Invariance principles for jackknifing U-statistics for finite population sampling and some applications

For simple random sampling (without replacement) from a finite population, suitable stochastic processes are constructed from the entire sequence of jackknife estimators based on smooth functions of U-statistics and these are approximated (in distributions) by some Brownian bridge processes. Strong convergence of the Tukey estimator of the variance of a jackknife U-statistic has been interpreted suitably and established. Some applications of these results in sequential analysis relating to finite population sampling are also considered.     

A test for bivariate two sample location problem

A consistent test for difference in locations between two bivariate populations is proposed, The test is similar as the Mann-Whitney test and depends on the exceedances of slopes of the two samples where slope for each sample observation is computed by taking the ratios of the observed values. In terms of the slopes, it reduces to a univariate problem, The power of the test has been compared with those of various existing tests by simulation. The proposed test statistic is compared with Mardia's(1967) test statistics, Peters-Randies(1991) test statistic, Wilcoxon's rank sum test. statistic and Hotelling' T² test statistic using Monte Carlo technique. It performs better than other statistics compared for small differences in locations between two populations when underlying population is population 7(light tailed population) and sample size 15 and 18 respectively. When underlying population is population 6(heavy tailed population) and sample sizes are 15 and 18 it performas better than other statistic compared except Wilcoxon's rank sum test statistics for small differences in location between two populations. It performs better than Mardia's(1967) test statistic for large differences in location between two population when underlying population is bivariate normal mixture with probability p=0.5, population 6, Pearson type II population and Pearson type VII population for sample size 15 and 18 .Under bivariate normal population it performs as good as Mardia' (1967) test statistic for small differences in locations between two populations and sample sizes 15 and 18. For sample sizes 25 and 28 respectively it performs better than Mardia's (1967) test statistic when underlying population is population 6, Pearson type II population and Pearson type VII population     

Estimation and prediction for Chen distribution with bathtub shape under progressive censoring

We consider estimation of the unknown parameters of Chen distribution [Chen Z. A new two-parameter lifetime distribution with bathtub shape or increasing failure rate function. Statist Probab Lett. 2000;49:155–161] with bathtub shape using progressive-censored samples. We obtain maximum likelihood estimates by making use of an expectation–maximization algorithm. Different Bayes estimates are derived under squared error and balanced squared error loss functions. It is observed that the associated posterior distribution appears in an intractable form. So we have used an approximation method to compute these estimates. A Metropolis–Hasting algorithm is also proposed and some more approximate Bayes estimates are obtained. Asymptotic confidence interval is constructed using observed Fisher information matrix. Bootstrap intervals are proposed as well. Sample generated from MH algorithm are further used in the construction of HPD intervals. Finally, we have obtained prediction intervals and estimates for future observations in one- and two-sample situations. A numerical study is conducted to compare the performance of proposed methods using simulations. Finally, we analyse real data sets for illustration purposes.     

A bivariate signed rank test for two sample location problem

An affine-invariant signed rank test for the difference in location between two symmetric populations is proposed. The proposed test statistic is compared with Hotelling's T2 test statistic, Mardia's(1967)test statistic, Peters-Randles(1991) test statistic and Wilcoxon's rank sum test statistic using a Monte Carlo Study. It performs better than Mardia's test statistic under almost all populations considered. Under the bivariate normal distribution, it performs better than other test statistics compared for small differences in location between two populations except Hotelling's T2. It performs better than all statistics, including Hotelling's T , for sample size 15 when samples are drawn from Pearson type.     

Forecasting models for developing control scheme to improve furnace run length

In petrochemical industries, the gaseous feedstock like ethane and propane are cracked in furnaces to produce ethylene and propylene as main products and the inputs for the other plant in the downstream. A problem of low furnace run length (FRL) increases furnace decoking and reduces productivity along with the problem of reducing life of the coil. Coil pressure ratio (CPR) and tube metal temperature (TMT) are the two most important performance measures for the FRL to decide upon the need for furnace decoking. This article, therefore, makes an attempt to develop the prediction models for CPR and TMT based on the critical process parameters, which would lead to take the necessary control measures along with a prior indication for decoking. Regression-based time series and double exponential smoothing techniques are used to build up the models. The effective operating ranges of the critical process parameters are found using a simulation-based approach. The models are expected to be the guiding principles eventually to increase the average run length of furnace.     

