The Use of Simulation to Reduce the Domain of “Black Swans” with Application to Hurricane Impacts to Power Systems

Recently, the concept of black swans has gained increased attention in the fields of risk assessment and risk management. Different types of black swans have been suggested, distinguishing between unknown unknowns (nothing in the past can convincingly point to its occurrence), unknown knowns (known to some, but not to relevant analysts), or known knowns where the probability of occurrence is judged as negligible. Traditional risk assessments have been questioned, as their standard probabilistic methods may not be capable of predicting or even identifying these rare and extreme events, thus creating a source of possible black swans. In this article, we show how a simulation model can be used to identify previously unknown potentially extreme events that if not identified and treated could occur as black swans. We show that by manipulating a verified and validated model used to predict the impacts of hazards on a system of interest, we can identify hazard conditions not previously experienced that could lead to impacts much larger than any previous level of impact. This makes these potential black swan events known and allows risk managers to more fully consider them. We demonstrate this method using a model developed to evaluate the effect of hurricanes on energy systems in the United States; we identify hurricanes with potentially extreme impacts, storms well beyond what the historic record suggests is possible in terms of impacts.     

Organisation of new product development in Asia and Europe: results from Western multinationals R&D sites in Germany,India, and China

From research on Western new product development (NPD) practices a rich body of literature has emerged. However, the impact of country specific and cultural influences has not been examined in this context yet. This study is a first attempt to identify differences in NPD practices between Research and Development (R&D) subsidiaries in Germany, China and India within multinational companies. Data has been generated by qualitative interviews with R&D executives in those countries across multiple cases. The study samples strategic, organizational and operational aspects indicates definite differences in process coordination, rewarding systems, market orientation and the average age of NPD teams. Other aspects like strategic targets, the management involvement, etc. show rather slight differences across the countries. Hence, findings suggest that while some aspects are universally applicable across cultural frontiers, Western companies have to understand different expectations regarding NPD in India and China by adjusting practices accordingly.     

Influential factors and performance of logistics outsourcing practices: an evidence of malaysian companies

Despite the growing trend of logistics outsourcing, there are very limited sources of literature on logistics outsourcing, especially in determining the relationship between factors influencing outsourcing and the extent of logistics outsourcing practices. In this study, we tap into the field of strategic management to help clarify the mechanisms underlying the links between factors influencing, logistics outsourcing practices and outsourcing performance. A model based on the resource based view illustrates the hypothetical connections among these variables. The data gathered from the survey were analysed using SmartPLS software. A response rate of 21 % out of the 486 firms selected was achieved and fixed as the empirical data for this study. The results of this study provide support that superior performance is correlated to the resources of the firm. The analysis shows that lack of human and physical asset capabilities, as well as transaction uncertainty influence the extent of different logistics outsourcing practices. The four logistics outsourcing practices under study were found to have a positive relationship with logistics outsourcing performance, particularly strategic focus. This study shows that although theoretically firms aim at cost reduction by employing a logistics outsourcing strategy but not proven in this study because the financial benefit was only positively contributed by one of the four logistics outsourcing practices under study. Besides that, the results from this study also support that most firms outsource their non-core activities of the logistics practices to respond to the transaction uncertainty that their business experiences.     

Betting Decision Under Break-Streak Pattern: Evidence from Casino Gaming

Cognitive bias is prevalent among gamblers, especially those with gambling problems. Grounded in the heuristics theories, this study contributes to the literature by examining a cognitive bias triggered by the break streak pattern in the casino setting. We postulate that gamblers tend to bet on the latest outcome when there is a break-streak pattern. Moreover, three determinants of the betting decision under break-streak pattern, including the streak length of the alternative outcome, the frequency of the latest outcome, and gender, were identified and examined in this study. A non-participatory observational study was conducted among the Cussec gamblers in a casino in Macao. An analysis of 1229 bets confirms our postulation, particularly when the streak of the alternative outcome is long, the latest outcome is frequent, and the gamblers are females. The findings provide meaningful implications for casino management and public policymakers regarding the minimization of gambling harm.     

Gambling Patterns and Problems of Gamblers on Licensed and Unlicensed Sites in France

In 2010 France enacted a law to regulate supply and consumption of online gambling. Its primary aim was to protect citizens from gambling-related harm. This study aims to assess differences in gambling patterns and related harm between online gamblers who use licensed versus unlicensed sites. Participants (N = 3860) completed a self-administered online survey on gambling practices. Pairwise logistic regressions examined the association between the legal statuses of gambling sites people patronized and demographic variables and gambling types. Multivariate logistic regression models explored associations between gambling patterns and related problems according to the legal status of sites people have gambled on. Overall, 53.7 % of online gamblers report gambling exclusively on licensed sites. Those who bet on regulated activities on unlicensed sites, versus licensed sites, are more likely to be female, younger, less educated, inactive in the labor market and are more likely to perceive their financial situation to be difficult. Gambling on unlicensed sites is associated with more intense gambling patterns and more gambling-related problems compared to licensed sites. Findings demonstrate that gambling activities carried out on state licensed sites are associated with less overall harm to gamblers. Implications of these findings on future policy are discussed and prospective research directions are outlined.     

