A Probabilistic Transmission Model to Assess Infection Risk from Mycobacterium Tuberculosis in Commercial Passenger Trains

The objective of this article is to characterize the risk of infection from airborne Mycobacterium tuberculosis bacilli exposure in commercial passenger trains based on a risk‐based probabilistic transmission modeling. We investigated the tuberculosis (TB) infection risks among commercial passengers by inhaled aerosol M. tuberculosis bacilli and quantify the patterns of TB transmission in Taiwan High Speed Rail (THSR). A deterministic Wells‐Riley mathematical model was used to account for the probability of infection risk from M. tuberculosis bacilli by linking the cough‐generated aerosol M. tuberculosis bacilli concentration and particle size distribution. We found that (i) the quantum generation rate of TB was estimated with a lognormal distribution of geometric mean (GM) of 54.29 and geometric standard deviation (GSD) of 3.05 quantum/h at particle size ≤ 5 μm and (ii) the basic reproduction numbers (R₀) were estimated to be 0.69 (0.06–6.79), 2.82 (0.32–20.97), and 2.31 (0.25–17.69) for business, standard, and nonreserved cabins, respectively. The results indicate that commercial passengers taking standard and nonreserved cabins had higher transmission risk than those in business cabins based on conservatism. Our results also reveal that even a brief exposure, as in the bronchoscopy cases, can also result in a transmission when the quantum generation rate is high. This study could contribute to a better understanding of the dynamics of TB transmission in commercial passenger trains by assessing the relationship between TB infectiousness, passenger mobility, and key model parameters such as seat occupancy, ventilation rate, and exposure duration.     

Segregation,informativeness and Lorenz dominance

It is possible to partially order cities according to the informativeness of neighborhoods about their ethnic groups. It is also possible to partially order cities with two ethnic groups according to the Lorenz criterion. We show that a segregation order satisfies four well-established segregation principles if and only if it is consistent with the informativeness criterion. We then use this result to show that for the two-group case, the Lorenz and the informativeness criteria are equivalent.     

Reversing Nuclear Opposition: Evolving Public Acceptance of a Permanent Nuclear Waste Disposal Facility

Nuclear facilities have long been seen as the top of the list of locally unwanted land uses (LULUs), with nuclear waste repositories generating the greatest opposition. Focusing on the case of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in southern New Mexico, we test competing hypotheses concerning the sources of opposition and support for siting the facility, including demographics, proximity, political ideology, and partisanship, and the unfolding policy process over time. This study tracks the changes of risk perception and acceptance of WIPP over a decade, using measures taken from 35 statewide surveys of New Mexico citizens spanning an 11‐year period from fall 1990 to summer 2001. This time span includes periods before and after WIPP became operational. We find that acceptance of WIPP is greater among those whose residences are closest to the WIPP facility. Surprisingly, and contrary to expectations drawn from the broader literature, acceptance is also greater among those who live closest to the nuclear waste transportation route. We also find that ideology, partisanship, government approval, and broader environmental concerns influence support for WIPP acceptance. Finally, the sequence of procedural steps taken toward formal approval of WIPP by government agencies proved to be important to gaining public acceptance, the most significant being the opening of the WIPP facility itself.     

Deciding Where to go: Policies,People and Perceptions Shaping Destination Preferences

There is considerable interest among European politicians and policymakers in the factors influencing the destination preferences of refugees and other migrants. Drawing on in‐depth qualitative interviews with more than 250 Syrians, Eritreans and Nigerians, this article examines the destination preferences of those crossing the Mediterranean in 2015 and the extent to which they were aware of, and/or influenced by, policies intended to control and manage their arrival. Our findings question the extent to which deterrence policies have their intended or assumed effects. Preferred destinations are rarely identified solely, or even primarily, on the basis of migration policies devised by different governments with the explicit aim of reducing the number of arrivals. Rather they reflect the “coming together” of a wide range of factors, including access to protection and family reunification, the availability/accuracy of information, the overall economic environment and social networks. Moreover perceptions of migration policies may be more significant than their content as the implications are often not known or misunderstood.     

ON ENDOGENOUS BUSINESS CYCLES UNDER INCREASING RETURNS TO VARIETY AND SECTOR‐SPECIFIC EXTERNALITY

We examine the theoretical as well as quantitative interrelations between endogenous business cycles, increasing returns to product variety and sector‐specific productive externalities within a two‐sector real business cycle model. In a calibrated version of our benchmark closed‐economy setting, the threshold level of investment externalities needed for equilibrium indeterminacy is found to be monotonically increasing in the degree of market competitiveness. We also study the model's local stability properties (i) when the parameters that govern the level of intermediate‐good producers' market power and the strength of variety effects are disentangled; and (ii) in the context of a small open economy. (JEL E30, E32, O41)     

Does multicultural education affect bachelor of social work students' attitudes? The Taiwanese case of female Southeast Asian marriage immigration

In the past two decades, intra‐Asia cross‐border marriage immigration has become a significant phenomenon. This study collected questionnaire data from Bachelor of Social Work students (n = 1,232) in Taiwan to explore the influences of multicultural education, intergroup contact experience, and demographic characteristics on students' attitudes toward female Southeast Asian marriage migrants. Regression analysis revealed that students' attitudes are improved by direct contact with female Southeast Asian marriage migrants but are not correlated with students' demographic characteristics. Although pre‐college multicultural education improves students' attitudes, college‐level multicultural education adversely affects the attitudes of students who perform poorly in multicultural courses. These findings have valuable implications for social work educators.     

Effects of psychosocial interventions on behavioural problems in youth: A close look at Cochrane and Campbell reviews

Research indicates that a number of psychosocial interventions are effective for reducing behavioural problems in youth. These interventions are now often included on best practice lists aiming to facilitate informed treatment choices among practitioners. However, analyses in neighbouring research areas have highlighted serious shortcomings in how primary studies are analysed and how studies are synthesised in research reviews. This study took a closer look at the evidence of efficacy for psychosocial interventions that aim to reduce behavioural problems in youth, as shown in systematic research reviews by the Cochrane and the Campbell Collaborations (n = 8). The findings suggest a bias towards overemphasising the efficacy of the interventions in several reviews, an over‐confidence in the validity of the findings in some reviews and, overall, a somewhat uncertain evidence base for the efficacy of the interventions. Systematic reviews are crucial for summarising research but more attention to methodological issues may be needed in this area.     

A Collaborative Approach to Infant Research: Promoting Reproducibility,Best Practices,and Theory‐Building

The ideal of scientific progress is that we accumulate measurements and integrate these into theory, but recent discussion of replicability issues has cast doubt on whether psychological research conforms to this model. Developmental research—especially with infant participants—also has discipline‐specific replicability challenges, including small samples and limited measurement methods. Inspired by collaborative replication efforts in cognitive and social psychology, we describe a proposal for assessing and promoting replicability in infancy research: large‐scale, multi‐laboratory replication efforts aiming for a more precise understanding of key developmental phenomena. The ManyBabies project, our instantiation of this proposal, will not only help us estimate how robust and replicable these phenomena are, but also gain new theoretical insights into how they vary across ages, linguistic communities, and measurement methods. This project has the potential for a variety of positive outcomes, including less‐biased estimates of theoretically important effects, estimates of variability that can be used for later study planning, and a series of best‐practices blueprints for future infancy research.