Terrorism Risk Assessment,Recollection Bias,and Public Support for Counterterrorism Policy and Spending

Recollection bias (RB) refers to the phenomenon whereby after an adverse event people report that their risk assessment about a similar future event is presently no higher than their recollection of their pre‐event risk assessment. While previous research has outlined this theoretical construct and generated important empirical findings, there were some limitations. We design and employ a new national representative survey to address these limitations in this study. We examine the existence and persistence of RB among the general public in the context of a number of domestic and international terrorist attacks. We further examine the socioeconomic and political base of RB and the influences of RB on a wide range of citizens’ counterterrorism policy preferences. Our data analyses reveal strong evidence showing the occurrence of RB and its persistence across various forms of terrorism risk. With regard to the socioeconomic and political base, we find that females, older people, political conservatives, and Republicans are less likely to be subject to RB. For the effects of RB on public counterterrorism policy preferences, our analyses demonstrate that this bias significantly dampens public support for a wide range of preventive policy measures and government anti‐terrorism spending. Overall, our study, based on a national representative sample and an extended survey design, provides robust evidence of RB in terrorism risk assessment, and adds further evidence to support the idea that RB is likely a generalizable phenomenon. Implications and suggestions for future research are discussed in the conclusion.     

Linkages between internal and international migration: the Ilocos Norte experience

This paper reviews the arguments concerning whether internal and international migration can or should be incorporated in the same migration theories or models and examines the ways in which the 2 processes are linked in a variety of contexts. To provide some illustrative empirical results, reference is made to the Philippine Migration Study (PMS), a research project which incorporates both internal and international migration in its research design. The study examined migration from Ilocos Norte to the principal internal destination, Manila, and the principal international destination, Honolulu. Ilocos Norte is a largely rural, resource poor province with a long history of outmigration that is attributable primarily to population pressure in the region. Due to the fact that 1 of the principal migration streams from the Ilocos is within the Philippines and the other is outside the country, the Ilocos presents an ideal situation for a comparative analysis of internal and international migration. The study consists of 7 different surveys conducted in Ilocos Norte, Manila, and Honolulu between 1980-83. More than 5000 interviews were conducted in the 3 locations. The initial baseline survey in Ilocos Norte was conducted in 1980. After 2-1/2 years, the initial 830 households in the Ilocos Baseline Survey were recontacted to determine the migration behavior of the household members since the 1st survey. Those who had moved to either Manila or Hawaii during this period were traced to the destination and interviewed there. The PMS uses a single integrated model (the value-expectancy or VE framework) to explore migration decision making for both internal and external migration. Despite the complexity of the VE questions, respondents were able to distinguish different locations as being relatively good places or bad places to realize their different goals. Manila was not highly regarded by Ilocanos in most respects, and there was not a single value on which Manila ranked higher than both alternative locations. Relative to the other values, however, Manila is seen as being a good place for educational opportunities and entertainment. Hawaii rated very well on items having to do with wealth and status, but was regarded as a relatively poor place to satisfy one's desire for affiliation. Comfort, affiliation, and morality were viewed as being most easily achieved in the present barangay. Based upon the value-expectancy framework, the findings of the Philippine Migration Study confirm that a global model of migration decision making is feasible and that other important concepts in migration equally apply well in the case of both internal and international population movements.     

Stochastic trends in the long-run behavior of velocity: A new test of the institutional hypothesis

The institutional approach to the long-run behavior of velocity has been implemented through testing whether proxy variables for the process of monetization, the spread of commercial banking, the level of financial sophistication, and economic stability are related to movements in velocity. In this paper I argue that a valid test of this type requires that a distinction is made between trends and temporary fluctuations in velocity and the institutional proxies. When this distinction is taken into account, it appears that the long-run behavior of velocity is less easily explained by the institutional variables than previous tests suggested.     

Everywhere,planners are in pain

In this provocative article the author suggests that planners should now leave the field of rational decision-making to high technology machines and should themselves concentrate on the non-rational judgmental aspects of human activity. Management is not and never can be a science, and with the growing awareness among businessmen and academics that over-rationality is eventually harmful, planners should be adding qualitative analysis and interpretation to their role and becoming more aware of the complexities of the non-rational aspects of managerial planning.     

Relative squared error prediction in the generalized linear regression model

In linear regression models, predictors based on least squares or on generalized least squares estimators are usually applied which, however, fail in case of multicollinearity. As an alternative biased estimators like ridge estimators, Kuks-Olman estimators, Bayes or minimax estimators are sometimes suggested. In our analysis the relative instead of the generally used absolute squared error enters the objective function. An explicit minimax solution is derived which, in an important special case, can be viewed as a predictor based on a Kuks-Olman estimator.     

A taxonomic view of illegal transfer of technologies: A case study

Illegal transfer of technology (ITT) is one of the major policy formulation, industrial management, and law enforcement issues of this decade. It includes industrial espionage, the piracy of; software, logos, and hardware designs and it overlaps with issues of terrorism and those involving weapons of mass destruction. It is of concern at corporate, national, and world-body levels. Technology herein is defined broadly to include intellectual property. ITT involves various kinds of players, takes on various modalities and is done for various motivations. The ITT literature is very disjoint and disparate. It transcends several academic disciplines, professions and professional communities. To remedy such fractionation this paper offers a taxonomy defining the field in its entirety while delineating all of its facets in a manner that is parsimonious yet discriminating. A number of actionable uses for the taxonomy are identified as are its potential users.