苏州市人口老龄化分析

基于对苏州市第四次人口普查人口年龄结构的分析,本文认为苏州市已进入人口老年型早期。文中论述了该市人口老龄化的现状、过程及趋势,剖析了过去与未来主导这一进程的不同的人口学因素,特别强调了控制人口增长对这一进程的作用。文中预测现在和今后的二十年内人口老龄化发展较缓,总抚养比较低,正届人口构成上的“黄金时期”,面临着实现经济跃升的契机。其后,人口老龄化将以空前的速度进行。抓住当前的契机也是今后从根本意义上解决好老龄人口问题所必需的。     

A survey of the family planning work done in Dongguan County

The total fertility rate of women of childbearing age of Dongguan County in China has been decreasing gradually from 5.9 during the period following the liberation in 1949 to 2.05 in 1982. In order to encourage young couples to implement the policy of family planning consciously, the people's government of Dongguan county decided in July 1980 that all cadres and employees in county towns who received 1-child certificates would be exempted from house rent of 45 square meters from the time they get their certificates and would be allocated a living space of a 2-children family until their children reached age 16. It also stipulated that every couple could enjoy 1 month's holiday every year for 3 years and during the holiday, their salary, bonus and rate of attendance would not be affected. Because women bear less children today, they are relieved from heavy household chores and become the main working force in collective production. As a result, the development of town-run enterprises was stimulated and the total industrial output value of these enterprises increased. The average monthly salary of each female worker is about 100 yuan. In 1984, the average income per capita of the country rose to 649.2 yuan. The implementation of family planning work has eased the tension in the education field. Previously, because of the large number of school-age children in rural areas, teachers had to teach 2 classes. In the past 4 years, great emphasis was laid on intellectual investment. During this period, 2351 schools were built and several fundraising projects were implemented. Since 1981, more than 200 new running water projects were built, and new public services have been developed, including old age homes.     

组织模块化能否提高制造企业服务创新绩效?——基于组织信息处理理论的视角

数字化时代,制造企业通过组织模块化设计提升服务创新绩效成为服务化转型的重要途径,然而关于组织模块化能否以及如何提升制造企业服务创新绩效的研究还很缺乏.本研究从组织信息处理理论出发,探讨组织模块化发挥作用的内在机制.通过对285家制造企业的问卷调查发现:(1)组织模块化设计有助于提升制造企业服务创新绩效;(2)大数据分析能力在组织模块化和制造企业服务创新绩效之间具有中介作用;(3)组织敏捷性完全中介组织模块化和制造企业服务创新绩效的关系;(4)存在组织模块化-大数据分析能力-组织敏捷性-制造企业服务创新绩效的链式中介效应;(5)环境竞争性正向调节大数据分析能力和制造企业服务创新绩效的关系,表明随着环境竞争程度的提高,大数据分析能力对制造企业服务创新绩效的作用显著增强;(6)环境竞争性对组织敏捷性与制造企业服务创新绩效之间关系的调节作用不显著,然而无论环境竞争程度如何,提高组织敏捷性都能够正向影响制造企业服务创新绩效.本研究深化了组织模块化及其作用和优势的研究,并为数字时代制造企业组织架构创新、服务化转型等提供了借鉴.     

产品众筹中价格歧视策略的优化研究

产品众筹是一种常见的众筹形式,它要求企业为支持者提供创新型产品或服务作为回报。合理的定价策略是产品众筹的关键,本文分别从项目成功率和利润最大化角度研究价格歧视的优化问题。针对产品众筹全有或全无（All-or-Nothing,AoN）的机制下采用价格歧视策略时,价格差值和低价销售定额的最优决策问题。本文首先采用随机模型定义购买概率函数,分析支持者在购买过程中的影响因素;然后从项目支持者效用角度出发,应用两阶段模型讨论价格差值的相关影响因素,研究发现两级价格差值会受到级联效应、项目的特征以及支持者特征的影响。并且从支持者估值类型方向对基础模型进行了扩展,讨论了不同估值类型的支持者在不同价格差值范围内的选择行为;再则从项目的利润最大化角度出发讨论价格差值问题,研究发现价格差值受支持者数量和项目目标值的影响;最后通过计算相对利润函数解出最优低价销售定额的数量。     

Perceived service quality’s effect on patient loyalty through patient attitude within the context of traditional Chinese medicine

Journal of Combinatorial Optimization - Drawing on a sample of 245 patients from a tertiary general hospital in China, we examine the effect of perceived service quality of traditional Chinese...     

Risk prediction of hypertension complications based on the intelligent algorithm optimized Bayesian network

Hypertension and its related complications could be a major threat issue for cardiopathy and stroke. Effective prevention and control can decrease the incidence rate of complications in hypertension. Based on the medical data of 3062 patients with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases from 2017 to 2018 in a grade-A tertiary hospital in Shanghai, the study identified the risk factors of hypertension complications by text mining. On this basis, the K2 algorithm based on the improved particle swarm optimization was proposed to optimize the structure of the Bayesian network (BN) by establishing a multi-population cooperative search mechanism. Then the optimized BN was used to analyze and predict the incidence rate of hypertension complications. Results indicate that the major indicators of accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and AUC have been improved, and the proposed algorithm is superior to the common data mining algorithms such as the back propagation neural network and the decision tree. Through the proposed model and algorithm, the high-risk factors were identified and the occurrence probability of hypertension complications was predicted, which could provide the personalized health management guidance for hypertensive patients to prevent and control hypertension complications.

     

论哈琴反讽美学的元现代性

加拿大当代文艺理论家琳达·哈琴以其独特的反讽理论迥然有别于历史上的反讽理论,也不同于同时期的后现代反讽观。她将反讽同后现代政治结合在一起,并试图改变后现代主义文化的解构性内核,在“后现代之后”的文化语境中重建具有张力和建设性的文化理论。正是在这一点上,哈琴的反讽政治美学同元现代主义理论有了诸多的相通之处,可以共同迎接“后现代之后”文学理论及文化理论发展的重大挑战。     

认罪认罚量刑从宽实效研究——基于故意伤害罪轻罪的数据解读

我国认罪认罚从宽制度设计具有明显的公正优先价值导向。通过构建非线性量刑模型分析177161份故意伤害罪致人轻伤的初审判决书发现,司法实践中表现出明显的“从宽”克制倾向：认罪认罚对轻罪量刑的作用倾向于在“底线”游走,接近量刑情节“坦白”;传统量刑情节仍在习惯性适用,认罪认罚发挥实效的空间不足。在法定主义背景下推动更高层次上公正与效率的统一,可以考虑,一方面建立认罪认罚分级分类制度,适当加大对轻罪的从宽幅度;另一方面扩大认罪认罚从宽幅度的法定空间,在立法上赋予认罪认罚“减轻”情节地位,破解量刑折扣零和博弈的困局。