Effects of Parental Divorce on Teenage Children’s Risk Behaviors: Incidence and Persistence

It is generally difficult to separate the effects of divorce from selection when analyzing the effects of parental divorce on children’s risk behaviors. We used propensity score matching and longitudinal data methods to estimate the effects of parents’ divorce on their children’s binge drinking, alcohol consumption, tobacco use, marijuana use, and hard drug use. The children were between 12 and 18 years old in the first survey and between 18 and 24 years old in the second survey. Our results suggest that parental divorce significantly increased the probability of risk behaviors in their children. Moreover, many of these adverse impacts persisted over time, especially among teenage girls.     

The Association of Alternative Financial Services Usage and Financial Access: Evidence from the National Financial Capability Study

This study examined the association of financial access and alternative financial services (AFS) using a nationally representative sample from the 2012 National Financial Capability Study (N = 25,509). Structural equation modeling was used to examine the relationship between financial access and AFS usage. Ordinary least squares regression was used to estimate the relationship between banked status and the overall AFS usage as a latent variable while controlling for sociodemographic variables, financial education, financial knowledge, and home ownership. Results suggested that being unbanked was positively associated with AFS usage after controlling for other covariates. Financial education and knowledge, age, gender, marital status, education, household income, and homeownership were significantly associated with AFS usage. These findings have implications for public policy and programs that work with the unbanked.     

Financial Education is not Enough: Millennials May Need Financial Capability to Demonstrate Healthier Financial Behaviors

Financial education sans opportunities for hands-on experience and knowledge operationalization may be insufficient for promoting healthy financial behaviors. Financial capability combines financial education with financial inclusion via a savings account, thereby giving an opportunity translate knowledge into practice. This study used data from the 2012 National Financial Capability Study to examine relationships between the financial capability and financial behaviors of United States Millennials (N = 6865). Compared to their financially excluded peers, Millennials who were financially capable were 176 % more likely to afford unexpected expenses, 224 % more likely to save for emergencies, 21 % less likely to use alternative financial services, and 30 % less likely to carry burdensome debt. Interventions that focus solely on financial education or inclusion may be insufficient for facilitating Millennials’ healthy financial behaviors; interventions should instead develop financial capability.     

A Decade of Change: Measuring the Extent,Depth and Severity of Food Insecurity

Rates of food insecurity in the US have been rising since 2000 spiking with the onset of the Great Recession in 2008, and have remained essentially unchanged since then despite improvements in the economy. The present study employed a series of indices adapted from the poverty literature to examine the depth and severity of food insecurity across the decade by race and ethnicity among low-income households with and without children. The most rapid increases in the depth and severity of food insecurity were found among low-income households without children. Non-Hispanic White households with and without children had lower prevalence rates but steeper increases in the depth and severity of food insecurity throughout the decade. Non-Hispanic Black households with and without children were at the most disadvantaged among low-income populations.     

Co-morbidity Between Gambling Problems and Depressive Symptoms: A Longitudinal Perspective of Risk and Protective Factors

In both adolescents and adults, gambling problems and depressive symptoms co-occur and share some common risk factors (e.g., impulsivity and socio-family risk). However, little is known about (1) the developmental course of the co-morbidity of these problems; (2) variables that may moderate the effect of these common risk factors on gambling problems and depressive symptoms. Of specific interest could be individuals’ social relationships with significant others such as parents and friends, because research shows that they moderate the effect of other risk factors on gambling problems and depressive symptoms. The goals of this study were to: (a) identify developmental pathways for gambling problems and depressive symptoms, with a focus on co-morbidity; (b) assess the moderating effect of relationship quality with parents and friends on the link between common risk factors and the trajectories of gambling problems and depressive symptoms. Study participants were 878 males. Predictors were assessed during childhood and adolescence and gambling problems and depressive symptoms were assessed in late adolescence and young adulthood. Latent class analysis revealed four distinct joint trajectories of gambling problems and depressive symptoms. Subsequent logistic regression revealed that impulsivity predicted membership in all pathogenic trajectories, and quality of the relationship with parents predicted membership in depressogenic trajectories. In addition, we found that the membership in the comorbid trajectory can be predicted by an interaction between friendship quality and socio-family risk.