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回想你上次面临新的领导机遇时,出现了什么情况？不管你是受命领导团队、部门还是整个企业,你很可能通过谈判争取该职位的薪水和待遇,比如：头衔、假期及奖金,但你是否争取过在该职位上取得成功的条件呢?     

Leveraging risk assessment for foodborne outbreak investigations: The Quantitative Risk Assessment-Epidemic Curve Prediction Model

Root cause analysis can be used in foodborne illness outbreak investigations to determine the underlying causes of an outbreak and to help identify actions that could be taken to prevent future outbreaks. We developed a new tool, the Quantitative Risk Assessment-Epidemic Curve Prediction Model (QRA-EC), to assist with these goals and applied it to a case study to investigate and illustrate the utility of leveraging quantitative risk assessment to provide unique insights for foodborne illness outbreak root cause analysis. We used a 2019 Salmonella outbreak linked to melons as a case study to demonstrate the utility of this model (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC], 2019). The model was used to evaluate the impact of various root cause hypotheses (representing different contamination sources and food safety system failures in the melon supply chain) on the predicted number and timeline of illnesses. The predicted number of illnesses varied by contamination source and was strongly impacted by the prevalence and level of Salmonella contamination on the surface/inside of whole melons and inside contamination niches on equipment surfaces. The timeline of illnesses was most strongly impacted by equipment sanitation efficacy for contamination niches. Evaluations of a wide range of scenarios representing various potential root causes enabled us to identify which hypotheses, were likely to result in an outbreak of similar size and illness timeline to the 2019 Salmonella melon outbreak. The QRA-EC framework can be adapted to accommodate any food–pathogen pairs to provide insights for foodborne outbreak investigations.     

Risk–risk governance in a low-carbon future: Exploring institutional,technological, and behavioral tradeoffs in climate geoengineering pathways

Deliberations are underway to utilize increasingly radical technological options to help address climate change and stabilize the climatic system. Collectively, these options are often referred to as “climate geoengineering.” Deployment of such options, however, can create wicked tradeoffs in governance and require adaptive forms of risk management. In this study, we utilize a large and novel set of qualitative expert interview data to more deeply and systematically explore the types of risk–risk tradeoffs that may emerge from the use of 20 different climate geoengineering options, 10 that focus on carbon dioxide or greenhouse gas removal, and 10 that focus on solar radiation management and reflecting sunlight. We specifically consider: What risks does the deployment of these options entail? What types of tradeoffs may emerge through their deployment? We apply a framework that clusters risk–risk tradeoffs into institutional and governance, technological and environmental, and behavioral and temporal dimensions. In doing so, we offer a more complete inventory of risk–risk tradeoffs than those currently available within the respective risk-assessment, energy-systems, and climate-change literatures, and we also point the way toward future research gaps concerning policy, deployment, and risk management.     

A probabilistic epidemiological model for infectious diseases: The case of COVID-19 at global-level

This study has developed a probabilistic epidemiological model a few weeks after the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic (based on the little data available at that time). The aim was to assess relative risks for future scenarios and evaluate the effectiveness of different management actions for 1 year ahead. We quantified, categorized, and ranked the risks for scenarios such as business as usual, and moderate and strong mitigation. We estimated that, in the absence of interventions, COVID-19 would have a 100% risk of explosion (i.e., more than 25% infections in the world population) and 34% (2.6 billion) of the world population would have been infected until the end of simulation. We analyzed the suitability of model scenarios by comparing actual values against estimated values for the first 6 weeks of the simulation period. The results proved to be more suitable with a business-as-usual scenario in Asia and moderate mitigation in the other continents. If everything went on like this, we would have 55% risk of explosion and 22% (1.7 billion) of the world population would have been infected. Strong mitigation actions in all continents could reduce these numbers to, 7% and 3% (223 million), respectively. Although the results were based on the data available in March 2020, both the model and probabilistic approach proved to be practicable and could be a basis for risk assessment in future pandemic episodes with unknown virus, especially in the early stages, when data and literature are scarce.     

