Subjective Probabilities on Subjectively Unambiguous Events

This paper suggests a behavioral definition of (subjective) ambiguity in an abstract setting where objects of choice are Savage‐style acts. Then axioms are described that deliver probabilistic sophistication of preference on the set of unambiguous acts. In particular, both the domain and the values of the decision‐maker's probability measure are derived from preference. It is argued that the noted result also provides a decision‐theoretic foundation for the Knightian distinction between risk and ambiguity.     

Toward an emergent Asian behavioural model of perceived managerial and leadership effectiveness: a cross-nation comparative analysis of effective and ineffective managerial behaviour of private sector managers in India and South Korea

ABSTRACT

This Type 4 (emic-and-etic) indigenous cross-case/cross-nation comparative study compares the results of two Type 3 (emic-as-emic) indigenous replication studies of effective and ineffective managerial behaviour carried out within private companies in India and South Korea respectively. The method used was ‘realist qualitative content analysis’ involving inductive open and axial coding. Of the Indian findings 100% were found to be convergent in meaning with 94.43% of the equivalent South Korean findings. This has led to the identification of a two-factor emergent Asian behavioural model of perceived managerial and leadership effectiveness comprised of 16 positive (effective) and 6 negative (ineffective) generic behavioural criteria. These criteria could be used in both countries to critically review and improve extant, or develop new, competency-based management/leadership development programmes. The research findings lend no support to claims that national culture has a major impact on managerial and leadership practices, styles, and effectiveness.     

Turning plans into action— A case study

This article focuses attention on the shorter term and on improving financial performance. The author puts forward familiar arguments that planning and action should be a continuous process involving line management and the major staff functions, the whole process directed by the Chief Executive.

The effectiveness of a Corporate Planning system is very much influenced by the extent to which it is seen to improve short term results and medium term potential for the business as a whole. The Corporate Plan should be conceived and used as a working document. The article illustrates how Simon Engineering set about meeting these criteria.     

Making planning more effective

The authors have been carrying out a comparative study of strategic planning in a set of ten, diverse organizations from both public and private sectors. The research focused on two issues: (1) what constitutes effective planning? and (2) what is the impact of participation on that effectiveness. This paper describes those elements of the results of the research which have greatest relevance to practising planners and managers.     

Screening new products for potential winners

New product success is predictable. This paper highlights the findings of an extensive study into new product success and failure, and pinpoints what separates winners from losers. The key success factors are: product superiority—delivering unique benefits to customers, upfront homework—before development gets underway, sharp and early product definition, a strong market orientation with constant customer contact and input, and quality of execution of key activities in new product process. Sadly many firms and new product efforts are lacking on these success factors. This points to the need for a more disciplined approach to product development. One solution proposed is the implementation of a stage-gate or formal new product process—a blueprint for the process from idea to launch. A generic stage-gate is outlined in the article. The experiences of managers in firms which have implemented such processes are investigated, and the performance results are positive: improved teamwork, less recycle, higher success rates and shorter cycle times.     

Study tour examines health care systems in Germany, Holland--Part II: The German system

In October 1992, the American College of Physician Executives sponsored a study tour to Berlin, Germany, and Amsterdam, Holland. Meetings were held with government officials, third-party payers, and providers, and on-site visits were made at hospitals, clinics, and academic centers. The purpose was to study the health care delivery system in those countries and to share some insights with the countries' hosts on the U.S. system. In a series of reports that began in the July issue of the journal, 5 of the 10 study tour participants describe their impressions of the tour and of the health care systems in the countries that were visited. In the first report, the health care delivery systems of the United States, Germany, and Holland were compared. In this report, the German system is analyzed in greater detail.     

On estimating census undercount in small areas

"Net undercount rates in the U.S. decennial census have been steadily declining over the last several censuses. Differential undercounts among race groups and geographic areas, however, appear to persist. In the following, we examine and compare several methodologies for providing small area estimates of census coverage by constructing artificial populations. Measures of performance are also introduced to assess the various small area estimates. Synthetic estimation in combination with regression modelling provide the best results over the methods considered. Sampling error effects are also simulated. The results form the basis for determining coverage evaluation survey small area estimates of the 1900 decennial census."     

Planning for technological innovation: Part II—investment in technological change in three major industries

In an article in the December 1977 issue the author described an analytical method to determine the reaction of British industry to the oil crisis. The purpose of this paper is to carry forward the discussion by examining and comparing circumstances in three British industries between 1963 and 1975.The paper aims first, to show how and why the cost structures of these three industries differ; second, to examine changes forced upon companies by inflation of earnings, statutory control of prices and the oil crisis; and finally to assess how far these congruent economic forces have impinged on tangible and intangible investment.The data used for this study were drawn from British and Canadian official statistics but, as described in Part 1, a new analytical technique was devised to give due weight to the full range of investment expenditure.     

Energy and the economy— A reply to Smil and Kuz

In the June 1976 edition of this journal Smil and Kuz discussed the case for saying that there are quite firm relationships between energy consumption and GDP. They argued broadly that there was no general relationship, but, instead, the individual countries are locked into individual patterns of energy consumption. The proponents of the ‘there is a relationship’ school of thought include the author of this reply who is employed in the Economics and Programmes Branch of the U.K. Atomic Energy Authority.