Anonymity in large societies

In a social choice model with an infinite number of agents, there may occur “equal size” coalitions that a preference aggregation rule should treat in the same manner. We introduce an axiom of equal treatment with respect to a measure of coalition size and explore its interaction with common axioms of social choice. We show that, provided the measure space is sufficiently rich in coalitions of the same measure, the new axiom is the natural extension of the concept of anonymity, and in particular plays a similar role in the characterization of preference aggregation rules.     

Origin dependence, secondary migration, and the indirect estimation of migration flows from population stocks

US census data from 1940 to 2000 are used in this paper to illustrate the importance of origin dependence on migration streams and to examine the effects of such dependence on patterns of interregional migration. These findings are then used to make possible the indirect estimation of migration flows. A method is introduced that uses historical regularities found in the ratios of secondary to primary migration and two consecutive birthplace-specific counts of multiregional population stocks. The results demonstrate how patterns of primary and secondary migration act to shape population redistribution processes.     

LETTER GRADING GOVERNMENT EFFICIENCY

We mailed letters to non‐existent business addresses in 159 countries (10 per country), and measured whether they come back to the return address in the United States and how long it takes. About 60% of the letters were returned, taking over six months, on average. The results provide new objective indicators of government efficiency across countries, based on a simple and universal service, and allow us to shed light on its determinants. The evidence suggests that both technology and management quality influence government efficiency, just as they do that of the private sector.     

Firms,Destinations, and Aggregate Fluctuations

This paper uses a data base covering the universe of French firms for the period 1990–2007 to provide a forensic account of the role of individual firms in generating aggregate fluctuations. We set up a simple multisector model of heterogeneous firms selling to multiple markets to motivate a theoretically founded decomposition of firms' annual sales growth rate into different components. We find that the firm‐specific component contributes substantially to aggregate sales volatility, mattering about as much as the components capturing shocks that are common across firms within a sector or country. We then decompose the firm‐specific component to provide evidence on two mechanisms that generate aggregate fluctuations from microeconomic shocks highlighted in the recent literature: (i) when the firm size distribution is fat‐tailed, idiosyncratic shocks to large firms directly contribute to aggregate fluctuations, and (ii) aggregate fluctuations can arise from idiosyncratic shocks due to input–output linkages across the economy. Firm linkages are approximately three times as important as the direct effect of firm shocks in driving aggregate fluctuations.     

A Semiparametric Regression Method for Interval-Censored Data

In many medical studies, event times are recorded in an interval-censored (IC) format. For example, in numerous cancer trials, time to disease relapse is only known to have occurred between two consecutive clinic visits. Many existing modeling methods in the IC context are computationally intensive and usually require numerous assumptions that could be unrealistic or difficult to verify in practice. We propose a flexible and computationally efficient modeling strategy based on jackknife pseudo-observations (POs). The POs obtained based on nonparametric estimators of the survival function are employed as outcomes in an equivalent, yet simpler regression model that produces consistent covariate effect estimates. Hence, instead of operating in the IC context, the problem is translated into the realm of generalized linear models, where numerous options are available. Outcome transformations via appropriate link functions lead to familiar modeling contexts such as the proportional hazards and proportional odds. Moreover, the methods developed are not limited to these settings and have broader applicability. Simulations studies show that the proposed methods produce virtually unbiased covariate effect estimates, even for moderate sample sizes. An example from the International Breast Cancer Study Group (IBCSG) Trial VI further illustrates the practical advantages of this new approach.     

Fleet Replacement,Technology Choice,and the Option to Breach a Leasing Contract

We analyze the option to breach a leasing contract when replacing a fleet of ICVs (internal combustion engine vehicles) and EVs (electric vehicles) subject to cost uncertainty. We derive the optimal policy for technology choice and breaching ICV contracts. The decision to breach is shown to offer both cost savings resulting from reduced ICV operating costs and preemptive acquisition, but incurs additional costs arising from the need to compensate for breached vehicles and in the form of opportunity costs. We also demonstrate that the effects of breaching a leasing contract have a ripple effect across the decision horizon, thus amplifying the impact of a single breach. A numerical study based on data from La Poste, the French postal service, shows that breaching a leasing contract in this context offers measurable cost benefits.     

Quantity Competition When Most Favored Customers are Strategic

Legal studies usually treat a policy of a manufacturer or retailer as socially harmful if it reduces product output and increases the price. We consider a two‐period model where the first‐period price is fixed and resellers endogenously decide to use meet‐the‐competition clause with a most‐favored‐customer clause (MFC) to counteract strategic customer behavior. As a result of MFC, the second‐period (reduced) price increases and resellers’ inventories decrease. However, customer surplus may increase and aggregate welfare increases in the majority of market situations. MFC can mitigate the losses in welfare and resellers’ profits due to strategic customers. Moreover, under reseller competition, MFC may even lead to higher levels of these values than with myopic customers, that is, to gain from increased strategic behavior. With growing competition, benefits or losses from MFC can be higher than losses from strategic customer behavior.     

Efficient Stratified Testing Procedure for a False Discovery Rate

The false discovery rate (FDR) has become a popular error measure in the large-scale simultaneous testing. When data are collected from heterogenous sources and form grouped hypotheses testing, it may be beneficial to use the distinct feature of groups to conduct the multiple hypotheses testing. We propose a stratified testing procedure that uses different FDR levels according to the stratification features based on p-values. Our proposed method is easy to implement in practice. Simulations studies show that the proposed method produces more efficient testing results. The stratified testing procedure minimizes the overall false negative rate (FNR) level, while controlling the overall FDR. An example from a type II diabetes mice study further illustrates the practical advantages of this new approach.     

Russia 2020

The authors describe four idealized alternative scenarios for Russia in 2020—Kremlin Gambit, Fortress Russia, Russian Mosaic, and New Dream—and analyze the views of focus-group participants concerning their probability and desirability. They find that these views are influenced only marginally by electoral preferences.