Politicized expertise – an analysis of the political dimensions of consultants' policy recommendations to developing countries with a case study of McKinsey's advice on REDD+ policies

This article argues that expertise must be seen as politicized. Most of the existing research on the role of experts in policy-making neglects that there are many political factors which influence what and whose expertise is sought and used. This article looks at the role consultants play in shaping public policy in developing countries. Applying concepts from different disciplines a theoretical framework is developed to examine in what ways such politicized expertise undermines notions of neutrality and legitimacy. This framework is then applied to a case study looking at the advice that McKinsey & Company has given developing countries on their deforestation and Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation policies.     

Judgmental overconfidence: Three measures, one bias?

Overconfidence is used to explain various instances of detrimental decision making. In behavioral economic and finance models, it is usually captured by misperceiving the reliability of signals and results in overweighting private information. Empirical tests of these models often fail to find evidence for the predicted effects of overconfidence. These studies assume, however, that a specific type of overconfidence, i.e. “miscalibration,” captures the underlying trait. We challenge this assumption and borrow the psychological methodology of single-cue probability learning to obtain a direct measure for misperceiving signal reliability. Our findings indicate that the perception of signal precision and measures of miscalibration are unrelated. We thus conclude that in order to test the theoretical predictions of the overconfidence literature in economics and finance, one cannot rely on the well-established miscalibration bias.     

The Effects of Ethnic Minority Adolescents' Ethnic Self‐Identification on Friendship Selection

This study investigated the effects of ethnic minority adolescents' ethnic self‐identification (host country, dual, or heritage country) on friendship choices among ethnic majority and minority peers. Hypotheses were derived from similarity–attraction and social identity theory and tested using longitudinal social network data from 1,004 middle school students (five schools) in Germany. Results showed that ethnic minority adolescents' ethnic self‐identification affected friendship selection beyond ethnic homophily. While host country and dual identification was beneficial with respect to friendships with both ethnic majority and minority peers, heritage country identification was detrimental to relations with both of them.     

Manager-Derailment

The topic of this article in the journal “Gruppe. Interaktion. Organisation (GIO)”, failure of managers, used to be a taboo issue that currently receives more and more attention in the daily press as well as in research. In times of globalization and the resulting world-wide competition, organizations bear the responsibility of counteracting failures of their top managers as they encompass not only financial damage for the company but also personal consequences for the respective individual. The derailment of a manager describes the sudden break-down of a so far successful executive. But how does a derailment occur and are there possibilities to prevent it? The following contribution reports empirical evidence for both risk and resilience factors and gives advice for personnel selection and development.     

„Da gibt es Sachen,die macht man einfach nicht“ – Deutungsmuster von Banken im Kontext von Nachhaltigkeit und Krise

Banks in Germany are experiencing a profound legitimacy crisis. In the wake of financial and economic crises, failures, and bailouts, as well as new oversight and stricter regulations, banks have lost the reputation and trust they once had. The present article uses an analysis of interpretative patterns to examine how banks seek to legitimize themselves in times of crisis, with reference to sustainability as a guiding principle of society. Following the concept of social legitimacy by new institutionalism in sociology, and based on discursive interviews with 18 representatives of German banks, we reconstructed three interpretative patterns: a) the differentiation from “bad” banks, which abandons profit-maximizing business models and promotes the moral superiority of sustainable banking, b) responsibility for society, which promotes the role and responsibility of banks as socially relevant actors that spur social change, and c) “right” return, whereby banks seek an appropriate relationship between their value orientation and a return on investments. Although a return on investment is economically necessary and confers legitimacy, it may not be understood as an end in itself. Banks discredited during the crisis can refocus on a banking model which promises social legitimacy by referring to sustainability.     

Research report: a software solution for rapid policy assessment with reimbursed SMS and mobile cash

In this report, we introduce a system for running reimbursed surveys via text messages and mobile cash. The key advantage of this approach is the ability to conduct rapid surveys at an extremely low cost. After reviewing existing literature, we describe an automated system for conducting such surveys and demonstrate its merits in a proof-of-principle application in India. We obtain substantive insights on the effectiveness of a policy trial that are in line with expert assessments. This application suggests that our approach can be applied to a wide range of problems including impact assessment for policy or developmental aid, and monitoring of public sentiment, and possibly monitoring of conflict dynamics.     

Target setting for indirect processes: a new hybrid method for the continuous improvement management of indirect processes

Indirect processes are increasingly contributing to the total cost of production in highly competitive and technology-intensive industries. Unfortunately, they are less assessable than direct processes due to the complex organisational management structure. Therefore, companies seeking to make improvements in indirect areas need decision support methods to indicate which indirect process needs to be improved and to what extent. To facilitate this task, the target setting for indirect processes (TSIP) method has been developed following the constructive research approach. TSIP is a combination of process modelling, the analytic network process, activity-based management from managerial accounting research and the value control chart from target costing research in a kaizen budgeting framework. This new hybrid method is developed and validated in cooperation with a global first-tier automotive supplier.     

A simultaneous equation model of economic development and income inequality

The paper extends existing work on inequality and economic development by estimating a cross-country structural model that identifies bi-directional relationships between income inequality and other indicators of social and economic development. Overall, lower inequality is associated with improvements in other development indicators, but this is the result of several complex interactions. The most striking feature of the structural model is the insight it provides into the reasons behind the negative ‘Africa dummy’ in previous cross-country growth studies.     

Does Family Structure Matter? A Comparison of Adoptive,Two‐Parent Biological,Single‐Mother,Stepfather, and Stepmother Households

Using data from the National Survey of Families and Households, we compared quality of family relationships and well‐being across five different family structures with a particular focus on adoptive households. Four theoretical perspectives, each emphasizing the importance of different factors in determining relationship quality and well‐being, guided this work and led us to compare adoptive families with families that include two biological parents, single mothers, stepfathers, and stepmothers. We found the most support for the perspective stressing the importance of family processes that occur in all types of families, rather than family structure. Specifically, there were few family structure differences based on fathers' and children's reports, and structure differences in mothers' reports were no longer significant after controlling for disagreements between family members. The implications of these results for adoption theory and policies are discussed.     

Shape-constrained Gaussian process regression for surface reconstruction and multimodal,non-rigid image registration

We present a new statistical framework for landmark ?>curve-based image registration and surface reconstruction. The proposed method first elastically aligns geometric features (continuous, parameterized curves) to compute local deformations, and then uses a Gaussian random field model to estimate the full deformation vector field as a spatial stochastic process on the entire surface or image domain. The statistical estimation is performed using two different methods: maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference via Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. The resulting deformations accurately match corresponding curve regions while also being sufficiently smooth over the entire domain. We present several qualitative and quantitative evaluations of the proposed method on both synthetic and real data. We apply our approach to two different tasks on real data: (1) multimodal medical image registration, and (2) anatomical and pottery surface reconstruction.