A two-stage unrelated randomized response model for estimating a rare sensitive attribute in probability proportional to size sampling using Poisson distribution

This paper describes the estimating procedures of mean number of entities that possess a rare sensitive attribute using the Mangat (1992) randomized device, when the population consists of some clusters and the population is again stratified with some clusters in each stratum. Unbiased estimation procedures for the mean number of individuals have been discussed and their properties are described when the parameter of a rare unrelated attribute is assumed to be known and unknown. An empirical study is carried out to show the dominance of the proposed estimator over Lee et al. (2013) estimator.     

The Slippage Problem for the Circular Normal Distribution

The slippage problem occurs when an unspecified observation in a given random sample is from a distribution other than that for all the remaining observations. This paper studies the problem in terms of the 'slip' in the mean direction of a circular normal distribution. The slippage problem is first treated as a multiple decision problem with a prior which is invariant under the permutations of the hypotheses. The probabilities of accepting the various hypotheses for the Bayes rule with respect to this prior are explicitly obtained. The likelihood ratio tests for this slippage problem, for the cases when the mean directions are both known and unknown, are shown to be easily computable. The tests are illustrated through two well-known datasets. The performances of a range of tests are compared using extensive simulation.     

Leader–follower equilibria to examine investment decisions in grid resilience-enhancing measures

Large-area, long-duration power outages are increasingly common in the United States, and cost the economy billions of dollars each year. Building a strategy to enhance grid resilience requires an understanding of the optimal mix of preventive and corrective actions, the inefficiencies that arise when self-interested parties make resilience investment decisions, and the conditions under which regulators may facilitate the realization of efficient market outcomes. We develop a bi-level model to examine the mix of preventive and corrective measures that enhances grid resilience to a severe storm. The model represents a Stackelberg game between a regulated utility (leader) that may harden distribution feeders before a long-duration outage and/or deploy restoration crews after the disruption, and utility customers with varying preferences for reliable power (followers) who may invest in backup generators. We show that the regulator's denial of cost recovery for the utility's preventive expenditures, coupled with the misalignment between private objectives and social welfare maximization, yields significant inefficiencies in the resilience investment mix. Allowing cost recovery for a higher share of the utility's capital expenditures in preventive measures, extending the time horizon associated with damage cost recovery, and adopting a storm restoration compensation mechanism shift the realized market outcome toward the efficient solution. If about one-fifth of preventive resilience investments is approved by regulators, requiring utilities to pay a compensation of $365 per customer for a 3-day outage (about seven times the level of compensation currently offered by US utilities) provides significant incentives toward more efficient preventive resilience investments.     

Effect of detection methods on risk estimates of exposure to biosolids-associated human enteric viruses

This study illustrates the effect of virus detection methods on estimates of risks of infection of biosolids-associated viruses for occupational workers and residential population during a hypothetical exposure of biosolids. Five gastroenteritis-associated human enteric viruses--enteroviruses (echovirus-12, enteroviruse types 68-71), adenoviruses, rotaviruses, and noroviruses genotype--I-were considered to represent human enteric viruses for risk estimation purposes. Ingested viral doses were calculated using literature-reported total infectious virus concentrations (based on BGM and A549 cell lines) and genome copies (GCs) in Michigan dewatered and class B biosolids. Cell-line-based infectivity parameters (i.e., ratio of total infectious virus concentration to GCs) were developed for different viruses in biosolids to use GCs for calculating ingested viral dose, addressing the issue of integration of molecular methods with biosolids-based virus risk assessment. Use of virus concentrations from molecular methods (with and without using cell-line-based infectivity parameter) resulted in higher risk estimates than culture methods, indicating the effect of the virus detection method on risk estimates. Further, use of virus concentrations from A549 cell lines resulted in higher risk estimates compared to those from BGM cell lines, suggesting the need for a proper choice of cell lines in determining infectious viral dose. The Monte Carlo uncertainty analyses of estimates for risk of infection due to enteroviruses showed that enteroviruses concentration was the most important parameter influencing risk estimates, indicating the need for reducing associated uncertainty. More work is required to develop cell-line-based infectivity parameters for different virus concentration levels and sample matrix types using a cut-off-based approach.