The use of traditional and modern methods of fertility control in Kinshasa, Zaire

Abstract The practice of post-partum abstinence has been a long-standing tradition in many societies of tropical Africa, yet recent research suggests an erosion of the taboo on post-partum sexual relations as a means of fertility control. The current study among women in the lower income groups in Kinshasa, Zaire, provides evidence of this. There is strong motivation toward child-spacing, as shown by 80 per cent of the women who reported to be currently practising some means of fertility control: 73 per cent with traditional methods, only 7 per cent with modern contraceptives. There appears to be some carry-over of traditional practice, in that abstinence is related to the age and nursing status of the last born child. However, the most widely practised method is withdrawal. This suggests a desire on the part of this population for alternatives to abstinence, an issue with important implications for future family planning programs in Zaire.     

白家海凸起—阜北斜坡八道湾组储层特征研究

利用岩石薄片、铸体薄片鉴定、X–衍射、扫描电镜和压汞等资料，对白家海凸起—阜北斜坡侏罗系八道湾组的储层特征进行了研究，分析了储层的成岩作用类型、成岩演化序列、成岩作用对孔隙结构的影响及孔隙演化史。研究结果表明：八道湾组储层以岩屑砂岩为主储集空间以粒内溶孔和粒间溶孔为主，孔隙度经历了多期的演化过程，由原始的高孔隙度演化为现今低孔隙度。     

Correlation and variable importance in random forests

This paper is about variable selection with the random forests algorithm in presence of correlated predictors. In high-dimensional regression or classification frameworks, variable selection is a difficult task, that becomes even more challenging in the presence of highly correlated predictors. Firstly we provide a theoretical study of the permutation importance measure for an additive regression model. This allows us to describe how the correlation between predictors impacts the permutation importance. Our results motivate the use of the recursive feature elimination (RFE) algorithm for variable selection in this context. This algorithm recursively eliminates the variables using permutation importance measure as a ranking criterion. Next various simulation experiments illustrate the efficiency of the RFE algorithm for selecting a small number of variables together with a good prediction error. Finally, this selection algorithm is tested on the Landsat Satellite data from the UCI Machine Learning Repository.     

Financial journeys of Australian parents after separation – transitions into and out of poverty

It is well established that relationship separation has greater negative economic consequences for mothers than for fathers in Australia and other developed countries. While research has shown that, at an aggregate level, such negative impacts tend to diminish with time, the rate of change is generally slower for mothers than fathers, and a higher proportion of mothers than fathers continue to experience entrenched financial difficulties. Less is known about the variability of economic journeys experienced by women and men, taken separately, and factors influencing diverse economic trajectories. Drawing on data from the Longitudinal Study of Separated Families (LSSF), which followed up a large sample parents at three post‐separation points, this article examines poverty rates across a 4‐year period, transitions into and out of poverty and factors affecting these pathways.     

论艾伦·伍德对资本主义民主的批判

艾伦·伍德基于历史唯物主义对经济和政治的连续性的分析,以民主为切入点,借鉴古雅典经济民主和政治民主相统一的洞见,揭示了资本主义民主的虚假性。伍德的观点既有助于我们认识资本主义民主的本质,也有助于我们从经济民主和政治民主相统一的维度重新思考社会主义民主,建构社会主义民主制度。     

Trends in Mortality Decrease and Economic Growth

The vast literature on extrapolative stochastic mortality models focuses mainly on the extrapolation of past mortality trends and summarizes the trends by one or more latent factors. However, the interpretation of these trends is typically not very clear. On the other hand, explanation methods are trying to link mortality dynamics with observable factors. This serves as an intermediate step between the two methods. We perform a comprehensive analysis on the relationship between the latent trend in mortality dynamics and the trend in economic growth represented by gross domestic product (GDP). Subsequently, the Lee-Carter framework is extended through the introduction of GDP as an additional factor next to the latent factor, which provides a better fit and better interpretable forecasts.     

中国商品流通现代化的模糊综合评价研究

完善了商品流通现代化指标体系,并运用模糊综合法将商品流通现代化指标转换成了指数。研究发现商品流通现代化水平与其区域位置、总体经济实力密切相关,且受到产业结构的影响。同时,通过基于指数的聚类分析得到如下结论:"率先发展型区域"要抓住历史机遇,培养创新型人才,保持领先地位;"积极追赶型区域"要发挥地理优势,打破省之间、行业和部门之间、所有制之间的界限,积极参与各种区域经济合作;"流通欠发达型区域"要进一步推进和实施西部大开发战略,推进物流现代化。     

川南都掌蛮铜鼓文化探讨

在历史上拥有巨量铜鼓的川南都掌蛮 ,既是铜鼓的使用者 ,又是铜鼓的铸造者和铜鼓文化的原创者。都掌蛮铜鼓在使用、流传过程中 ,充分发挥了伴歌节舞、媚事鬼神和夸富显贵、集众征战的社会功能 ,铜鼓是都掌蛮的神灵之物 ,也是财富与权力的象征。都掌蛮铜鼓文化与悬棺葬俗交融渗透、融为一体 ,不仅极大地丰富了铜鼓文化的内涵 ,更从本质上表现出铜鼓文化是都掌蛮古老民族文化的重要特征     

境内外人民币汇率影响研究——基于香港离岸市场双重功能分析的视角

利用2014年8月1日-2015年4月17日的人民币即期汇率和香港离岸汇率数据,基于VAR模型,研究了香港离岸市场对境内外人民币汇率影响的方向及其经济后果.研究发现,在样本期间内,人民币离岸汇率贬值而在岸即期汇率却在升值;离岸汇率波动幅度显著大于在岸即期汇率.汇率的影响方向为离岸市场向在岸市场传递.研究结论对于评估离岸市场对人民币汇率的影响,防范人民币国际化对境内经济冲击风险以及加强离岸市场监管具有重要启示.