PARAMETER ESTIMATION FOR LOW-ORDER AUTO-REGRESSIVE MODELS WITH MISSING VALUES

Longitudinal data analysis in epidemiological settings is complicated by large multiplicities of short time series and the occurrence of missing observations. To handle such difficulties Rosner & Muñoz (1988) developed a weighted non-linear least squares algorithm for estimating parameters for first-order autoregressive (AR1) processes with time-varying covariates. This method proved efficient when compared to complete case procedures. Here that work is extended by (1) introducing a different estimation procedure based on the EM algorithm, and (2) formulating estimation techniques for second-order autoregressive models. The second development is important because some of the intended areas of application (adult pulmonary function decline, childhood blood pressure) have autocorrelation functions which decay more slowly than the geometric rate imposed by an AR1 model. Simulation studies are used to compare the three methodologies (non-linear, EM based and complete case) with respect to bias, efficiency and coverage both in the presence and in the absence of time-varying covariates. Differing degrees and mechanisms of missingness are examined. Preliminary results indicate the non-linear approach to be the method of choice: it has high efficiency and is easily implemented. An illustrative example concerning pulmonary function decline in the Netherlands is analyzed using this method.     

The Precautionary Principle and/or Risk Assessment in World Trade Organization Decisions: A Possible Role for Risk Perception

Risk analysis has been recognized and validated in World Trade Organization (WTO) decision processes. In recent years the precautionary principle has been proposed as an additional or alternative approach to standard risk assessment. The precautionary principle has also been advocated by some who see it as part of postmodern democracy in which more power is given to the public on health and safety matters relative to the judgments of technocrats. A more cynical view is that the precautionary principle is particularly championed by the European Community as a means to erect trade barriers. The WTO ruling against the European Community's trade barrier against beef from hormone-treated cattle seemed to support the use of risk assessment and appeared to reject the argument that the precautionary principle was a legitimate basis for trade barriers. However, a more recent WTO decision on asbestos contains language suggesting that the precautionary principle, in the form of taking into account public perception, may be acceptable as a basis for a trade barrier. This decision, if followed in future WTO trade disputes, such as for genetically modified foods, raises many issues central to the field of risk analysis. It is too early to tell whether the precautionary principle will become accepted in WTO decisions, either as a supplement or a substitute for standard risk assessment. But it would undermine the value of the precautionary principle if this principle were misused to justify unwarranted trade barriers.     

Systematic Generation of Theory in Family Sociology*

This paper describes a procedure for facilitating the generation of theory useful to family sociologists. This procedure is based upon a linguistic model, and it utilizes the metaphor of literary genre as a guide. A distinction is made between the construction and the generation of sociological theory. The suggestion is made that the generation perspective may enhance the ability of theorists to find subtle interconnections among phenomena and thereby to extend fields of sociological knowledge along novel paths. The procedure itself depends first upon the construction of a binary lexicon. One such lexicon consists of one matrix of concepts describing social structure from the perspective of stabilization of social relations and a complementary matrix describing structure from the perspective of destabilization. From these matrices, one concept is chosen as a metonym or as a metaphor to act as a basis for deriving connections among the other concepts in the matrices. The manipulation of concepts from both matrices permits the development of propositions suggesting ironies and contradictions in social relations. Examples of the use of this procedure are presented, and some unresolved problems are described.     

Adolescents' beliefs about marijuana use: a comparison of regular users, past users and never/occasional users

A questionnaire investigating adolescents' opinions and experiences regarding marijuana use was administered to 163 adolescents and young adults (96 boys and 67 girls) aged 13 to 20 (mean age = 16.8, s.d. = 1.5). Items referred to marijuana and other substances' dangerousness, representations regarding the positive and negative consequences of marijuana use. Responses were compared according to marijuana use status (classified into never/occasional use, current regular use and past regular use). Results show that adolescents' opinions differ according to their experience with marijuana use. Current regular users evaluate marijuana as less dangerous, but alcohol and heroin as more dangerous in comparison with never/occasional and past users. Current and past users are more likely to define marijuana as a medical drug and a plant used in agriculture, and less likely to define it as an illegal drug. Current and past users evaluate marijuana use as a way to cope with stress, to relax to a greater extent than do never/occasional users do. The latter attribute more negative consequences to marijuana use such as diminished driving ability and school performance and a pathway to hard drugs.