The wireless network jamming problem

In adversarial environments, disabling the communication capabilities of the enemy is a high priority. We introduce the problem of determining the optimal number and locations for a set of jamming devices in order to neutralize a wireless communication network. This problem is known as the wireless network jamming problem. We develop several mathematical programming formulations based on covering the communication nodes and limiting the connectivity index of the nodes. Two case studies are presented comparing the formulations with the addition of various percentile constraints. Finally, directions of further research are addressed.     

Three explanations of marital status differences in suicide rates: social integration, marital status integration, and the culture of suicide

Our first goal is to link empirical measures of three theoretical explanations of marital status differences to the variation in male and female standardized suicide difference coefficients SSDCs in 12 developed countries, circa 1960. We include predictors of Durkheim's social integration hypothesis, Gibbs and Martin's concept of marital status integration, and norms on suicide acceptability. All three are significantly related to variation in male and female SSDCs. The second goal is to examine how our empirical indicators impact age-specific differences in the male minus female SSDC--differences that vary by age in all 12 of our study populations. The strongest predictor of these differences is the male minus female difference in the percent married.     

Spirituality and the care of patients at the end-of-life: an essential component of care

Spirituality is an essential component of the care of patients with serious illness and those that are dying. Dame Cicely Saunders developed the hospice movement based on the biopsychosocialspiritual model of care, in which all four dimensions are important in the care of patients. Of all the models of care, hospice and palliative care recognize the importance of spiritual issues in the care of patients and their families. The National Consensus Project Guidelines for Quality Palliative Care, in the United States, provides specific recommendations about all domains of care including the spiritual domain, which is recognized as a critical component of care (The National Consensus Project for Quality Palliative Care www.nationalconsensusproject.org). Studies indicate that the majority of patients would like their spiritual issues addressed, yet find that their spiritual needs are not being met by the current system of care. Interestingly, spirituality is the one dimension that seems to get slightly less emphasis than the biopsychosocial dimensions of care. Some reasons may include the difficulty with definitions of spirituality for clinical and research purposes, the time constraints and financial burdens in the current healthcare system in the United States, and the lack of uniform training for all healthcare professionals. Yet, there are theoretical and ethical frameworks that support spiritual care as well as some educational models in spirituality and health that have been successful in medical education in the United States. Spirituality can be seen as the essential part of the humanity of all people. It is at its root, relational and thus forms the basis of the altruistic care healthcare professionals are committed to. Spirituality has to do with respecting the inherent value and dignity of all persons, regardless of their health status. It is the part of humans that seeks healing, particularly in the midst of suffering. Spiritual care models are based on an intrinsic aspect that calls for compassionate presence to patients as well as an extrinsic component where healthcare professionals address spiritual issues with patients and their loved ones. Currently in the healthcare system, evidence-base models are the criteria for practice recommendations. Yet, spirituality may not be amenable entirely to strict evidence-base criteria. As hospice and palliative care continues to develop as a field, healthcare professionals are challenged to think of ways to advocate for and include the spiritual dimension of care.     

Idiocentrism, allocentrism, psychological well being and suicidal ideation: a cross cultural study

The present study examined the relationship between idiocentrism, allocentrism, psychological well being (self-esteem, depression, and social support), and suicidal ideation among 283 American college students and 343 Chinese college students. Idiocentrism was correlated with high self-esteem, high depression, and low social support, but the relationships were more likely to be significant for women than for men in both cultures. Allocentrism was primarily related to social support. As predicted, high levels of suicidal ideation were correlated with more idiocentrism, but only for women. Allocentrism was related to lower levels of suicidal ideation in both cultures, but the relationship was small. As suicide prevention may start from suicidal ideation treatment, the treatment of suicidal ideation may have to take into account cultural and personal characteristics, such as idiocentrism.     

An interactive three-stage model for mutual funds portfolio selection

The aim of this work is to be a useful instrument for helping finance practitioners on the selection of suitable mutual fund portfolios. The portfolio selection problem is characterized by imprecision and/or vagueness inherent in the required data and more generally, in the context where investors have to make decisions. In order to mitigate these problems, a three stage model has been proposed based on a multi-index model and considering several market scenarios described in an imprecise way by an expert. The proposed fuzzy model allows the Decision Maker to select, by means of an outranking method, a suitable portfolio taking into account the uncertainty related to the market scenarios and the imprecision and/or vagueness associated with the model data.