographers should play a role.