An iterative self-weighting procedure for fitting straight lines to heteroscedastic data

An iterative, self-weighting procedure is presented for the fitting of straight lines to data with heteroscedastic error-variances in the response variable. The error-variances are assumed to be unknown, even relative to each other. The procedure is compared with the “resistant line” method advocated by Emerson and Hoaglin [Emerson and Hoaglin, 1983], using extensive Monte-Carlo calculations. The proposed method is simple and easily automated, and gives parameter-estimates with smaller variance (higher efficiency) than those resulting from the resistant line technique. A BASIC program to perform the self-weighting fit is given in an appendix     

Simulating History: The Problem of Contingency

Simulations of world history, like the real thing, are complex systems whose outcomes most often (if not always) constitute highly contingent events. Rarely (if ever) will researchers be able to find unqualified main effects that explain important outcome measures that affect the security and prosperity of the world community. The problem of contingency for testing hypotheses about the causes of certain types of outcomes (e.g., mass killing, starvation, economic collapse) from only a few simulations of history is discussed with reference to the Global Change Game simulation reported by Altemeyer (2003) .     

Utilitarian Preferences With Multiple Priors

This paper proposes a method for aggregating individual preferences in the context of uncertainty. Individuals are assumed to abide by Savage's model of Subjective Expected Utility, in which everyone has his/her own utility and subjective probability. Disagreement on probabilities among individuals gives rise to uncertainty at the societal level, and thus society may entertain a set of probabilities rather than only one. We assume that social preference admits a Maxmin Expected Utility representation. In this context, two Pareto‐type conditions are shown to be equivalent to social utility being a weighted average of individual utilities and the social set of priors containing only weighted averages of individual priors. Thus, society respects consensus among individuals' beliefs and does not add ambiguity beyond disagreement on beliefs. We also deal with the case in which society does not rule out any individual belief.     

Attitudes towards judicial review in Japan and South Korea: indications for the existence of a liberal-democratic civic culture

Though very close geographically and culturally, postwar Japan and the Republic of Korea – both non-classical Western democracies – each experienced a very different democratization process and adopted a different kind of democratic regime. This is strongly expressed in the form of their judicial review mechanisms that are aimed in different ways at assisting citizens in encouraging the courts to review laws and policies. Given this backdrop, through the analysis of the attitudes of the Japanese and Korea's citizens to their judicial review mechanisms we search for civic attitudes in these societies. By doing so, we try to contribute to the great debate regarding the capability of non-Western societies that did not develop from a well-rooted liberal culture to adopt and internalize liberal-democratic values.     

The sex offender in Minnesota

J. Dudley Chapman, D.O.: The Feminine Mind and Body. Philosophical Library, New York, 1967. 325 pages. Price $6.95.

Eric W. Johnson: Love if Sex In Plain Language. J. B. Lippincott Company, Philadelphia and New York, 1965. 68 pages. Price $2.95.

Sophia J. Kleegman and Sherwin A. Kaufman: Infertility in Women. F. A. Davis Company, Philadelphia, 1966.

Richard H. Klemer, Ph.D. (ed.): Counseling in Marital and Sexual Problems. A Physician's Handbook. Williams &; Wilkins Co., Baltimore, 1965. 309 pages. Price $9.75.

Hans Lehfeldt, M.D. and Henry Guze, Ph.D.: Psychologic Factors in Contraceptive Failure. Fertility and Sterility, 17: 1, January 1966, 110–115.

Alexander Lowen: The Betrayal of the Body. The Macmillan Co., New York, 1967, 307 pages. Price $6.95.

Douglas Murphy, M.D., and Editha F. Torrano, M.D.: Donor Insemination. Fertility and Sterility, 17: 2, March‐April 1966, pp. 273–277.

Sam Blum. What Every Nice Boy Knew About Sex. B. Geis Associates‐Random House, New York, 1967.

Frank H. Netter, M.D.: Endocrine System and Selected Metabolical Diseases. Vol. IV, The Ciba Collection of Medical Illustrations. Guest Editor: Peter H. Forsham, M.D. Ciba Pharmaceutical Company, Summit, N.J., 1965. 287 pages. Price $ 22.00

Hyman Spotnitz and Lucy Freeman: The Wandering Husband. Prentice‐Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, N. J., 1964. 224 pages. Price $4.95.

Russel Trainer: The Lolita Complex. Citadel Press, New York, 1966. 315 pages. Price $6.95.     

Probabilities for separating sets of order statistics

Consider a set of order statistics that arise from sorting samples from two different populations, each with their own, possibly different distribution functions. The probability that these order statistics fall in disjoint, ordered intervals and that of the smallest statistics, a certain number come from the first populations is given in terms of the two distribution functions. The result is applied to computing the joint probability of the number of rejections and the number of false rejections for the Benjamini-Hochberg false discovery rate procedure.     

Threats to Democracy: A Judgment and Decision-Making Perspective

Democracy as a political form of social organization offers humanity its best prospect for freedom and peace. Today, it faces deliberate threats from totalitarian movements that rely on terrorist tactics. Democracy also faces threats from its own leaders because of the consequential nature of their judgment and decision making. This article examines how threats to democracy are perceived and managed. It is proposed that perception and management of threats to democracy represent a case of judgment and decision making under uncertainty. Relevant factors that influence policy decision making as it pertains to safeguarding democracies from threat are highlighted.     

Who Benefits Most from Financial Aid? The Heterogeneous Effect of Need‐Based Grants on Students' College Persistence*

Objectives. This study assesses whether need‐based grants are equally conducive to the college persistence of students from various economic strata and the extent to which a redistribution of funds can narrow economic‐based inequality in college persistence. Methods. To estimate the causal effect of need‐based grants on several persistence outcomes the discontinuity created in the dollar amounts of Pell grants when the students have siblings attending college is exploited. The analyses use a nationally representative sample of students enrolled at four‐year institutions in 1995. Results. While the allocation of Pell Grants responds to students' pecuniary constraints, institutional and state grants expand the circle of recipients to more well‐off students. Yet, it is only the persistence of students from the bottom half of the income distribution that is sensitive to aid amounts. If the need‐based funds granted to affluent students had been diverted to these students, the gap in first‐year persistence would have been closed. Conclusions. For a redistribution of funds to boost degree attainment and achieve equality of educational opportunity it must be based on stricter means‐tested allocations of nonfederal funds as they are the main source of need‐based aid.