"毛主义"战略的基本特征

"毛主义"的基本内涵是在一个以农民为主体的社会结构中,按照列宁主义组织原则,建立一个由于信仰马克思列宁主义的若干基本准则而充满活力的政党。因而,这一思想体系就有异干以工人阶级为主体的苏联布尔什维克主义。毛泽东思想也因其鲜明的思想创造性,成为东方马列主义的独立流派。     

The probability of degenerate maximum-likelihood estimates with randomly truncated survival data

We study the nonparametric maximum-likelihood estimator of the marginal distribution function in bivariate data with truncated sum (Woodroofe 1985), and calculate the probability that it will assign zero probability to a range of observed values. We show that in a simple artificial model with uniform intensity in both variables the probability may be expressed using recursive formulae, and that large-sample approximations valid under weak regularity conditions show good agreement with as few as 20 observations. In the uniform-intensity model, the probability of degenerate estimates is rather small, being just over 5% with a dataset of 20 observations and falling below 1% with 125 observations. However, in a model of transfusion-associated AIDS in 125 children and adults (Kalbfleisch and Lawless 1989), the probability of degenerate estimates is much larger—about 30% with 20 observations and 3% with the actual 125 observations. This is largely because both the infection and incubation density are increasing over time. Such a pattern makes the condition for degeneracy, i.e., relatively high observed intensity at extreme values of each variable, much more likely.     

Race-Ethnic Differences in Sexual Health Knowledge

Despite extensive research examining the correlates of unintended fertility, it remains a puzzle as to why racial and ethnic minorities are more likely to experience an unintended birth than non-Hispanic whites. This paper focuses on sexual literacy, a potential precursor of unintended fertility. Analyses use a unique dataset of unmarried young adults aged 18?C29, the 2009 Survey of Unmarried Young Adults?? Contraceptive Knowledge and Practices, to examine beliefs regarding pregnancy risks, pregnancy fatalism, and contraceptive side effects. At the bivariate level, foreign-born Hispanics hold more erroneous beliefs about the risk of pregnancy than other groups, and non-Hispanic blacks are more likely to believe in contraceptive side effects than non-Hispanic whites. Both foreign-born Hispanics and non-Hispanic blacks are more likely than non-Hispanic whites to hold a fatalistic view toward pregnancy. Race-ethnic differences are attenuated for pregnancy misperceptions and fatalism in multivariate models controlling for sources of health information, sexual and fertility experiences, and sociodemographic characteristics. However, non-Hispanic blacks remain more likely than non-Hispanic whites to believe there is a high chance of reduced sexual desire and serious health consequences when using hormonal contraceptives. These differences may contribute to race-ethnic variation in contraceptive use and, ultimately, unintended fertility.     

The Need to Reconcile Concepts that Characterize Systems Facing Threats

Desirable system performance in the face of threats has been characterized by various management concepts. Through semistructured interviews with editors of journals in the fields of emergency response and systems management, a literature review, and professional judgment, we identified nine related and often interchangeably used system performance concepts: adaptability, agility, reliability, resilience, resistance, robustness, safety, security, and sustainability. A better understanding of these concepts will allow system planners to pursue management strategies best suited to their unique system dynamics and specific objectives of good performance. We analyze expert responses and review the linguistic definitions and mathematical framing of these concepts to understand their applications. We find a lack of consensus on their usage between interview subjects, but by using the mathematical framing to enrich the linguistic definitions, we formulate comparative visualizations and propose distinct definitions for the nine concepts. We present a conceptual framing to relate the concepts for management purposes.     

Toward a Regeneration of Revolutionary Theory

Revolutionary theorists are currently immersed in a critical debate about the future of the field. Allinson has argued that a fifth generation of revolutionary theory has passed us by without our noticing, while I have contended that it is revolutionary theory's fourth generation that is decidedly imperilled. Ritter and Beck – for their part- contend that we should reject the very idea of theoretical ‘generations’, and instead think of progress in revolutionary theory as a series of ongoing and settled debates about certain key topics. The pair contend that revolutionary theory has reached a consensus on two core debates: defining our object of study and determining appropriate methods. Contrary to this position, I argue that while there is much to praise about rejecting generational imagery, doing so necessarily entails that we also critique the self-proclaimed ‘fourth generation' with which such imagery is intertwined. Furthermore, I argue that there does not yet exist consensus among revolutionary theorists about a single definition of revolution, or on the question of which methods to use. Finally, I call for a regeneration of revolutionary theory which moves genuinely beyond the generational mythologies of the past.     

