Marriage Advantage in Subjective Well-Being: Causal Effect or Unmeasured Heterogeneity?

I investigate whether the marriage advantage in subjective well-being is a true protective effect vs. being attributable to self-selection into (or out of) marriage based on pre-existing mental health. I utilize 1,240 respondents from the GSS panel, a three-wave longitudinal survey collected from 2010–2014. I use a pseudo-treatment approach to informally test for the presence of self-selection. This is followed by a fixed-effect regression analysis to eliminate its influence when estimating the marriage effect. Results support the existence of self-selection: the currently married who in later waves will be exiting marriage are already more distressed than other married respondents in wave 1. And the currently not married who in later waves will be entering marriage are not more distressed in wave 1 than those remaining continuously married. A protective effect is also supported: at any given time, net of self-selection, the currently married are less distressed than the unmarried.     

Vorsichtige Rechnungslegung und Informationsgehalt

This paper contributes to the current and controversial debate about costs and benefits of conservatism in financial reporting. It presents a formalization of conservatism of an information system and shows that, holding precision constant, an increase of the probability of bad signals reduces their information content. This can make the interpretation of bias as conservative or aggressive ambiguous. It has also consequences for the association of market returns and earnings, which is used in empirical estimates of accounting conservatism. The paper discusses several models that show economic benefits of conservatism.     

Till Discord Do Us Part: The Role of Physical and Verbal Conflict in Union Disruption

The focus of this study was the extent to which physical aggression and, to a lesser extent, verbal conflict predict relationship dissolution in a national sample. Data were from a 5‐ to 7‐year follow‐up of 3,508 married and cohabiting couples in the National Survey of Families and Households. Controlling for demographic factors and verbal conflict, male violence significantly elevated the risk of disruption between waves. Female violence was not a predictor of disruption. Much of the effect of male violence was accounted for by its association with reduced relationship quality. The impact of male violence did not appear to differ according to the female partner's socioeconomic resources or whether couples were in formal or informal unions.     

Family policy and the under-3s: Money, services, and time in a policy package

The key components of social policy toward the elderly and disabled, and policies for families and their children, have featured what are by now widely employed income and service components. Now, as demographic and social change have motivated increasing numbers of countries to face the need for societal policies for children under the age of 3, exploration reveals the centrality of an additional policy dimension — time. A six-country study and earlier research targeted on this group finds that several major policy patterns are emerging, with individual country choices reflecting history, culture, religious traditions, political configurations, and resources. Referring to illustrative countries, the paper explicates these options: (a) supporting an at-home parent in "family work"; (b) backing a pattern of involvement of parents in both family and work; (c) offering parents of very young children the option of concentrating on family or work; (d) stressing programmes in support of the socialization and education of young children and their parents. It is suggested that social security institutions internationally contribute to these new developments through data collection, dissemination activities, and encouragement of discussion and research.     

Even Risk-Averters may Love Risk

A decision maker bets on the outcomes of a sequence of coin-tossings. At the beginning of the game the decision maker can choose one of two coins to play the game. This initial choice is irreversible. The coins can be biased and the player is uncertain about the nature of one (or possibly both) coin(s). If the player is an expected-utility maximizer, her choice of the coin will depend on different elements: the nature of the game (namely, whether she can observe the outcomes of the previous tosses before making her next decision), her utility function, the prior distribution on the bias of the coin. We will show that even a risk averter might optimally choose a riskier coin when learning is allowed. We will express most of our results in the language of stochastic orderings, allowing comparisons that are valid for large classes of utility functions.     

Two Problems of the Graduate Program

The establishment of the BSW as the beginning professional degree including the “base” content of professional education is precipitating structural changes in social work education that could provide a unique opportunity for the establishment of a truly “advanced” two-year MSW. However, the path of least resistance currently practiced forecloses this alternative in favor of advanced standing and a one-year MSW for BSW graduates and the vague possibility of a practice doctorate as the way to upgrade professional education. This dilemma/opportunity is examined here, a case is made for an upgraded two-year MSW, and strategy to facilitate its implementation is suggested.     

How might sovereign bond yields in Asia Pacific react to US monetary normalisation under turbulent market conditions?*

This paper examines the potential impact of US monetary normalisation on sovereign bond yields in Asia Pacific. We apply the quantile vector autoregressive model with principal component analysis to the assessment of tail risk of sovereign debt, which may not be detectable using traditional OLS-based analysis. Our empirical evidence suggests that US Treasury bond yields can have a significant impact on sovereign bond yields in the region, an important channel through which monetary normalisation by the Fed can affect Asia-Pacific economies. Increases in sovereign bond yields will not only compromise the ability of the sovereigns in the region to service their debt but also translate into higher costs of borrowing for the rest of economy. The results show how much the outsized impact could potentially be if US monetary normalisation somehow turns out to be much more disorderly than expected.