Evidence that Two‐Year‐Old Children are Sensitive to Information Presented in Arguments

Preschoolers are more likely to endorse testimony supported by strong arguments than by weak, circular ones. Two‐year‐olds exchange arguments with others, but no experiment has demonstrated that they are sensitive to information presented as argument. In the first phase of this study, 2‐year‐olds were shown ambiguous pictures—for instance a bird–fish hybrid—and asked what they thought the picture represented. An informant then contradicted them, providing either a strong argument, a circular argument, or no argument, and the children were asked what they now thought the hybrid was. The second phase was identical to the first, with new hybrids, except that the informant never provided any argument for her position. Finally, in the third phase, the informant left the room and the children were asked again to tell what the hybrids from the first two phases were. On the whole, there was an effect of the amount of information provided in the argument so that children were more likely to endorse labels provided by the informant who had supported her answer with a strong argument in the first phase. Moreover, they generalized the trust granted to informants who provided strong arguments. These results constitute the first experimental demonstration that 2‐year‐olds possess some argument evaluation skills.     

Optimal and lead-in adaptive allocation for binary outcomes: A comparison of Bayesian methods

We compare posterior and predictive estimators and probabilities in response-adaptive randomization designs for two- and three-group clinical trials with binary outcomes. Adaptation based upon posterior estimates are discussed, as are two predictive probability algorithms: one using the traditional definition, the other using a skeptical distribution. Optimal and natural lead-in designs are covered. Simulation studies show that efficacy comparisons lead to more adaptation than center comparisons, though at some power loss, skeptically predictive efficacy comparisons and natural lead-in approaches lead to less adaptation but offer reduced allocation variability. Though nuanced, these results help clarify the power-adaptation trade-off in adaptive randomization.     

Subsequent Migration of Immigrants Within Australia, 1981–2016

Australia is a major immigration country and immigrants currently represent around 28% of the total population. The aim of this research is to understand the long-term consequences of this immigration and, particularly, how migrants respond to opportunities within the country after arriving through the process of subsequent (internal) migration. The focus is on major immigrant groups in Australia, including persons born in the United Kingdom, New Zealand, China and India, and how their patterns differ from persons born in Australia. To conduct this analysis, we have gathered data for a 35-year period based on quinquennial census data. We also obtained birthplace-specific mortality data for constructing multiregional life tables for the immigrant populations. Subsequent migration is important for understanding population redistribution, and the relative attractiveness of destinations within host countries. Our results highlight the importance of subsequent migration and the diversity of migration behaviours amongst different immigrant groups in the context of overall declines in internal migration since 1981.     

A SIMULATION ANALYSIS OF THE JAPANESE JUST-IN-TIME TECHNIQUE (WITH KANBANS) FOR A MULTILINE,MULTISTAGE PRODUCTION SYSTEM

The Japanese “just-in-time with kanban” technique reduces in-process inventory to absolute minimal levels, in concert with the Japanese belief that inventory is an unnecessary evil. Due to the success of Japanese firms that employ this type of system, American firms would like to import this technique and emulate Japanese successes. But this Japanese success may be attributable not only to the just-in-time with kanban technique but also to the production environment in which the technique is employed. This paper simulates the just-in-time with kanban technique for a multiline, multistage production system in order to determine its adaptability to an American production environment that might include such characteristics as variable processing times, variable master production scheduling, and imbalances between production stages. The results have practical implications for those firms considering adoption of the Japanese technique.     

A New Kuznetsian Dynamic: The Knowledge Economy and Income Inequality in the United States, 1917–2008

The rise of the knowledge economy resulted in higher levels of income inequality in the United States and forced many to question the Kuznets Inverted‐U hypothesis. However, this study argues that the establishment of a knowledge economy does not negate the importance of employment shifts for income inequality. Instead, the expansion of knowledge employment alters the major sectors that are responsible for the overall distribution of income. To this end, this article presents the key argument that the current service–knowledge transition impacts income inequality trends, of today, in a way that is similar to the agricultural–industrial transition, of the past. According to the autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity regressions, the agricultural–industrial transition returns stronger associations with income inequality in the United States before 1950. The agricultural–industrial transition's impact diminishes thereafter as the service–knowledge transition shares a more robust association with income inequality after 1980.     

On evaluating interactive statistical program packages

Most statistical computing for data analysis has come to depend upon statistical program packages. In recent years, interactive computing has become widespread both on large time-sharing systems and on mini-computers. This paper identifies ways in which interactive statistical software packages differ from batchoriented software and discusses evaluation considerations pertaining specifically to interactive packages.     

Children's response to the medical visit for allegations of sexual abuse: maternal perceptions and predicting variables

This study examined maternal perceptions of their child's response to the medical evaluation for alleged sexual abuse. A total of 50 mothers were interviewed 6 months after a visit to a Child Protection Clinic for a medical evaluation of alleged sexual abuse. The mothers answered a questionnaire on their child's reactions to the medical visit. More than 60% of children were perceived as being reassured about physical integrity. The degree of psychological distress was independent of perpetrator's identity and severity of the abuse. Mothers considered that a hypothetical second visit would generate in their child a level of anxiety that increased with perceived intensity of fear of the examination and decreased with perceived kindness of the physician. These results suggest that the physician's behaviour during the medical evaluation for alleged sexual abuse has an influence on the child's degree of distress that is independent of type and severity of abuse. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Moment expressions and summary statistics for the complete and truncated weibull distribution

Traditionally, the moments of the Weibull distribution have been calculated using the standard Weibull (Johnson and Kotz, 1970) . This article will expand on that idea and cover the truncated cases for the standard Weibull distributions. Also, the same techniques used for the standard form will be used to derive the moment expressions for the three-parameter complete and truncated Weibull distributions. The summary statistics are then calculated from the moment expressions. Weibull moments involve the gamma and incomplete gamma functions.