Combining forecast quantiles using quantile regression: Investigating the derived weights, estimator bias and imposing constraints

SUMMARY A novel proposal for combining forecast distributions is to use quantile regression to combine quantile estimates. We consider the usefulness of the resultant linear combining weights. If the quantile estimates are unbiased, then there is strong intuitive appeal for omitting the constant and constraining the weights to sum to unity in the quantile regression. However, we show that suppressing the constant renders one of the main attractive features of quantile regression invalid. We establish necessary and sufficient conditions for unbiasedness of a quantile estimate, and show that a combination with zero constant and weights that sum to unity is not necessarily unbiased.     

Household debt and financial assets: evidence from Germany, Great Britain and the USA

Summary.  We explore the determinants of debt, financial assets and net worth at the household level by using survey data for Germany, Great Britain and the USA. To identify which households are potentially vulnerable to adverse changes in the economic environment, we also explore the determinants of a range of measures of financial pressure: the probability that a household has negative net worth; the debt-to-income ratio; mortgage income gearing; the saving-to-income ratio. Our empirical findings suggest that the poorest and the youngest households are the most vulnerable to adverse changes in their financial circumstances.     

Conventional and expanded adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and maternal functioning among low-income Black mothers

A paucity of research has examined the individual and cumulative effects of conventional and expanded adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) on maternal functioning, especially among low-income Black mothers. Using self-report data from a subsample of Black mothers (N = 157) who participated in a larger study to evaluate the effectiveness of an urban public prekindergarten program in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States, we examined the prevalence of ACEs and the individual and cumulative effects of conventional (i.e., family trauma and dysfunction) and expanded (i.e., community stressors) ACEs on depression and health among low-income Black mothers. Findings indicated that Black mothers had more exposure to expanded than conventional ACEs. Hierarchical regression analyses revealed that experience of physical neglect was significantly associated with depression and physical abuse with compromised health, and perceived experience of racism was a predictor of depression and compromised health. More conventional and expanded ACEs were associated with clinical levels of depression and compromised health. Findings highlight the need for more research related to the impact of ACEs, especially expanded ACEs, on mental and behavioural health outcomes. Additionally, our findings indicate the need for more trauma-informed care to reduce and address the impact of individual and community-level adversities on low-income Black mothers.     

An Evaluation of a Child Guidance Clinic

An attempt is made to evaluate the effectiveness of a child guidance clinic. The outcome of the clinic's intervention was found to vary according to the nature of the presenting problem and the social class of the client. The categories of problems where treatment was ineffective are discussed in detail.     

Serious case reviews: The lived experience of Black children

Despite the many high‐profile Black child deaths in England, race as a factor remains a largely underexplored factor of serious case reviews (SCRs). Evidence from analysis of SCRs indicates that race receives limited attention, or is virtually absent. Given that the main function of SCRs is to provide opportunities for learning lessons to improve practice, the way in which issues of race and culture may influence child protection processes for Black children is therefore of critical importance. In this article, we employ content analysis to examine the extent that race and cultural factors are considered in SCRs involving Black children. It is argued that race is often an important factor influencing Black children's experiences of abuse and neglect, as well as their encounters in the child protection system. This article therefore poses two key questions: (a) What questions are asked about race, ethnicity, and culture in SCRs concerning Black children? (b) How did the SCRs extract lessons to be learnt for improving practice to safeguard Black children? By extending the analysis of race and ethnicity in SCRs, this article furthers our understandings of the needs of Black children in the child protection system.     

Supportive Housing for Addicted,Incarcerated Homeless Adults

ABSTRACT

Homeless populations often suffer from mental illness, substance abuse, and criminality. Interventions, such as supportive housing, can have positive impacts, although benefits can be limited. This study examined outcomes for clients (N = 102) of a new supportive housing intervention. Use of formal treatment, jail contact, and community stability were compared pre- and post-housing. Jail bookings and residential substance abuse treatment significantly declined post-housing, while clients improved in income level, access to food, and housing stability. Results from official justice and treatment system data suggest that supportive housing can lead to significant changes. Future research is necessary to understand the relationship between client characteristics and outcomes.     

A sociology of hackers

Illicit computer intruders, or hackers, are often thought of as pathological individuals rather than as members of a community. However, hackers exist within social groups that provide expertise, support, training, journals and conferences. This article outlines this community to establish the nature of hacking within ‘information societies’. To delineate a ‘sociology of hackers’, an introduction is provided to the nature of computer–mediated communication and the act of computer intrusion, the hack. Following this the hacking community is explored in three sections. First, a profile of the number of hackers and hacks is provided by exploring available demographics. Second, an outline of its culture is provided through a discussion of six different aspects of the hacking community. The six aspects are technology, secrecy, anonymity, membership fluidity, male dominance and motivations. Third, an exploration of the community's construction of a boundary, albeit fluid, between itself and its other, the computer security industry, is provided. This boundary is constructed through metaphors whose central role is to establish the ethical nature of hacking. Finally, a conclusion that rejects any pathologisation of hackers is offered.     

Social influences on sorority and fraternity member smoking

Objective: To understand how the Greek system uniquely influences smoking attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors among college students who belong to a social sorority or fraternity. Participants: Active members of sororities (n = 16) and fraternities (n = 17) were interviewed between February 2013 and October 2015. Methods: In-depth interviews were conducted examining the social influences of the Greek system on member smoking. Transcribed interviews were coded and analyzed for themes. Results: Sorority and fraternity members experienced different social influences on smoking. Sorority stigmatization of smoking outside bars or parties caused sorority members to hide their smoking. Fraternity members had no social penalties for smoking and allowed smoking at the fraternity house. Fraternity members influenced both fraternity members and sorority members to smoke by sharing cigarettes and smoking at parties. Conclusions: Sororities and fraternities have created social environments that both promote smoking and stigmatize it, presenting unique challenges in college student smoking prevention and cessation efforts.     

Realistic Free-Spins Features Increase Preference for Slot Machines

Despite increasing research into how the structural characteristics of slot machines influence gambling behaviour there have been no experimental investigations into the effect of free-spins bonus features—a structural characteristic that is commonly central to the design of slot machines. This series of three experiments investigated the free-spins feature using slot machine simulations to determine whether participants allocate more wagers to a machine with free spins, and, which components of free-spins features drive this preference. In each experiment, participants were exposed to two computer-simulated slot machines—one with a free-spins feature or similar bonus feature and one without. Participants then completed a testing phase where they could freely switch between the two machines. In Experiment 1, participants did not prefer the machine with a simple free-spins feature. In Experiment 2 the free-spins feature incorporated additional elements such as sounds, animations, and an increased win frequency; participants preferred to gamble on this machine. The Experiment 3 “bonus feature” machine resembled the free spins machine in Experiment 2 except spins were not free; participants showed a clear preference for this machine also. These findings indicate that (1) free-spins features have a major influence over machine choice and (2) the “freeness” of the free-spins bonus features is not an important driver of preference, contrary to self-report and interview research with gamblers.