Estimating turnover,movements and capture parameters of resting passerines in standardized capture-recapture studies

Jolly-Seber models A, B, D and 2 were used to investigate capture-recapture data. The standard Jolly-Seber model A (time-dependent survival phi and capture probability p ) fits capture-recapture data of migrating passerines. Captures from a long-term mist-netting study (Mettnau Peninsula, SW Germany) at a stop-over site were used to estimate stop-over length from survival rate between days and capture probability. For some data, model 2 could be used, indicating a termporary reduction in 'survival' rate. Application of models B and D gave poor results. The total number of birds stopping over, i.e. population size, was estimated from captures of 1-5 line transects of nets in the spatial trapping design. Behaviour, movements within the stop-over site, catchability and ecophysiological covariables such as moult, fat deposition and climatic parameters are likely to have strong influence on the estimation of capture parameters.     

Pensions as a portfolio problem: fixed contribution rates vs. fixed replacement rates reconsidered

Pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension schemes can contribute to better intergenerational risk-sharing and diversification. However, different variants of PAYG schemes entail different properties in these respects. In a stochastic 2-OLG model we compare PAYG schemes with fixed contribution rates and such with fixed replacement rates. The literature has shown that the former are preferable to the later from an ex ante perspective. We derive the opposite result for the ex post perspective. Here, schemes with fixed replacement rates are unambiguously preferable: they enhance intergenerational risk-sharing, lead to a higher savings and higher utility levels. We further show that, from an ex ante (veil-of-ignorance), perspective both schemes are non-comparable if the effect that fixed-replacement schemes serve as an insurance device for old-age income is properly accounted for. Received: 7 December 2000/Accepted: 17 May 2001     

Perzeption, Interaktion und die Ökologie der Gesellschaft — eine systemtheoretische Suche nach den Sinnen

This paper is an attempt to analyze the senses from a sociological perspective and within the context of Niklas Luhmann’s reflexive theory of social systems. A functional specification of the persceptive senses for the constitution and structuring of social systems will be achieved by means of the basic distinctions of system/environment, consciousness/communication, and interaction/society. Essentially, four levels can be distinguished with regard to perception, consciousness, and communication: 1) reflexive sensory perception of perceptions, 2) sensory perception of communication, 3) sensory perception due to communication, 4) communication based on purposefully initiated perception. As a result, the senses can be understood, on the one hand, as an infrastructural resource of communication and an ecological condition of society; on the other hand, they are themselves a binding, immanent structural principle of the social, or, more precisely, of interactions.     

Using quality of life information to set priorities in health policy

Health care has as primary objectives extending life expectancy and improving quality of life in years prior to death. This paper offers a General Health Policy Model as a method for quantifying these outcomes. The model adjusts life expectancy for diminished quality of life, which is measured using a standardized instrument known as the Quality of Well-being (QWB) scale. The Well-year or Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) results from these analyses and serves as a single quantitative expression of health benefit. QALY units integrate side effects and benefits of treatment by combining into a single number, mortality, morbidity, and duration of each health state. Examples show the application of the model relevant to a variety of medical and public health problems, including diabetes, arthritis, AIDS, neonatal circumcision, and tobacco tax. It is suggested that the General Health Policy Model has advantages for guiding both individual and public health decisions.     

Gambling among lottery winners: Before and after the big score

The proliferation of state lotteries raises the possibility of increasing pathological gambling because large segments of the population are purchasing tickets. This study, based on a 50% response rate of million dollar winners in Ohio in 1986, indicates lottery winners spend relatively small amounts of money on tickets, did not appreciably increase the amount of money they spent on tickets after winning, and rarely engaged in other forms of gambling before or after they won. These data do not support the assumption that lotteries significantly increase the amount of compulsive gambling in our society, but the subject deserves further exploration.     

Effectiveness, accountability, and efficiency

Management of health care is compromised by its singular reliance on billing information--i.e., a claims trail tells little of what providers think. It relates to neither prevention of disease nor reduction of unnecessary health care costs. Billing information is not the substrate to be used in the pursuit of appropriateness, effectiveness, and value. To improve medical management of health care, a protected, but accessible clinical database is needed.