Metapreferences and the reasons for stability in social choice: Thoughts on broadening and clarifying the debate

The standard model of collective choice looks at aggregation procedures which take individual preferences as existing for a specified set of alternatives. In this paper we propose that actors also have preferences for rules of choice or characteristics of choice processes (e.g., the perceived fairness of procedures or the popularity of outcomes) rather than simply for alternatives (outcomes) themselves. We argue that the positing of the existence of meta-preferences can illuminate a number of areas of choice theory. Here we focus on one such area: the problem of “too much” stability in majority rule decision making - a stability which belies the standard theoretical results on the generic instability of majority rule processes. We also show that discussion of the prevalence of stability in collective decision making needs to be clarified because there are at least six distinct types of stability which are sometimes confounded in the literature.     

The Social Sharing of Emotion as an Interface Between Individual and Collective Processes in the Construction of Emotional Climates

The study of private emotional experiences reveals that an emotion is typically followed by social sharing. Additionally, the target's responses stimulate the sharing person's emotional expression. The reciprocal stimulation of interactants favors empathy and emotional communion. Consequences are two-fold: (1) the sharing process reactivates emotional arousal in both agent and target, and (2) it strengthens social bonds. Sharing targets also share what they heard with others, who then experience a similar need. Social sharing also develops when an emotional event strikes collectively. In this case, however, the propagation consequences are geared up in a spectacular manner both because there are as many sharing sources as there are members in the community and because every sharing reactivates felt emotions among interactants, thus reloading the propagation flow. It is argued that such chain reactions contribute to construct an emotional climate in the concerned community. It is predicted that emotion sharing would impact (1) on emotional climate in general; (2) on group cohesion and solidarity, with positive consequences for emotional climate; and (3) on collective memory, with potential consequences for emotional climate in the long run. Each of these predictions is detailed and illustrated with available empirical evidence.     

How Dangerous Is Low Level Radiation?

Problems in the theoretical basis for the linear-no threshold theory of radiation carcinogenesis are reviewed, and it is shown that they very strongly suggest that the theory greatly overestimates the risk of low level radiation. A direct test of the theory, based on the radon—lung cancer relationship is described; it strongly reinforces that conclusion. However, it is shown that even if the linear-no threshold theory is valid, the public's fear of low level radiation, at least in some contexts, is grossly exaggerated.     

A simplified taxonomy of 2 × 2 games

All 2 × 2 games are classified into eight configurations, following three natural criteria, and prototypes given for each, especially as concerns the Newcomb and chain-store paradoxes. Two pseudo-dynamic properties, move priority and dynamic inconsistency, are examined in that framework, as well as more specifically, the problem of the origin of social institutions.     

Estimation bayesienne des effets dans le modele a effets aleatoires de classification double avec interaction

The problem of estimating the effects in a balanced two-way classification with interaction \documentclass{article}\pagestyle{empty}\begin{document}$i = 1, \ldots ,I;j = 1, \ldots ,J;k = 1, \ldots ,K$\end{document} using a random effect model is considered from a Bayesian view point. Posterior distributions of r_i, c_j and t_ij are obtained under the assumptions that r_i, c_j, t_ij and e_ijk are all independently drawn from normal distributions with zero meansand variances \documentclass{article}\pagestyle{empty}\begin{document}$\sigma _r^2 ,\sigma _c^2 ,\sigma _t^2 ,\sigma _e^2$\end{document} respectively. A non informative reference prior is adopted for \documentclass{article}\pagestyle{empty}\begin{document}$\mu ,\sigma _r^2 ,\sigma _c^2 ,\sigma _t^2 ,\sigma _e^2$\end{document}. Various features of thisposterior distribution are obtained. The same features of the psoterior distribution for a fixed effect model are also obtained. A numerical example is given.     

Organization of the planning department in a divisionalized concern

This article is based upon an assignment carried out by the author concerned with organization for planning in a company formed as a result of a merger. Possible organizational solutions are discussed and the recommendations of the author and his colleague outlined.     

Probabilistic Risk Analysis for a High-Level Radioactive Waste Repository

A probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) for a high-level radioactive waste repository is very important since it gives an estimate of its health impacts, allowing comparisons to be made with the health impacts of competing technologies. However, it is extremely difficult to develop a credible PRA for a specific repository site because of large uncertainties in future climate, hydrology, geological processes, etc. At best, such a PRA would not be understandable to the public. An alternative proposed here is to develop a PRA for an average U.S. site, taking all properties of the site to be the U.S. average. The results are equivalent to the average results for numerous randomly selected sites. Such a PRA is presented here; it is easy to understand, and it is not susceptible to substantial uncertainty. Applying the results to a specific repository site then requires only a simple, intuitively acceptable "leap of faith" in assuming that with large expenditures of effort and money, experts can select a site that would be at least as secure as a randomly selected site.