Research on Marital Satisfaction and Stability in the 2010s: Challenging Conventional Wisdom

Although getting married is no longer a requirement for social acceptance, most people do marry in their lifetimes, and couples across the socioeconomic spectrum wish their marriages to be satisfying and long lasting. This review evaluates the past decade of research on the determinants of satisfaction and stability in marriage, concluding that the scholarship of the past 10 years has undermined three assumptions that were formerly accepted as conventional wisdom. First, research exploiting methods such as latent class growth analyses reveal that, for most couples, marital satisfaction does not decline over time but in fact remains relatively stable for long periods. Second, contrary to predictions of behavioral models of marriage, negative communication between spouses can be difficult to change, does not necessarily lead to more satisfying relationships when it is changed, and does not always predict distress in the first place. Third, dyadic processes that are reliably adaptive for middle-class and more affluent couples may operate differently in lower income couples, suggesting that influential models of marriage may not generalize to couples living in diverse environments. Thus, the accumulated research of the past 10 years indicates that the tasks of understanding and promoting marital satisfaction and stability are more complex than we appreciated at the start of the decade, raising important questions that beg to be answered in the years ahead.     

EARLY EVIDENCE ON RECREATIONAL MARIJUANA LEGALIZATION AND TRAFFIC FATALITIES

Over the last few years, marijuana has become legally available for recreational use to roughly a quarter of Americans. Policy makers have long expressed concerns about the substantial external costs of alcohol, and similar costs could come with the liberalization of marijuana policy. Indeed, the fraction of fatal accidents in which at least one driver tested positive for tetrahydrocannabinol has increased nationwide by an average of 10% from 2013 to 2016. For Colorado and Washington, both of which legalized marijuana in 2014, these increases were 92% and 28%, respectively. However, identifying a causal effect is difficult due to the presence of significant confounding factors. We test for a causal effect of marijuana legalization on traffic fatalities in Colorado and Washington with a synthetic control approach using records on fatal traffic accidents from 2000 to 2016. We find the synthetic control groups saw similar changes in marijuana-related, alcohol-related, and overall traffic fatality rates despite not legalizing recreational marijuana. (JEL K42, I12, I18)     

“Big Brother’s Bigger Brother”: The Visual Politics of (Counter) Surveillance in Baltimore

In 2016, without the knowledge of its citizens, Baltimore City Police deployed a military aerial surveillance technology called Wide Area Motion Imagery (WAMI), which can track the movements of every person in public view over the entire city. Though the trial of the “spy plane,” as the program was dubbed, quickly ended in scandal, organizers from Baltimore’s low-income minority neighborhoods successfully rebooted the program in 2020, this time framing WAMI partly as a tool of “sousveillance” (watching “from below”) that can track the movements of police officers. The paper shows how organizers “rebranded” WAMI around two conceptions of sousveillance—“citizen-centered” and “state-centered”—creating an unlikely coalition of supporters from both pro- and anti-policing sides of the criminal justice reform debate. But while the renewed program has vowed to be a “Big Brother” to the state, it will continue to be used for traditional surveillance, raising troubling questions about privacy. The article sheds light on the politics of watching and being watched in the era of technology-driven criminal justice reform.     

Predicting Maternal Resolution of Preterm Birth at One Month Corrected Age

Early maternal resolution with preterm birth was assessed at one month corrected age (CA), and potential maternal and infant characteristics that may be associated with early resolution were examined. Fifty‐five mothers of preterm infants (≤34 weeks) participated. Data regarding pregnancy, prenatal risk, delivery, infant's medical risk, maternal well‐being status, and infant's early developmental status were collected. Resolution was examined using the Reaction to Diagnosis Interview (RDI). A total of 38.2% of the mothers were classified as resolved. Only completion of antenatal corticosteroids (ACS) treatment and high prenatal risk significantly predicted maternal resolution. Early maternal resolution of preterm birth is associated with early knowledge regarding the preterm birth.