Statistics and the Bayesian mind

Did German flying bombs really target the poorer areas of London—or did the poor people underneath them just think that they did? How many millions of dollars will the current re-make of King Kong really gross? Oh, and how many taxis are there in London? The human mind can make very good guesses, it seems—and it uses Bayesian analysis to do so. Tom Griffiths and Joshua Tenenbaum explain.     

“I Did Not Get that Job Because of a Black Man...”: The Story Lines and Testimonies of Color-Blind Racism

In this paper we discuss the dominant racial stories that accompany color-blind racism, the dominant post–civil rights racial ideology, and asses their ideological role. Using interview data from the 1997 Survey of College Students Social Attitudes and the 1998 Detroit Area Study, we document the prevalence of four story lines and two types of testimonies among whites. We also provide data on ideological dissidence among some whites (we label them racial progressives) and blacks. We show that although these stories, and the racial ideology they reinforce, have become dominant, neither goes uncontested.     

Threat, Group Identification, and Children's Ethnic Prejudice

This experiment tested predictions from social identity development theory (SIDT, Nesdale, 1999 ), that children's tendency to show out‐group prejudice depends on the strength of their in‐group identification and/or their perception of threat from the out‐group. Anglo‐Australian children (N= 480) aged 6, 7, or 9 years were assigned to a high‐status team and their identification with the in‐group (high vs. low) was manipulated together with threat from the out‐group (present vs. absent). The members of the out‐group were revealed to be of the same (Anglo‐Australian) or different (Pacific Islander) ethnicity to the in‐group. Results supported the SIDT predictions. In addition, consistent with socio‐cognitive theory (ST, Aboud, 1988 ), dislike for the out‐group at 6 years gave way to increasingly neutral reactions by 9 years of age. Ethnic composition of the out‐group did not impact differentially on liking but it did affect the children's desire to change groups. Strongly identified children were reluctant to leave their group regardless of the ethnicity of the out‐group, whereas children with low in‐group identification were more willing to change into a same‐ than into a different‐ethnicity out‐group. It is concluded that both social identity and social cognitive processes are implicated in the development of prejudice in middle childhood.     

ASPECTS OF CORRELATION IN BIVARIATE POISSON DISTRIBUTIONS AND PROCESSES

This paper reviews some interesting but scattered results that are known about correlation in bivariate Poisson distributions and processes and presents some new results. A particular concern in both contexts is with results and examples relating to negative correlation.     

Leader vision formation and forecasting: The effects of forecasting extent,resources, and timeframe

Vision formation, and vision articulation, is held to be a central component of leader performance. Less is known, however, about the variables giving rise to viable visions. In the present effort, the impact of forecasting on vision formation was examined. Study participants were asked to write a speech describing their vision for a new school. Prior to writing this speech, participants were asked to forecast the outcomes of vision implementation. It was found that the extent of forecasting, along with forecasting of temporal and resources considerations, influenced the quality of vision statements. Forecasting was improved when people thought about causes, as opposed to goals, and implications, as opposed to facts. The implications of these findings for understanding leader performance in vision formation are discussed.